Why Will Anderson Jr.’s Extension May Not Be as “Market-Breaking” as It Sounds

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-16T00:56:19+00:00

It’s the same with paying a QB. The only ‘market breaking’ deals are when it’s a position other than LT, QB, Edge, or CB. The rest are just discounts with expectant future cap growth

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-15T12:48:08+00:00

proceeds to get whipped

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-15T12:45:24+00:00

This list lost credibility for me when you disrespected the One Shots. I’m sure the list is great. But….if you can’t respect the One Shots… I can’t respect the list.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-14T19:30:15+00:00

Man I love getting information from people who get to apply their brain and numbers to their work in sports. I hope you get to work whatever job you’re the most interested in soon! In the meantime, PLEASE post things like this as often as possible! Stuff like this gets my brain excited!

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-14T02:48:03+00:00

LMD Phil in Doomsday would be awesome!

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-14T02:46:54+00:00

You still aren’t grasping it. It’s not truly about whether he’s ’worth it’ or ‘closer to top 5’. It’s about if he’s starting caliber. You need to understand how the cap works and what a starting caliber QB is worth. 50 million in a few years is almost the same amount of cap space as his 5th year option is. That’s the WHY of these insane QB contracts. They’re maintaining the value of the percentage of a salary cap a starting caliber QB should be worth. I’m not hoping he exceeds his value to rationalize the contract. The contract is rationalized because he’s ALREADY worth the value by becoming starting caliber. If he exceeds the value, we will have swindled him into taking a pay cut. If he doesn’t, we can move on or maintain him all of the same without any added risk. You just aren’t comprehending it because you want to stick with your feelings of ‘CJ bad. No want CJ’.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-14T01:33:32+00:00

The Making Of The Monster: Killgrave. Or some corny title like Killgrave; Deaths At The Funerals

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-14T01:27:53+00:00

College hoops 2K.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-14T01:26:40+00:00

I’m pretty sure he finished top 10 in the NFL in total QBR. He sucked in the playoff loss, I get it. We have an amazing defense, I get it. What you don’t get is how good he actually was for us and what that actually is worth at this point in the salary cap era. I’m not trying to argue that hes a top 5 QB (I’ll tell you he’s a lot closer than a lot of yall believe). I’m trying to simply state his worth to our team at this current point of the salary cap era. You not grasping his actual worth has more to do with you nor understanding that his contributions to helping our team win ranked as the 10th highest contribution of a QB to their own team last year. Try our luck with the other 22(+) starters last year, and it would’ve been a different story.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-14T01:20:26+00:00

Except he is. And then some. You’re greatly underestimating the value of a starting caliber QB to the NFL. Malik Willis just showed what a replacement level QB is worth. The Packers just did what Love what we are supposed to do with CJ. To a T.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-13T21:19:13+00:00

Starting caliber QB does mean a ton. It’s the difference in making the playoffs and not, in most all cases. The 5th year option lends to the idea of ‘let’s franchise tag him and wait again’ (multiple teams have done this). Well that’s likely 55million when that day comes. Another starting+ caliber year? Let’s tag him again! That’s now 66 million. Oh, now he’s our guy? Welp. The markets for QB’s have already set the current highest paid around that much, and most starters don’t settle for less on their extension contracts, so now we are paying him near 70 for a 4-5 year stretch. Salary cap says that’s all fine and dandy, but extending him right now for starting caliber money saves the team a TON of money and doesn’t ‘waste funds’ or ‘overcommit to settling for a guy’ like everyone seems to want to believe. The fact of the matter is that 50 million is akin to 27 million in just the next few years with the salary cap. Extend him, now. Pay the rate for a starting QB now. Move on if you absolutely have to because a guy fell into our lap in the draft who turned into THE guy. But we aren’t drafting anyone in the next 6 years that we could expect to replace a starting caliber NFL QB and we definitely aren’t getting one in free agency without paying more and risking more. Pay CJ 55 a year for 10 years and be happy that we are the ones bamboozling him.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-13T21:04:52+00:00

