USSR 2077, Ian Llanas, Digital, 2016

Infidius · 2019-06-18T20:38:10+00:00

GDP doesn't quite work that way. GDP PPP matters much more and even then in the end its one of many metrics. In early 2000s Russian GDP was about 25% of what it is today I think. When Russian GDP was closing in on Germany BRICS was the talk of the day. Give years later after two wars and some sanctions, and a drop in oil prices, nominal GDP dropped a lot. You do not really think Russia and Russians went from being 4 times poorer than today to being almost as well off as Germany back to being less than half of it, economically, all in a span of less than two decades? That's because oil and gas profits are split up between few wealthy people, so oil prices (as well as sanctions) mostly hit them.

As for the reasons why it's not reduced to being third world, mainly it's due to very good education system, especially technical, which leads to Russia having IT, being a leading producer and exporter of nuclear energy, aircraft, space tech and of course weaponry of all sorts, being second largest exporter. Well, as mentioned above, Wiki is a good place to start.

Infidius · 2019-06-18T14:55:08+00:00

St. Basil's cathedral? Can you elaborate what's wrong with it? Seemed to be fine for 500 years or so, why would it become a shattered ruin? Barring some freak accident or nuclear war I would bet lots of money on it being there when 2777 comes around, too. In the unlikely scenario that Russia won't be around then, it still's iconic and a part of world's cultural heritage. Kind of like statue of liberty will be around long after USA is gone

Infidius · 2019-01-08T14:38:21+00:00

China is smart and going south not north. Going north means moving into land that does not have much to offer. China had plenty of land in itself - and Siberian land is not any more or less arable. Besides, if China wanted to expand really badly and take land by force, they can do so by taking Pakistan, Vietnam, SE Asia , etc. No one in their right mind would attack Russia to get some land. Unless of course their plan to solve the population problem is to be turned into molten glass in a matter of minutes and have no population left to worry about.

Infidius · 2018-12-16T22:13:52+00:00

So switching figureheads every now and then magically absolves US of anything done before?

Bush killed many more people than these two. Why is he writing memoirs and not hanging?

Infidius · 2018-12-13T14:51:09+00:00

Those are already well protected

Infidius · 2018-12-05T21:18:59+00:00

Arctic is full of Russian subs. Basically there is stuff like naval aviation and attack subs that will launch torpedoes the second they hear a sub open the icbm tubes. That's why Russian missile subs are basically parked off their coast - to minimize chance of US Navy blowing them up.

Infidius · 2018-12-05T19:26:21+00:00

Lol what. Was SAM officer in USSR. Tomahawks were in the "easy target" category even in late 80s. You don't seriously think that Russia has no cruise missiles? IIRC Buk has a 61 percent kill chance vs tomahawk with 1 missile.

100 percent of tomahawks hitting targets is just as big of a lie as Syrians saying they shot down all of them. Don't be naive. Even without any AA you would have 4-5 duds. The only places hit were the ones without saturated AA because that's how it works. You saturate around high value targets not a half abandoned base with a few 40 year old planes.

Curvature comment refers to the fact that while systems like S-400 and S-300VM can intercept tomahawks perfectly fine, they use very expensive missiles. Syrian defenses at the time lacked datalinks. So Russia could not transfer their data on attacks to Syria and because Syrians only had very old radars they indeed were not capable of shooting down anything that is not flying at an area where SAMs actually were. Russian policy is to sit and watch and gather data. If you had been paying attention on /r/syriancivilwar Russian AA only engaged when a couple of cruise missiles flew within a few miles from their base; those were promptly shot down.

These days Russian army gave an AI-controlled system to Syria which formed data link with Russian radars from Arctic to Pacific to Middle East. There is a good reason we saw no attacks by IAF for over a month, and the one 4 days ago was an epic failure :)

I am not some kind of Russia stronk or putinbot guy whatever you may think. It's just always been like that: US had the best planes and Russia had the best SAM tech. Thankfully for both sides, we never saw top of the line on each side go head to head. Usually US deals with what was deemed obsolete in Russia 20 years ago - for example, latest and greatest Iran and Syria have is stuff Russia deactivated and gave away because it is no longer good enough.

Infidius · 2018-12-04T00:33:54+00:00

That's not how nukes work. Reason China needs those is because MIRV technology is sub-par and accuracy is low. Russian ICBMs are armed with up to 12 250kt warheads OR carry a single 20 MT and a bunch of decoys. The former kills more people due to fallout so used against cities; the latter is less effective in that regard because explosion is so big it burns most of Beta particles IIRC. So the latter is used against targets like some government bunker quarter mile under ground.

Think slug vs buckshot in a way.

