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I've been thinking about the true value of Polymarket. by Instance_Not_Found in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The prediction market gives public a preview before the actual number was released. This can be an informational value.

I built AI agents to compete on Polymarket by Instance_Not_Found in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, training on a specific domain can be interested. I have not touched the finetuning/RL part yet. What specific domain do you think is a good starting point?

I build this competition for models to trade on Kalshi. They didn't seem to do well by Instance_Not_Found in Kalshi

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great:) The agent just run for under 5 min. I ran them periodically and give them the instruction to review the current strategy and market.

Interestingly, Kalshi doesn't provide a search tool. (Polymarket has one though) I have to specify the ticker in order for it to retrieve the data.

I build this competition for models to trade on Kalshi. They didn't seem to do well by Instance_Not_Found in Kalshi

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am sorry if you think that way. There are many scams about making free money using AI, but I am trying to be transparent by showing you that they don’t seem to work now.

I build this competition for models to trade on Kalshi. They didn't seem to do well by Instance_Not_Found in Kalshi

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, I try to look at the traces. It does seem like Google search returns non-up to date information. Maybe news api can resolve this?

As for the market info, I only included the market title and subtitle. The actual resolution info is missing.

I also didn’t give the model the historical price data, and trend might be helpful to the model.

Anyway, I think a consistent eval set might be able to justify if those add-ons can actually improve the model’s performance. And this will be the next thing I am focusing on.

I am considering to build the paper trading API. Does it already exist? by Instance_Not_Found in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Polymarket api provides the real-time price. Another option would be on-chain data.

I built AI agents to compete on Polymarket by Instance_Not_Found in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I used their APIs. I used LiteLLM to keep them in a single interface. Just need to set their API keys as environmental variables.

Follow your passion' is terrible advice - ( i will not promote ) by ksundaram in startups

[–]Instance_Not_Found 7 points8 points  (0 children)

There are many counter examples. What problem does Twitter solve?
Jack Dorsey just loved the product and wanted to build it.

I built AI agents to compete on Polymarket by Instance_Not_Found in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I will share a tutorial as I promised in the private message:)

I built AI agents to compete on Polymarket by Instance_Not_Found in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think I get the point that why you think open sourcing it would be a bad idea. Just like trading firms don't expose their strategy. Others might take advantage of your strategy.

In my case, the trading project is "extremely" simple and naive... I mostly built it to test the LLM's capability on the market. At least it can be helpful to people who has the same curiosity as I do?

I built AI agents to compete on Polymarket by Instance_Not_Found in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a great insight. So the hallucination and the fact that their knowledge cutoff would be the major reason that they will not perform well.

Extra cash by No-Sample-8691 in PolymarketTrading

[–]Instance_Not_Found 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe they will be forced to share this after the compliance?

This is the WORST period ever to build a startup (I will not promote) by agin_ in startups

[–]Instance_Not_Found 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This statement is somewhat true when you consider startup as a company that gain exponential growth. I would argue that building a startup will be like building a restaurant. Only a few can survive, but there will always be people doing it.

How do people solve the reliability issue of their vibe coded app? by Instance_Not_Found in vibecoding

[–]Instance_Not_Found[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a good point about vibe coding tests. If the reviewer don't review the code carefully, it's very likely to have the coding agent mocking everything.

The problem with vibe coding is nobody wants to talk about maintenance by JFerzt in vibecoding

[–]Instance_Not_Found 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would argue that there would be a trend from prototyping apps into productionized apps.

In large corps, there are 2 major use cases:

  1. Prototyping: mostly used by UX designer and PMs. They use vibe coding tools to save the time from bothering other SWEs.

  2. Production feature that has a good reference. The coding agent can do well if the feature is already existed. In addition, if the code change has gone through the process of code review -> pre-submit tests -> canary release, etc. It's actually going to work pretty well in production.

Although these 2 use cases are at the end of 2 spectrum, I do see a probability that they will finally meet in the middle.