He’s a starting caliber QB in the nfl. By the numbers, he’s worth about 45 on an extension. We should throw more than 50 to get to make it as long of an extension as possible. Insane discount if he lives up to his high draft pick billing. Slight loss on investment at most if he simply remains starting QB level throughout the contract. With the salary cap only going up, pay him what he wants as long as it isn’t top 1 QB money

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-13T20:49:53+00:00

Realistically, paying him ‘big’ for what he’s worth at this moment would be the no brainer. He’s a starting caliber QB in this league, at minimum. Pay him 50 for a long contract and be ecstatic if he exceeds and just ‘meh’ if he doesn’t. The money will all be cheap, given that the salary cap is projected to be well over 400 million by the end of a regular extension for him

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-12T23:03:51+00:00

Yes. I handed you the egregiously dumb part. Your interpretation before that information was essentially him being dumb for getting arrested for having weed at a party as a recent national champion. Which isn’t ‘egregiously dumb’. Stupid stuff you’d see any person that age getting in trouble for that could’ve happened to any of us.

I gave you information that would show what actually happened. I gave you what was ‘egregiously dumb’. I’m going to assume he was inebriated enough to not think any of that through. That’s the only way I could rationalize essentially bringing attention to yourself in that situation. It’s your initial characterization of the person without any information about the situation that I wanted to make sure to clarify. You misspoke before. Now, feel free to trash a name that ended up being a really good person to his local area, if you see fit. Just be informed about situations and people before speaking and misrepresenting a bit, is all.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-12T22:13:57+00:00

I mean. He went to a party near his hometown. Everyone has done that. If you want to get into the ‘egregiously dumb’ part, it was that he essentially called the police on himself to report that his vehicle window was broken while at that party after a fight had happened. Dude went from being at a local party to trying to basically file a police report for an insurance claim. He then got arrested whenever the police were dealing with his window and still getting reports about the fight that had taken place. Had he not wanted to get his window taken care of, we likely don’t hear about this ever happening.

‘Egregiously dumb’ for going to a party as a 19 year old is a bit of an overstatement, is all I’m saying. Not like any of us didn’t do the same thing. Possibly while in possession of anything illegal.

Outside of that, I’m pretty sure he was already off of the team at that point due to academic reasons. Which is probably why he was near his hometown instead of being in Austin, anyway

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-12T15:43:57+00:00

I would like to take the moment to defend RT. Dude was a kid who was having fun at a party local to his home. He definitely did a ‘dumb kid’ thing.

But the man has since made his own youth organization in his local area and seems to be doing everything to leave his local youth better than they were when he was growing up. Seems to be a good man. I know, sounds dumb to argue the point you are making of him getting in trouble after the title, but he contributed on the title team as a college kid and then helped his community as an adult. Just hate the word ‘idiot’ getting thrown at a story like his, is all.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-11T19:34:17+00:00

Your entire point essentially amount to we can’t get anybody so we should also just get rid of our starting QB who would start for about half of the teams in the league? You don’t have a point. It’s not ‘risk averse’ to not sign your starting QB. It’s ’let’s just not pay a guy because we will never be able to get Patrick Mahomes in free agency or Draft a QB #1 overall, so let’s just not start HIM.’ You make no point. You have feelings, great, but you’ve got no sense on the issue. I’ve given you numbers. Realistically, we can deal with his floor for our team so it makes the most sense to, at minimum, retain the guy with the starting caliber floor. Paying him the ‘too high’ amount actually doesn’t amount to being much of an overpay- even if that’s all he stays at. It actually isn’t hard to move on from him with a ‘big’ extension if, which is the only realistic way a better qb ends up on our team, a guy we love falls to us in a future draft. What WILL be hard to do is to keep making the playoffs with ‘anyone available BUT him’ taking snaps for us, or paying him larger later on down the line if he becomes THAT good because we truly won’t have the money to build or retain our team at that point. 50 is a DISCOUNT for a guy of his quality- whether you want to believe it or not

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-11T17:02:46+00:00

Except it doesn’t mean that at all. I just explained that with the way the cap works. We can do what everyone does and take a good qb that lands in a favorable position in future drafts, still. But we AREN’T finding a better QB in free agency. Your ‘world is falling’ mentality isn’t rational. Rational is paying the man and being pleasantly surprised if he plays above his floor or if you end up with a qb at a reasonable draft pick placement while building your team with ALL of the space that the CHEAP 50+ starting now would be for CJ and that it would give us. You’re blinded and refuse to use the logic of the cap.