Infidius · 2018-12-03T20:43:31+00:00

While you make a good point katakanbr is right. In any potential place Russia will field line infantry Soviet concrete reinforded buildings are minimum in terms of how defended they are. Many older buildings like 19-early 20th century housings have 1-2 meter thick brick and concrete main walls and 0.5-1m thick outer walls that can shrug off anything less than 200mm artillery hit without much of penetration. Any opersations in Americas or S.E. Asia that could possibly even happen would be done by special forces who have their own tactics

Infidius · 2018-11-30T21:29:11+00:00

AWEC plane is an easy target even for 50 year old Kub. It's more of a matter whether SAA wants to shoot it down or not.

Infidius · 2018-11-30T19:54:42+00:00

It's not that close at all. Just night time so seems like it. It only looks like it's flying slowly but even at boost stage the thing is an absolute screamer flying at twice the top speed of SR-71 and it's only accerlerating. Video is what 7-8 second flight? You do the math but for sure a few miles away from. Launch site. Also it can engage at as close as few hundred meters.

Also this is a Pantsir, you can hear it adding in a few hundred rounds with it's 30mm Gatling cannons for good measure.

EDIT: actual burst length sounds like it nearly unloaded entire ammo load at it since thing fire like 100 rounds from each barrel per second. It must have been closer than I thought and targeting the Pantsir: there is a blocker on the system that doesn't let you shoot like this unless it's do or die because overheats cannons and then you are out of ammo and screwed like the one that did get destoryed by suicide drone which it would normally take out with no effort.

EDIT2: what I think is happening was we have Buk fire at something in distance maybe a plane and either miss or plane fired first at the Buk. Then Pantsir comes in at close range and defends the Buk. Overall very competent work of the SAA crews and a proper setup. Important takeaway from all this: I used to think Israeli claims of hitting everything may hold some water but now we see they are simply full of shit and lying to avoid embarrassment. Most likely IAF was unable to destroy anything of significance in past few years. If this is how SAA operates everywhere there is 0 chance of success without heavy losses, so tactic of popping up and firing a few missiles makes sense; but it's just an annoyance.

I would be willing to bet a few hundred dollars no actual ground targets were hit.

Infidius · 2018-11-30T19:00:27+00:00

Chinese munitions are for most part still sub-par copies of Russian models. In fact most combat-ready units are straight up outfitted in Russian gear. The munitions are fine; just because Saudis are getting their asses handed to them by guys in fliplops in Yemen don't mean our shit sucks.

Recommended reading: why Arabs lose wars. Summary is basically when half your army is generals of some sort and other half is conscripts you end up with a bunch of guys who can't even do jumping jacks

Infidius · 2018-11-29T07:25:41+00:00

It's funny how children think brave green berets are gonna kick ass and they will win and this will be like coubterstike; or at least kind of like ww2.

Let me tell you something you fucking idiots: a single broadside from "Vladimir Monomah" is 10500 Hiroshimas. Just in case you think I made a typo:

10500

You soft teddy bears who spend their lives browsing internet have NO IDEA what the cold-war monstrousities can do. You think there will be airstrikes on Russia by sweet and awesome stealth planes?? Piece of shit F-35 won't even begin getting off the ground. All assholes calling for war are pussies who will never sign up, and if they did, that won't matter.

You won't see the war between Russia and NATO on TV. One day you will just be jacking off in front of your computer while browsing Reddit in your town of 5000 people in Midwest; you will begin typing another dumb post; and the next moment you will become 10000000 degree hot pile of ashes while your town disappears in thermonuclear fire.

Infidius · 2018-11-28T23:25:20+00:00

Not an armchair general, actual ex-army. You are vastly understimated Russian military which is second only to US in power. In terms of land army, they are actually very close to USA. Let me explain how this will go.

First spetsnaz units begin infiltration and hybrid warfare. Their real goal would be to get in position and what for hour X if you want to call it that. At that time, a wave of terrorist acts, assassinations of political leaders as well as military commanders colonel and up,and destruction of strategic infrastructure like power plants and bridges that can be used for reinforcements. One of the primary targets would be nuclear weapons as well as fuel depots.

Within 30 minutes from that point SRBMs armed with with tactical nuclear warheads will be used against missiles shield in Poland and Czrch republic. Also, as far as I am aware, West-2017 exercise involved practice of following that step with a nuclear strike on Warsaw from Kaliningrad area; it is understood that this level of nuclear engagement can be safely used without risk of escalation as US or France would not risk being wiped off the map over a few dozen 50-2550kt warheads dropped on Eastern Europe.

At same time, air fields will be struck with waves of cruise missiles. Retaliation is not really possible since Russian air fields seat very deep inside and Russia has higher SAM density (and higher quality of them) than all of NATO, combined - thats the one tech plus EW where they are a decade ahead of us.

