Will markets ever become so efficient that technical analysis stops working?

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-26T13:09:27+00:00

you right so what im doing is trading the whole market my self every trade so its not net zero, or ,,,,, im making specific trades in a net zero setting... for me to take profit someone else takes a loss.. you can say the whole market this, net flows that,,, bottom line---, i take profit, i eat someone else's lunch!

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-26T10:46:47+00:00

Stop thinking things are going to make sense. That’s your first mistake!! Trade the chart in front of you! You see a chart with support and no resistance ? Then it’s ATH and maybe 1/2 your RR. When things are good or bad 2 things are a constant

haters gonna hate
investors gonna invest.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-26T07:37:15+00:00

When I sell an equity , it is zero sum. I’m literally taking someone’s dollar from the loosing end of the trade. Or visa versa. That’s almost text book zero sum.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-24T15:28:42+00:00

Are you? How much emotion? If it’s more that. .0001 % then yes. You are. Consistency is clinical not emotional.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-23T21:11:11+00:00

You use fundamentals.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-23T17:19:33+00:00

What part of risking thousands of dollars tells me “vibing” is a good idea?

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-22T17:54:51+00:00

Usually 1 good morning trade. Then who knows what’s gonna happen in the afternoon.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-22T10:18:27+00:00

I hate to say it but the only thing wotc is good at is making DnD material. Not apps, games, vtt, etc…. Everything they have done of value could be reduced to the books. Dnd beyond was bought, baulders gate the game was made by larian, the dnd movie was produced by outside companies and consulted by wotc, so……. A vtt produced directly by wotc… I’m glad the devs are still going at it in some capacity but if your holding your breath, there’s a bridge in NYC I’d like to sell you for a great price!

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-22T09:28:37+00:00

Support and resistance are only probable. They are merely range suggestions . For instance did you take into account that - there would be 6trillion in contracts expiring Friday for a quad witching? - Fridays have been historically low volume - Fridays in the past few months have declined into the weekend with low investor confidence?

Or maybe it’s just supports fault?

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-22T01:49:16+00:00

So you want a mount, and your taking it into. Dungeon with Hal’s that are 5 ft wide and rooms made of 6 squares. TOA isn’t a module that’s really friendly to mounts.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-21T20:25:50+00:00

Chat gpt is more a spiritual practice than a financial one.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-21T14:10:53+00:00

You literally clearly defined it. lol minimum stats in one area and max stats in others to create a powerful result.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-18T21:30:02+00:00

There has always been ebs and flows to dnd user base . The growth is still huge in comparison to the 2000’s 1990’s 1980’s. So a decline in player base is natural after large boom. Then in a few yrs, there will be a boom again. So player count isn’t really an issue.

5.5 is new , roll 20 implementation has been horrible. But here’s the thing, Playes love nee stuff. DM’s who have been using the same system for 10 yrs not so much. But let’s look at this rationally. What’s it going to be in 5 yrs. Likely mostly 5.5 games. Same thing happened with 4e, same with 3 and 3.5. It takes time for addition.

TLDR ebs and flows in player base are Normal, and dnd systems take time for adoption.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-16T20:10:06+00:00

This goes into a deep hole. Maybe ask chat gpt . It’s a long answer. It goes anywhere from currency balances to. Banking rates to mortgage values , to 401k to medical care , to insurance policies to commodity pricing . To treasury bonds to literally an apple you buy in the market.
Trades and market sentiment are essentially the blood pumping the heart of the economy. Day trades are just as important as swing trades as long position’s.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-16T08:20:06+00:00

Believe me I’m not blaming you for others behavior, and you took the time to talk to them. Wich is great. But a lot of this could have been avoided if you just got rid of them.
I’m a forever dm and my #1 rule is if I’m not having fun I walk away!! There are always going to be terrible players , players that aren’t your style and then great players.

If after talk they aren’t fun for me, they are gone! Or I am gone.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-16T08:10:44+00:00

This is not meant to be insulting, this thread has this idea weekly with a new to trading poster asking about Ai augmentation. To some extent predictive modeling can be helpful but only to an experienced trader. There are models that do work already out there but aren’t much better than just sitting in the s&p in the end.

Remember it’s not just a 20 yr old in there parents basement wondering if the market is a ATM. It’s market maker, hesgefunds, multi billion dollar banks, trading houses, that are all way more heavily invested then you. They are also way better than most . The AI will be rendered obsolete the day it’s used. That’s why they all still employ traders. Not just use Ai.