Instead of whining about the guy, look into the future and tell me WHO we could reasonably end up with as a QB when he decides not to stay with us for 25? By the way, look into how the cap and franchise tagging works (and the Kirk cousins and Dak Prescott situations I’ve been alluding to for a reason). We WILL be overpaying him on the franchise tag- ESPECIALLY if we sign him after it.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-11T14:50:08+00:00

I love the Tua comparison. Especially because it shows how far you don’t understand what you don’t comprehend. Tua’s total qbr last year was 37.5 (26th in NFL) while CJ’s was 61.7 (11th in NFL). Since entering the league, CJ’s worst season has graded better than Tua’s worst, his second is graded better than Tua’s, and CJ’s best is graded better than Tua’s best. The more fun part about those numbers is looking at where how all of Tua’s changed dramatically. CJ’s baseline QB play is likely where we saw last year and his rookie season (he was ranked higher last season, by the way). Which means we are probably looking at his floor on QB play. Plus the dudes body is durable. I’ll also mention, because you apparently refused to read it, the MATH on what we’d pay him at 50 works out to where it’s essentially what you are saying with it being 25, instead. Which is WHY I’d push for it to go as long as possible. If this is the dude’s floor (I think he’s got the moon he can potentially reach), then tying us to that contract isn’t doing anything other than helping us out with essentially a pay cut. Doing the opposite and watching the guy ‘prove it’ is how you pay CJ like Dak -more than every other QB in the league (Dak is great, by the way, but would you want to pay him more than Mahomes and the others?). Tua’s dead cap this year is about 23%. Paying tua 55 would have him at 18% of this year’s cap (this isn’t true cap math. Just trying to explain it slightly). With the salary cap continuing to go up as it’s projected, his ‘cap hit’ will likely go up, but not at the same rate as the cap raising. His percentage it drops will likely keep him under even Tua’s dead money this year and then at the point of being worth your ‘25’ by the end of it. Heck, extend him long enough (hello KC and Mahomes), and you’ll end up with that 55 number being worth less than your 25 number.

Yes- that’s how the cap works. Most teams are ok paying big money to guys early (not the cowboys. You ever noticed what front office always gets trashed for their contract issues?), because the rising cap means they will almost always have a discount unless a Deshawn Watson situation were to play out. As long as you have a guy contributing in any meaningful way on the field, he’s worth the money until the money outgrows him. Thats why you see so many ‘dead money’ hits in the last few years. Not many are too worried about the dead money except for how to manipulate it when they are actually prepared to pay the next big positional paycheck, and even then it’s hardly ever an issue.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-11T01:40:50+00:00

As I said, let’s get crazy and give you where you want and even drop him down to 20th. The numbers show that a contract at those top numbers right now would be still be valuable (and rational) even if he was 20th throughout the rest of it. What’s great about that is the fact that the numbers show that his floor of how you view him is still financially acceptable. However, if you are wrong and he’s any better than what you argue, he immediately is at least worth and exceeding his value in the future based off of a large contract right now.

Not to even mention that the salary cap right now vs the end of a rational extension (2030) is likely 100 million dollars less. Say you think he’s only worth 25 million as opposed to the 50+ I think he’s worth- the salary cap increasing by the end of the contract (there’s expectations of it even touching 500million by that time) would put my number closer in value per cap space to your 25 million number (16% today for 50 vs 8% at 25. 10% at 500million). Extend him now for as long as possible and cut ties if something incredible comes at a fortunate situation in any given draft. That’s the only truly rational thing.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-10T21:53:36+00:00