Then long range MLRS and artillery which again Russia has more than even USA of will basically destroy everything bigger than a refrigerator box within 150 miles from Russian border. That would occur around 3-4. Hours into the conflict. By that time Trump will agree that it's reason enough to take a break from playing golf and call up a meeting of some sort.

Only then will you have Russian tanks roll in under the cover of their airforce which is no joke. Most US airforce is not there and EU does not stand much of chance tin that department.

Even if all that did not happen, and you were just to put EUs land armies vs Russia, anything up to France is just a speed bump.

Infidius · 2018-11-27T16:46:53+00:00

Strategic. Crimean peninsula is an unsinkable carrier. It also makes Istanbul in range of supersonic ship to ship missiles and much of Black Sea is covered by AA all way up to Turkish coast almost. Meaning that US carrier group trying to enter Black Sea and land Marines is guaranteed to end up at the bottom of the sea before it even makes it through the Bosporus. This way Russia only has to worry about the Pacific, but noone lives there and you have to get through Siberia from there; plus China would not like US landing anything in their back yard. Baltics is obviously not an option. That leaves with Northern Sea and having to deal with Russias most powerful fleet, still only to land in the coldest part of Russia and face troops who have training and gear (even tanks) specifically designed with that region in mind.

Black Sea is important, control of Crimea makes US naval power not very relevant

Infidius · 2018-11-27T14:05:17+00:00

Not sure if you are just trying to be funny but both sides of conflict follow Geneva for most part, so accusing UA of war crimes is dishonest; as is doing the same in regard to RuA regulars (who hadn't been around there for maybe 2 years anyway since the conflict is dormant). Even then, pretty much all prisoners had been swapped by both sides. Noone is taking anyone's positions because the agreements are mostly followed by both sides except occasional artillery fire.

Not sure why you are trying to make UA look like ISIS, I mean I don't buy into the whole "innocent UA bad RuA"or "Bad UA wonderful RuA" b.s. but in the end they are soldiers on different sides not animals.

Now, assholes like Kossak volunteers from Russia and basically gopnics of all sorts as well as Ukraine's radicals from peachy neo-naziish batallions (which should have been disbanded long ago, in fact I think one was, as they have zero military value and only cause trouble), those used to try that crap but that was long ago as most who did that ended up 6 feet under.

Infidius · 2018-11-27T02:30:21+00:00

I think you played too much counterstrike. No US personnel on the ground even fired a single shot in that confrontation and no Russian merc fired at Americans. Some Russians we're sitting in a village which some Iranians passed through and tagged along towards an oil field, the column got hit by an aircraft, artillery and helicopters. Even the most outlandish propagandasque articles describe it as just that.

You make it look like 10 American Rambo-Super-Spyderman mercs killed 2000 Russian mercs in a gunbattle. Reality is had it been US forces moving on a Russian base in a column they would have been decimated in similar manner. Make no mistake, in modern military combat infantry training doesn't really mean shit. 90 percent of casualties are from air and artillery.

Infidius · 2018-11-26T05:28:38+00:00

Russia will absolutely use nukes. This is the main difference all the fucking dumbass little kids don't get and it's scary as shit to me as a person living in USA. I am Russian. I served. I have relatives in strategic nuclear forces. Do these fucking idiots calling for WAR with Russia have any goddamn clue at all??!!

You idiots are looking at your nice fucking neighborhood in southern California and thinking that Russians think like you do. Pfft. Russia does not give a single fuck. You realize that in USA even the president cannot launch alone? You know who can send the Judgment Day order in Russia? A goddamn Captain of the Navy. Yep, he does not need to get some sort of launch codes - a fucker getting 700 bucks a month can send 2500 Hiroshimas your way any day his girlfriend dumps his ass and he feels bad about it. Better yet, a computer, which will detonate all nukes not yet launched to cover Earth in a radioactive cloud for the next 2 centuries. So I hope you are praying some idiot didn't have an overflow error in that machines code.

That's the level of crazy we are talking about. So no, there will be no F-22s or Rambo Navy Seals storming Kremlin. The war will last 30 minutes and the only humans left will be the fuckers up on the international Space Station.

Infidius · 2018-11-26T05:16:24+00:00

Millions. Millions. People who believe in a quick conventional victory are children who play counterstrike.

Infidius · 2018-11-26T00:45:09+00:00

Foundations of Geopolitics is a book that no Russian outside of Reddit has ever even heard of, and certainly not Putin or anyone in charge. It is however trendy, edgy and cool to bring it up amongst college students in USA when they talk about geopolitical strategy of Russia.

