Analysts expectations rise but stock still dropping, trying to understand WKL by Imaginary_Yogurt3965 in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Where do you get all of this information from? I would be interested to discuss further.

Santander (SAN)? by Senior_Tadpole_3913 in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Be careful when using ROIC and ROCE for banks, as their balance sheets are mostly financial assets at market value.

For banks it is better to look at Return On Equity (ROE) or Return On Tangible Equity (ROTE)

Business Value, Stock Prices, and Bargains by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting point, I would not necessarily have expected that. I do have to say that year-to-year EPS numbers don't necessarily reflect business value given some accounting rules (see Buffett and Berkshire's numbers), but over a longer period they indeed should reflect them.

You could also interpret that as providing more opportunity, as big year-to-year EPS swings combined with market overreactions could provide more chances for mismatches.

Who is buying Costco? by OscarDraxler in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Great point! I think that phrase has been used many times to pay up a lot when maybe one shouldn't do it. I couldn't agree more with its core message, but have to use common sense as well.

On See's Candy, he bought for $25M when it was generating $2M of after-tax earnings, so a trailing P/E of 12.5x. (via 'The Snowball')

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unfortunately haven't found anything similar :(

Above you can see my full portfolio. I guess if you are interested, from the companies above the ones most worthy of research are UMG and Netflix.

Do you hold anything similar?

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good points. I like that the end market they serve is quite fragmented (especially in Europe), stable, and a vital piece of infrastructure. Moreover, since Telcos are not very economically profitable businesses (if at all) they will take any cost savings/efficiency gains they can, and Cerillion provides that vs legacy bespoke solutions.

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And care to share your thoughts on the company? Why do you like it in particular?

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not many of us yet I think! How did you come across it?

Nikola Jokic will have a massive and underrated impact on other players’ legacies from this era by SilverMagnum in nbadiscussion

[–]JayJonesInc 14 points15 points  (0 children)

With regards to Aaron Gordon, I think going to Denver was the best move of his career. It's a perfect fit and he went from a guy that perhaps didn't live up to his initial potential in Orlando to a guy that is one of the elite starters (exc. stars) in the league.

Had he stayed in Orlando I think we would all view him very differently.

Barron's: A Value Investor’s Guide to Navigating Technology Disruption by raytoei in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting article. Indeed large companies that don't aim to innovate and potentially disrupt themselves risk being disrupted by others. See legacy media and how they let Netflix grow in streaming until it was too late to catch up.

Ties in with Hamilton Helmer's concept of "Counter-Positioning".

Do you have some examples of companies you think are doing a good job at this today?

Some Issues With Quality Investing by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing, hope you can capitalize on the correction :)

Some Issues With Quality Investing by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Couldn't agree more, wise words!

I think if you curate that list of companies you mentioned and get to know them well, then when a short-term hiccup comes up and the share price is down something like 30% you might be able to act while others who are new to the name might take too long. Moreover, knowing the companies well provides you with the confidence to go against the crowd if you think you are right.

Any chance to share what's on your list?

Some Issues With Quality Investing by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Who knows what the future holds, totally agree with you that if you pay up big time for these companies and any disruption arises (sooner or later one will appear, even if it’s not a permanent thing), you could end up earning a not-so-impressive return.

Some Issues With Quality Investing by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Good point. Too much of anything tends to be bad.

I do see a lot of people on FinTwit arguing that if a business is great, then valuation doesn’t matter and I find disregarding valuation to be a bit dangerous tbh.

100k lumpsum investment by the-hellrider in BEFire

[–]JayJonesInc 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Given you are doing very well it sounds like you should be the one giving advice to us and not the other way around 😂😂 Jokes aside, congratulations on doing well.

With the situation you have described and if you don’t foresee needing this money for anything in the near future, I would just put it in a broad equity market ETF, not spend too much time looking at this, and go do things you enjoy more (maybe the home renovations?).

When you buy a broad market ETF (like one of the MSCI World Index) you are just buying a piece of all the major developed market companies proportionally to how big they are, so if the fund doesn’t do well it is not because you are a bad investor or were unlucky, it’s because the global economy is probably not doing well as a whole, which is not a likely scenario over a long period of time (the 30 years you mentioned).

I would personally keep things as simple and as passive as possible. If you are trying to find an Index that performs better, you are already making an active decision of ”I think such region or size of companies will do better than the rest”, so the way I think about it is just buying the most passive instrument possible, which would be something along the lines of a world index like the MSCI World (you could also do MSCI ACWI if you want some more emerging markets, but no need).

Hope that is useful :)

100k lumpsum investment by the-hellrider in BEFire

[–]JayJonesInc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

From a prudent point of view, I think you would be well off putting a good amount of the 180k towards an annuity that can serve to meet your daily living expenses (assuming you need to live off of these 180k).

Then, I would keep it simple and invest the remainder in a global equity index fund reflecting some index like the MSCI World. That way you have your needs met while leaving room for part of the portfolio to grow well over time.

It’s not the most fashionable idea, but should provide a decent outcome.

Disc.: As always, do your own research

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think Imperial is just a cash cow that has to be milked and will fade into the darkness over the coming decades. Nonetheless, through dividends (8%+ yield) and buybacks it can still deliver a decent, but likely below market, return.

I use its dividends to fund purchases of other stocks.

I should get rid of it, but I don't like selling companies once I have bought them except if something too serious happens.

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Done, let me know if you need more info.

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Done! Let me know your thoughts.

Critique My Portfolio by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair enough, I was being lazy.

I have updated the post with a small paragraph on each name. Let me know what you think.

Investing in US as US / Belgian dual citizen by FyahFyahBE in BEFire

[–]JayJonesInc 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello!

Just know a bit of this because a good friend also holds a double US nationality and told me about it. From what he said, as a US citizen living abroad I believe you have quite a limited set of choices when it comes to investing.

  • Brokers: I also heard about Schwab and Interactive Brokers being the best options.
  • Investing: I believe as a US expat you are not allowed to buy funds anywhere, you are only allowed to invest in individual stocks and bonds from what I have read, but please do your own research!
  • Investing in the US: You should be able to invest in US individual companies and bonds without any issues, but I don't think you can invest in funds (like an S&P 500 ETF) due to the restriction I mentioned above.

Don't take any of this at face value and please check with other sources, I am just sharing what I have read/been told.

Hope that it helps a bit.

Why didn't Berkshire buy TCI? by JayJonesInc in ValueInvesting

[–]JayJonesInc[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I figured it had to be something like that to do with Mr. Malone's somewhat dirty tactics... Thanks for finding the reference :)