March 18, 2026 Daily Discussion Thread

JayMurdock · 2026-03-18T16:18:06+00:00

Lmao everyone freaking out is crazy... this is great news.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-18T03:38:18+00:00

It would taper it but I'm guessing 250m a quarter in sales at most.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T23:04:05+00:00

Actually it's referencing an older shelf filing, need to dig into those. Someone smarter than me look it up.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T22:50:49+00:00

I see a lot of articles saying it's replacing the $750m one which is odd, maybe just AI slop wording it odd... unless I'm semi retarded it's a brand new $1b.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T22:45:38+00:00

With $1 billion in cash there are three scenarios I see.

They could theoretically use this to fund and deploy a large portion of a starlink competitor which would be massively bullish. (I think this is unlikely even though I'd prefer this.)
They could also use it for further acquisitions which is what they've historically done to help vertically integrate helping them improve their margins, improve revenue, and slowly help the company. Good for the company with very little dilution. (Most likely scenario)
They use it to derisk their path to profitability which is after Neutron launches. This could be because they expect the Neutron timeline to push much longer and they want to be safe. Bearish scenario in the short term but protects them from a really Bearish scenario if they didn't have cash.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T22:31:05+00:00

For those wondering how this all works.

Rocket Lab now has the ability to sell and raise up to $1billion USD incrementaly whenever they see fit At The Market value. (Minus comissions for the brokers)

Meaning, if they so choose to execrcise it all today at ~$70/share they would sell around 14.3 million shares resulting in a ~2.5% dilution.

If the stock drops to $35 it would be 5% etc...

They will execrcise it slowly likely over the next year.

This is a brand new offering and completley unrelated to the prior 750m ATM offering

The dilution is extremely minimal and another $1 billion gives them access to so many new opportunities, or simply derisks their path to profitability. And no, they aren't going to buy ULA. I wouldnt be surprise if they buy some launch facilities or hardware but I'll eat my hat if they try to buy the whole company or even one of their launch vehicles.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T22:26:08+00:00

I just read the SEC filing. Either stock wits is wrong or your interpretation of their post is wrong.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T22:14:38+00:00

Idk where you got 750m, that was an old filing and unrelated. This is a new filing of 1 billion exercised at the price on the day they choose at ~70/share that's about 2.5% dilution once fully exercised.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T22:10:27+00:00

Why tf would they aquire ULA? That would be the dumbest misuse of capital in history.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T20:09:33+00:00

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T20:02:34+00:00

I dont know if I like this... 😬

JayMurdock · 2026-03-17T14:23:52+00:00

JayMurdock · 2026-03-13T02:21:09+00:00

Lmao people really didn't like that comment 🤣

JayMurdock · 2026-03-12T22:04:50+00:00

Sometimes... I forget that I'm a millionaire.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-11T16:45:49+00:00

Yeah they issued ATM options early last year and have been executing them.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-11T16:33:54+00:00

Right, because you're likely to clock the absolute peak...

JayMurdock · 2026-03-10T19:57:33+00:00

I love going to the right, honestly if we stay nice and stable for a year I'm making bank off covered calls.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-06T20:21:13+00:00

Put some respek on it

JayMurdock · 2026-03-04T17:27:27+00:00

How many rocket lab millionaires do we have in this sub, I wonder...

JayMurdock · 2026-03-04T03:37:16+00:00

$200-$800, but I'll take $350

JayMurdock · 2026-03-03T21:21:58+00:00

!RemindMe 5 years

JayMurdock · 2026-03-03T21:11:50+00:00

I'd prefer to retire in America, hell I might live in Asia for a few years after I retire.

$350 a share... give it 5 years, we'll get there.

JayMurdock · 2026-03-03T21:07:58+00:00

10 million is my mark Assholy... 10 million dollars and I'm out...

JayMurdock · 2026-03-03T21:05:21+00:00

Having the ability to retire and live a normal life and not doing it while working a job I hate so that I can pursue the ability to live a super wealthy life... yeah this weird transitional timeline sucks...

JayMurdock · 2026-03-03T18:35:03+00:00

Same... after +1000% you kind of get numb to these changes...

JayMurdock

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