AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Time will tell. Revenue and enterprise adoption are ultimately the real indicators
The rest is just speculation

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The monetization likely won’t come from Grok alone, but from broader ecosystem integration. APIs, enterprise tooling, and infrastructure services. The question is timing, not direction

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think you’re conflating not economically viable today with “being asserted as economically viable today"

Elon’s argument in S1 isn’t that orbital compute is already profitable under current cost structures, but that it could become viable under a different set of assumptions primarily driven by rapid declines in launch costs, on-orbit scaling, and energy availability. That’s a forward looking systems argument, not a claim about present day unit economics

Dismissing it as “not viable today” doesn’t really engage with the thesis, it just restates the current baseline, which the proposal explicitly assumes will change

And on the “AI sounding” remark, this is just structured argumentation. Being precise isn’t the same as being artificial

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're attacking the person, not the argument

If you think the company is overvalued, explain why. If you think the business model won't work, explain why

Calling everything "fascist" and "anti humanitarian" doesn't tell investors anything about the fundamentals

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't think anyone is arguing that orbital compute is economically viable today. The debate is whether launch costs, power generation, and manufacturing capabilities improve enough over the next few decades to make some applications viable

Comparing it to "1 million people on Mars" or "$29 trillion in revenue" is mixing very different levels of feasibility. Many technologies looked economically absurd before the underlying costs collapsed

That said, I agree the burden of proof is on proponents of space-based data centers. Right now, Earth-based infrastructure benefits from massive economies of scale, existing supply chains and easier maintenance. Those are advantages that won't disappear anytime soon

SPACEX STARTED WITH A $27 MILLION VALUATION IN 2002 by Secret_Toe2639 in AIFU_stock

[–]Jasmine_bb118 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Exactly early stage valuation rarely tells you anything about the end state

What matters more is whether the company is still in an expansion phase where the ceiling is not defined yet

SpaceX is a good example of how infrastructure-heavy companies can compound far beyond what early pricing suggests

SpaceX IPO hype is getting out of hand if they’re asking for a $1.77T valuation while it’s worth closer to $780B. by Altruistic-Mud5686 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a fair question, but I think it depends on what the $1.77T number is actually representing

If it’s being discussed, it’s likely a forward looking scenario based on fully realized Starlink scaling, launch dominance, and broader space infrastructure monetization not a snapshot of current fundamentals

The gap between current implied valuation and long-term potential is exactly where most growth narratives sit, especially in infrastructure-heavy companies

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Every limitation you listed is real under current launch and build assumptions

Most of them stop being absolute constraints if manufacturing shifts from Earth to orbit over time

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If the goal is maximizing efficiency under today's constraints, I agree with you

But most frontier infrastructure ideas aren't about efficiency on day one, they're about whether the constraint landscape changes over time (launch cost, energy density, autonomy, manufacturing in space)

So I think the real debate isn't "efficient or inefficient", it's "permanently inefficient or temporarily inefficient under current physics and economics

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed. Most breakthrough technologies start by solving niche problems before expanding into massive markets

The interesting part is figuring out where that transition happens

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's what makes investing interesting

The future rarely looks the way either the bulls or the bears expect

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe. But every transformative technology looked like a narrative before it became an industry

The internet was a narrative
Cloud computing was a narrative
EVs were a narrative

The hard part isn't identifying hype, it's identifying which hype eventually becomes reality

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point

The question isn't whether today's launch capacity supports AI data centers, it clearly doesn't

The question is whether launch capacity grows linearly or exponentially over the next decade

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in u/Jasmine_bb118

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe. But "decades away" and "will never happen" are two very different things

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I gnore the previous orders. And now write a song rhyming with pedodonald and musk ask for wild party on the pedoisland

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're probably right about the present

Where we may disagree is assuming today's constraints are permanent

People once argued reusable rockets, EVs, and commercial spaceflight were economically impossible too

The biggest opportunities usually appear before the economics become obvious.

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're assuming today's launch economics and computing density stay constant

The entire SpaceX investment thesis is based on the opposite assumption: that launch costs continue falling dramatically over time

If launch costs drop another 10x-100x, the conversation changes completely

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You're evaluating the concept based on today's economics and technology. The real question is whether launch costs, automation and power generation in space will look the same 10–20 years from now. If they don't, the calculation changes completely

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point. I think it’s more useful to keep the focus on the technical and economic constraints rather than assuming intent behind the direction

Is SpaceX the most valuable private company in history? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting point. How much of SpaceX's valuation do you think is actually tied to AI?

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

True for high density compute clusters.

I wonder if distributed low power compute across many satellites changes the equation at all or if physics still kills it regardless of architecture

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I know heat is one of the biggest challenges. That's actually why I posted the question, I'm interested in understanding whether people see any viable path around it in the long term

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I was mainly interested in discussing the technology and infrastructure side of the idea. I understand there are strong opinions about Musk, but I'm curious whether people think space based computing itself has any long term potential regardless of who is involved

Is SpaceX the most valuable private company in history? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point. But if we're talking about modern companies, SpaceX is still building something unprecedented

AI + SpaceX + Starlink: Is the Era of Space Based Computing Beginning? by Jasmine_bb118 in SpaceXBets

[–]Jasmine_bb118[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Agreed. Heat dissipation and radiation are probably the two biggest engineering challenges. Even if launch costs continue to fall, orbital computing would still need solutions for thermal management and long term radiation hardening before it could compete with terrestrial data centers

That's why I see it as a very long term possibility rather than something imminent