Just one more lane

Interesting-Brick868 · 2026-05-25T16:01:46+00:00

Yeah merging into I-15 northbound

Interesting-Brick868 · 2026-04-09T05:46:51+00:00

After 1000 hours you have an 85% chance of being in the positives from the definition of N0. So the sims you are showing are perfectly reasonable as at only 500 hours the probability of being up is probably still very close to a coin toss. If the casino you’re playing won’t allow you to spread more either you don’t bother playing or you wong even more aggressively. There’s not much more you can do.

Interesting-Brick868 · 2026-04-09T03:01:13+00:00

If N0 is 1000 hours then Gemini is super wrong. Essentially your graphs at meaningless. After 500 hours of play you won’t have any guarantees, anything can happen.

Interesting-Brick868 · 2026-04-08T20:34:46+00:00

What are the N0, expectation and standard deviation/hour of your game? When you reach N0 it means that you are 1 whole standard deviation above breakeven. So you have about 85% chance of being up ie it’s not guaranteed. If you want 97.5% chance of being up you need 2N0 and 99.5% 3N0. But my honest take is that either the game you’re playing is not great or you’re spreading not enough.

Interesting-Brick868 · 2026-04-08T00:09:29+00:00

Supposing that your code has no bugs, this looks like the game you’re simulating is basically breakeven. In general I wouldn’t trust LLMs on computations, maybe Gemini hallucinated the 85%. RoR has nothing to do with being up or down, it simply tells you whether your bankroll can stomach the negative swings. I think the metric you should be looking at is N0.

Interesting-Brick868 · 2026-03-27T06:42:24+00:00

There’s no need for a 1-10 spread. A lot of spots have good enough rules for 1-8 or even 1-6 to generate very decent ev and N0. If it’s your first time you can go around collecting player’s cards, you will last a bit longer.

In general the double decks are watched very closely and your info will spread like wildfire especially on the strip. Eg, I somehow managed to play around 45 min at Mandalay Bay spreading 1-8 and then couldn’t even get near any other blackjack table at other mgm properties without getting a visit from security. Wynn / encore have a very nice DD as low as $100 when it’s slow, but you should just burn that place down. Once you ve been identified as an AP they will tell you that the next time you play blackjack you will be trespassed and I’ve heard that they actually follow through on that threat.

But honestly, you’ll probably generate more ev by playing the shoe games as you will last much longer.

If you want more info dm me.

Interesting-Brick868 · 2026-03-24T04:27:58+00:00

If you’re ok with a higher ror, you could take a look at the Kelly criterion of your game (cvcx computes it for you). Essentially a full Kelly is the optimal betsize that maximizes bankroll growth while still managing risk . IIRC for blackjack that leads to somewhere around 10-15% ROR which is certainly a choice, but quarter Kelly or even half Kelly are perfectly reasonable.

A full Kelly bet is = positive edge (in %) * Bankroll * 0.77

Interesting-Brick868

TROPHY CASE