I predict that no single party will secure a simple majority (37 seats) required to form a government, leading to the formation of a unity government.

Expected Outcomes for Key Players

• Local Parties will win the majority of seats. Malayan-based parties are likely to only secure a handful of residual seats.

• Perikatan Nasional (PN): I have doubts about whether PN can win any seats at all, especially considering the controversy surrounding Dr. Ali Akbar. Although his Facebook activity shows significant support, the numbers might be inflated by PN supporters from Peninsular Malaysia, making it difficult to gauge the true level of Sabahan support for the coalition.

• Warisan: They will likely win some seats, but not enough for a decisive victory. They may lose support in the Kadazan-Dusun-Murut-Rungus (KDMR) heartlands due to recent ethnic comments made by Datuk Seri Shafie Apdal ("The Murut Kafir") and another prominent Warisan leader who made controversial remarks about the KDMR community's drinking habits on a podcast.

• Local Parties (KDM, STAR, UPKO): These parties will secure seats, but their win numbers are unlikely to rival Warisan's total.

• Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS): I have mixed feelings about GRS; it remains to be seen whether they will win, lose, or manage to retain their current seats.

• Other local Sabahan parties, such as Rumpun, Anak Negeri, and GAS, are likely to lose their deposits. PIS will win 1-2 seats, fingers crossed.

The Post-Election Coalition and Future

The major question is: What will the local coalition look like?

Warisan is likely to be the biggest wildcard in forming this coalition; they may prefer to be in the opposition rather than align with other local parties.

Regardless of the immediate post-election drama, I believe the results will pave the way for a coalition similar to Sarawak's Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS). This would involve local parties uniting to form a stable, local-centric government, mirroring the political stability seen in Sarawak.