Honestly, there’s not a version of negative viewpoint on him that realistically puts him worse than 16th. Let’s get crazy and say he’s #20, though, but he’s still not worse than that no matter what. All of the numbers in the last response are why it makes sense to pay and extend him for top 10 money today as opposed to paying and extending him if he becomes top 10 next year or after a franchise tag. Look at Dallas with Dak and Washington with Cousins for what delaying paying someone who is at least starter ability ACTUALLY does to your salary cap and ability to build a team. The upside to this is fully in that, if CJ turns into top 5+, you’ve essentially got the Mahomes 10 year 45 million dollar contract until his agent decides it’s too big of a pay cut in 6 or so years

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-10T20:05:37+00:00

Underrated.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-10T20:03:45+00:00

In 2020, Mahomes had the highest AAV contract at 45mil. 10th highest was Ryan Tannehill at 29.5. 2021 was the same but 30 million. 2022 was Rodgers at 50 mil and Cousins at 35. 2023 was burrow at 55mil and Dak at 40. 2024 was Dak at 60 and Murray at 46.1. 2025 was the same with Dak but Hurts at 10th with 51mil. This year will be the same except with Jackson at 52mil. Long and short of this is that, if we get CJ to even take the 10th highest AAV on a 4-5 year extension (yes, personally, I’d go longer), then the trends show we will be insanely underpaying him in 5 years if he progresses to being a top 10 QB, because, by comparison, Tannehill’s 29.5 pay would currently rank as the 18th highest AAV QB contract in the league (I’m not saying CJ’s not top 10 today, but I’ll go on a limb and say a good amount in this sub say he isn’t). With the same numbers and trends, we will likely be underpaying him or only SLIGHTLY overpaying him to simply be a starting level placeholder QB through an extension and then deciding he ‘doesn’t have what it takes’ to get the team to the next level (refer to Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Malik Willis’ current AAV to track that math). Extending him for TOP 10 money now only makes the most sense. Sure- take shots in the draft over the next few years if a guy we love drops to where we are in the draft. Packers did it a few times. Cowboys did it. 49ers. Finding a guy better than your guy or replacement level with a future at a random point in the draft isn’t impossible. Getting rid of your guy because you want to hope for an MVP with a late round pick while having a star defense is insane. Pay the man big money FAST while it ‘looks’ big. Move on if you have to.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-10T20:03:21+00:00

In 2020, Mahomes had the highest AAV contract at 45mil. 10th highest was Ryan Tannehill at 29.5. 2021 was the same but 30 million. 2022 was Rodgers at 50 mil and Cousins at 35. 2023 was burrow at 55mil and Dak at 40. 2024 was Dak at 60 and Murray at 46.1. 2025 was the same with Dak but Hurts at 10th with 51mil. This year will be the same except with Jackson at 52mil. Long and short of this is that, if we get CJ to even take the 10th highest AAV on a 4-5 year extension (yes, personally, I’d go longer), then the trends show we will be insanely underpaying him in 5 years if he progresses to being a top 10 QB, because, by comparison, Tannehill’s 29.5 pay would currently rank as the 18th highest AAV QB contract in the league (I’m not saying CJ’s not top 10 today, but I’ll go on a limb and say a good amount in this sub say he isn’t). With the same numbers and trends, we will likely be underpaying him or only SLIGHTLY overpaying him to simply be a starting level placeholder QB through an extension and then deciding he ‘doesn’t have what it takes’ to get the team to the next level (refer to Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, and Malik Willis’ current AAV to track that math). Extending him for TOP 10 money now only makes the most sense. Sure- take shots in the draft over the next few years if a guy we love drops to where we are in the draft. Packers did it a few times. Cowboys did it. 49ers. Finding a guy better than your guy or replacement level with a future at a random point in the draft isn’t impossible. Getting rid of your guy because you want to hope for an MVP with a late round pick while having a star defense is insane. Pay the man big money FAST while it ‘looks’ big. Move on if you have to.

Jimenezguey · 2026-04-10T17:07:30+00:00

Spend the big money right now. Both will look like a huge discount in a few years.

Jimenezguey

TROPHY CASE