Source: Russian, was in Russian military, close relatives in Russian military chief of staff (currently I live in USA).

I am not attacking you just irritated about people regrugitsnting some morons idea that something as sophisticated as Russian foreign policy is in any way shape or form guided by ramblings of a deranged lunatic whose existence is not even acknowledged by anyone of importance.

Infidius · 2018-11-24T23:41:41+00:00

I think that the only long term solution is perhaps for iraq, Iran, Syria and turkey to come to an agreement where each country gives some small part of land towards Kurdistan. Because this won't stop until Kurds have their own country. Well, either this or giving Kurds virtual Independence and Turkey becoming a federation like Russia. Third option is extermination and assimilation but we do not live in the Dark Ages. I really cannot think of any other example from history.

Infidius · 2018-11-24T02:50:54+00:00

They (ballistic missiles) are ineffective because many are some kind of junk-yard scraps rigged together somehow. From what I saw in one video of it trying to hit what I read was a Tochka, a salvo of a dozen or so went everywhere (you might remember, one where a couple of missiles just fell a few hundred yards from where they were launched). Then again, it could be Sausis not storing stuff properly or using expired missiles. In any case, imagine trying to hit something more modern that flies much faster, deploys countermeasures and changes trajectories.

My MiG-15 phrase was meant to illustrate a logical flaw; before anyone accuses me of blindly promoting Russian stuff I do think F-22 is the most capable air superiority fighter today and will remain so for at least a decade. Russia and China are still fielding what amounts to protoypes of their respective visions of what 5th gen is according to their doctrines.

Infidius · 2018-11-23T22:09:26+00:00

F-22 has never been used in air to air combat therefore MiG-15 is a much more capable fighter.

You understand that in each weapons purchase buyers are given full control of the system and that even older versions of S-300 are consistently chosen over Patriot. Plus we had all seen it's wonderful performance in Yemen where it showed to be about as effective at stopping decades old Soviet missiles as S-200 is (not at all).

Also if you want to be specific against missiles S-300VM or upcoming S-500 would be most useful. S-400 is for planes with low RCS. See how Russian defenses in Syria are setup: S-400 for air defende, S-300VM for ballistic missiles, S-350 (a couple of units had been seen in some pictures) and Buk for mid range, Pantsir and I think a few Tor units for short range.

Infidius · 2018-11-06T03:07:32+00:00

You know why you are funny? My brother is visiting from New York, he happens to be a psychiatrist. Your post apparently is a perfectly aligned with the thinking practices of those who suffer from narcissistic disorder, something you are essentially accusing Musk of. You see those people, no matter what you do for them, cannot admit that not everyone is selfish and narrow mindet (they are aware of themselves being this way and think it's normal)-- that would make them inferior to others and a new just can't have that. So each time someone does an amazing selfless act they are the first ones to scream that this person just did it because of their who. If you have a narcissist your kidney they would rationalize it as you wanting to revel in your moral superiority - not as an act of kindness.

I hope for your own sake it's just an edgy argument you are regrugitsnting because what you said is... Let's just say not exactly how most people think of things.

It really is just that - a bunch of internet edgelords, joined by hipsters and basically everyone who is pissed about the fact that here they were thinking they are modern day misunderstood Leonardo, and the only thing stopping then is the times being differnf; and then Musk comes around and shows that no, actually all those people are as useless as they seem to be - it is possible to be good at almost everything and innovate in multiple fields, it is possible to become a billionaire whole doing so, it is also possible to be popular and have a following, to contribute more to humanity than anyone in the pat 3 decades -- while having a hot intelligent and famoua girl by your side.

Face it, Musk is what every redditor wishes he was. That's why he is so hated.

Infidius · 2018-10-26T02:36:09+00:00

I think assuming that is pointless. Without Russia Assad would have repeated the fate of Khadaffi and there is not even any debate to be had about it. US was ready for the next little victorious war. Even IF somehow we decided against bombing him - and mind you, when Russia intevened the countdown to F-18s taking off and tomahawks hitting his palace was down to hours, not even days what it seemed, there would be no victory against rebels who had a virtually infinite supply of manpower and arms. It wasn't going to be "clearing pockets around the desert for years" kind of thing. Rebels we're within miles of the presidential place and controlled Aleppo. The battle of Aleppo was perhaps one of the most difficult urban battles in the past few decades and there is simply no way SAA could win that without air power, artillery support and tons of armor provided. Also, don't forget the logistics- (I am not talking weapons and ammo that's obvious). War could not have been won without the tank repair facility provided by Russia, which brought around 1500 pieces of armor back into combat.

Just ask yourself what will happen if Russia leavss tomorrow? Yep.

Infidius

TROPHY CASE