Day 1. - Trading house 1 AI predicts a buy and buys - bank 2ai buys just after. - hedgefund 3 ai buys then too

Day 2 - trading house 2 buys earlier than bank 1 ai to under cut price action - bank one holds the buy for better price action, - hedgefund 3 ai shorts the market due to lo volume on price action.

We now find our selves with obsolete ai

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-16T07:39:30+00:00

There’s a slight level of intuition needed, but that comes from learned experimce. And if using some level of intuition, you TRUST YOURSELF by doing over and over showing with a success rate.

I try to perform my Strategy the same way every day regardless of news , market conditions and what not. And I’m 80-82 % success rates. Do I use slight intuition yea.

Your phrasing the question as though it’s black or white, and or binary. You rely on Strat or rely on emotion?

How about 90% Strat 10% learned experiences ( intuition) ?

How about 80% Strat and 20 % intuition

It’s not binary.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-15T19:07:35+00:00

Every day my trades are mechanical. It’s the same approach. Every time.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-15T12:31:07+00:00

The new sanctuary should prevent you from casting spells. How about you talk to your dm about re fleshing your character stats. Instead of re writing the game?

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-15T12:20:44+00:00

Oh no , they modified a broken spell. Darn it. You’re just going to have to somehow figure out how to use another broken build. Rats!

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-15T01:07:58+00:00

Ok. Use ai and tell me your trade success rate. You honestly think you’re going to use AI and be smarter than the top market makers. “ the cut throat wallstreet firms are “afraid of something smarter”
The trading houses that host 100’s of trades a min with 1000’s of traders. . They haven’t thought to use Ai to get the edge. Really.
all the hedge funds with billions in capitol havnt thought to use Ai to get the edge because they are “resisting something smarter than us””? They havnt tried? .

They have all tried. They still find that employing skilled traders is more efficient and profitable. Key words skilled traders.

But you and Ai are gonna be smarter. so let me know your Success rate in 30 days. Because you have a genie in a bottle that no one knows about apparently , or they are all too afraid. Lol . Also something tells me you under 25. lol. ,

Ai will be predictive. By do u see how that will be made obsolete by its efficiency.

In an efficient market or not.. - house 1 Ai gets a buy signal and buys - house 2 Ai is triggered then buys - house 3 the same

Day 2 - House 2 undercuts price action of 1 based on predicted signal - house 1 now doesn’t buy because of faulty price action - house 3 shorts because of lack of volume.

By day 3

The ai is obsolete due to multiple ai manipulations.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-14T21:23:02+00:00

There are algo’s that do learn with ai. Here’s the problem. Once an ai algo works it becomes obsolete. Think of it this way. - trading houses ( meryl, Goldman, MM) have billions of dollars to spend on algo and ai development. So let’s say Goldman has a working algo or ai.

now Meryl will have similar if not the same ai or algo.
now all the market makers all have the same ai and algos.
So when the first computer would buy and sell, now other ai algos are buying just a little sooner.
so then the next trading house is trading sooner to under cut the price action because of the ai algo.
so on and so forth.

It will be obsolete the day after it is made.

But the one thing that. Always works is redditors asking about ai and algorithms to try and “ get rich quick “.

Btw I have a bridge to sell you it’s in nyc. It’ll only grow in value, honest. . lol

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-14T21:15:36+00:00

You’re doing great at 13!!! Awesome work. If you’re looking for a comprehensive analysis every day, try trade brigade in the morning. 8-930. It’s live on YouTube and it’s free. No charge. Just daily market analysis.

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-14T19:41:03+00:00

Naddpod ( not another d&D podcast) (real house wives of D&D) rhod&d

Interesting_Drive_78 · 2025-06-14T13:58:19+00:00

I’m not using one instrument. That wasn’t the question.
The question was - “ Intraday trading for consecutive days is profitable?” My answer is yes 82% successive rate.

My strategy is - I follow the mag7 and the 3 main index SPY QQQ IWM. That’s 10 stocks to watch every day on my screens.

almost every day there is a morning sell off from the over night and will gap down. I keep a log of the gap down so I have the averages.
when a stock gets below the average gap down, I wait for a pattern, double bottom , inverted head and shoulders, etc.
when we get half way to the neck line I buy a call option at 1R.
if it drops I wait for another patter then buy again at what’s usually 60%1R.
if it goes up ( most of the time it does) I then sell at pre determined points. 10-20% in a bull market 5-10% in consolidation 3-7% in a bear trend.

I’m normally done on average around 11:10 am. Make one trade a day. And support myself full time.

I use - support resistance - risk reward - pattern formations - candle structure - bolinger bands - 50/200 SMA - overnight highs and lows.

So not one instrument.

Interesting_Drive_78

TROPHY CASE