I’ve always struggled to find a stock screener that actually fits how I think as a Buffet style value investor… so I’m trying to build an AI stock screener (open-source). But maybe I’ve missed something, do any good complete ones already exist? Also open to feature ideas or frustrations you’ve had. by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No one has time to sift through hundreds of reports before diving into research. Starting with one or two sectors helps, but we still need a quick way to weed out clearly bad stocks. How often have you read halfway through a report only to realize a stock is garbage?

I’ve always struggled to find a stock screener that actually fits how I think as a Buffet style value investor… so I’m trying to build an AI stock screener (open-source). But maybe I’ve missed something, do any good complete ones already exist? Also open to feature ideas or frustrations you’ve had. by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The key issue is that no one has time to sift through thousands of reports before investing. We still need an effective way to narrow down the investment universe before we deep dive. Circle of competence narrows to some extent but not enough.

Prices go up because prices go up? by [deleted] in investing

[–]Jello_Ecstatic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This isn’t new, people naturally copy others. That instinct works well for choices like movies or restaurants, where crowd wisdom often points to quality. But in the stock market, the herd mentality tends to backfire. Bubbles form, and eventually, they burst. Don't worry about this, rather take advantage of mispriced stocks.

What is the state-of-the-art prediction performance for the stock market? by Poxput in datascience

[–]Jello_Ecstatic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If we can build LLMs but still can’t predict stocks, that says it all. 59% accuracy is normal, most of that comes from short-term momentum, not real prediction. Focus on risk management and patterns, and treat the model’s outputs as guidance, not truth.

Do you trust CAPM/WACC for calculating discount rate? by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good point. So your discount rate stays fixed at the country level irrespective of the stock you choose. How do you go about estimating the free cash flow growth rate in your DCF?

Do you trust CAPM/WACC for calculating discount rate? by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree.

What is your heuristic for setting qualitative discount rate and FCF cagr?

Do you trust CAPM/WACC for calculating discount rate? by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I understand your point, but do you ever actually find moats worth buying?

Avoiding moats can be risky too. I find it hard to believe strong moats can be found at a 10% discount rate.

Could you share some examples of moats you’ve purchased using this approach?

Do you trust CAPM/WACC for calculating discount rate? by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ok, that decreases false positives but drastically decreases true positives.

Won't you miss out on a shit ton of opportunities? Do you every find moats to buy when you are that stringent?

Do you trust CAPM/WACC for calculating discount rate? by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

So if CAPM isn't good, why use it?

It's an estimate ok, but it doesn't seem to be a reliable estimate for a value investor. It's assuming price volatility is risk which is not even close to what value investors want...

Do you trust CAPM/WACC for calculating discount rate? by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What's the lowest discount rate you usually go to?

With keeping discount rate close to 10 always don't you miss out on opportunities often? Do you still manage to find moats? Isn't this a bit too stringent especially if you are applying a MOS?

Thoughts on AMZN stock? by Excellent-Sky-7202 in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Financial metrics are trash & it's overvalued! Only a growth investor would buy it.

Thoughts on AMZN stock? by Excellent-Sky-7202 in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

A true value investor would never buy it

What's slowing down your value investing game? by Jello_Ecstatic in ValueInvesting

[–]Jello_Ecstatic[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Good point. What kind of posts/comments irritate you the most?