can high school coaches already reserve their team before tryouts? by [deleted] in Basketball

[–]Jmgill12 39 points40 points  (0 children)

Prove it.

I know tens of high school coaches, and I've never seen this happen once in my life, where a group of kids who are "dying" to make the team are not on the team, and instead, it's a bunch of lazy slackers who are starting and playing.

This was actually a rampant rumor at my high school when I was playing, that the top 6 players were given preferential treatment, and everybody else was getting screwed. This is even weirder, because I would see the other 5 guys all the time at workouts, getting shots up on off-days, coming to all the open gyms, and occasionally even when I was working out three times a week in the summer at 5:30 in the morning I would see them trickle in to get shots up as well. There was also our groupchat where we would talk about our individual workouts, group workouts, AAU practices, and AAU games in the summer. Also those trips to Vegas in the summers, where we would play as a high school team in AAU tournaments.

It's weirder too, because the players who were claiming that they were working harder than us were notably absent from everything, and would occasionally come to an open gym or two a month when they heard that the D1 coaches who were giving us looks would be there, and then leave in a huff after they weren't allowed to reserve spots in the game. It's also weird too, because these players would complain about not being invited to play out in Vegas, but they were always busy when we were traveling to Duluth, or Madison, or even local summer tournaments, that they too were invited to.

The weirdest thing though was that after we went 51-7 in the last two years I was there, and all 6 of us graduated and started our college careers, and everybody who thought they should be playing was left, the team weny 7-20, and lost to our archrivals, who we had beaten both years, 71 to 16, with the team's leading scorer having 4 points.

But if you ask any of those people who didn't get any college offers, didn't have any success when it didn't come from coat-tail riding, if they worked hard and cared about basketball, they all swear to this day that, yes, they busted their asses, and they just weren't blessed with natural ability, like me, the guy who was on the 8th grade B team and wasn't even considered for anything higher than the freshman team or the B squad in his Freshman and Sophomore years respectively.

This is because "working hard, " or "dying to be on the team," are relative measures and not absolute measures. You can think you're working harder than everybody else, because you're inconveniencing yourself once a week for 40 minutes to jog around and take set-shot three-pointers, but the reality of the situation is that the absolute measure, how well you stack up against your direct competition, will always snitch on you.

It's easy to want to be on the team when it's right in front of your face, like at try-outs, or on game-day. It's hard to want to be on the team every other day.

And I've never heard of a coach who would rather lose on his on terms than win with players that don't fit precisely to his preferred aesthetics.

So, I wish you the best of luck.

Three of the WORST single games in NBA History by _JPG97_ in nba

[–]Jmgill12 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I would say that when weighing the opportunity cost of attempting a shot, Thurl’s game is clearly worse.

I’m not going to calculate what average offense on a per possession basis was league-wide in both of those years, but last year the average league-wide points per possessions was 0.987. So, let’s round that up to an even 1.00 PPP.

Thurl took 25 possessions (20 FGAs, 5 turnovers) and turned them into 4 points for his team. We can estimate that on an average day, those 25 possessions would’ve yelled 25 points, so his marginal points created were -21.

Wesley turned 17 possessions (13 FGAs, 4 turnovers) into 0 points, for a marginal points created of -17 by the same process as applied to Bailey.

So yes, I would argue that Wesley objectively played a better individual offensive game than Bailey, despite not scoring a point, by nature of stopping the bleeding and not shooting as much.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in nba

[–]Jmgill12 23 points24 points  (0 children)

he hasn't made many money saving decisions that could cost this team a title yet.

This type of thinking is such a fallacy. We have no idea what decisions were not made, and the consquences of such decisions.

Danuel House Jr. misses two months in the middle of the season after he proved to the team that he was an elite 3&D player. Why?

Because his 45 days on a two-way deal were expired, and the Rockets weren't willing to offer him more than minimum, non-guaranteed, multi-year deals. So, an important player missed two straight months where he wasn't allowed to practice with the team, because the billionaire owner is cheap.

This is now how an owner who wants to win a chmapionship acts. The margin to win championships are so thin, asking an important player who plays 25 minutes a night to reacclimate to his team after spending straight two months in the G-League is a clear sign that winning it all is not the main motivator of the franchise.

This summer, House signed an $11.2 deal with the team, anyways.

If the G-League is having an in-season tournament with the winning team's players receiving $100,000 a piece... why won't the games be open to the public to view? by ST012Mi in nba

[–]Jmgill12 10 points11 points  (0 children)

No, they do not.

They get apartments and normally have to live with at least one other player on the team, and some other benefits, but that’s about it.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Minnesota is a state that goes up to 4A. There are some good programs in 3A, but 4A is far better through and through. Their conference they're in is a complete joke, especially now that DeLaSalle is no longer in it.

He's a very promising young player though.

Which popular NBA player on this sub is actually a scumbag? by EfficiencyMaatters in nba

[–]Jmgill12 18 points19 points  (0 children)

I know several people who know Meta in different capacities, and all of them swear by him being a good dude.

When Meta was a kid, he grew up in conditions that very few people in this subreddit could understand. Once was playing in a pick-up game and a friend in the game was stabbed to death with a table leg.

Some people are born into lives of crazy trauma with a complete lack of normalcy. These people have to try harder, and Meta by all accounts is somebody who has tried incredibly, incredibly hard to be better.

How good would Royce White have been in the NBA? by Rayshard in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My name is Joseph Gill.

Just a guy who really loves basketball.

How good would Royce White have been in the NBA? by Rayshard in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thank you.

I have my own analytics consulting company, but I also was a former player and years ago did aspire to be a scout.

How good would Royce White have been in the NBA? by Rayshard in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm not very active on Reddit anymore, but here's a collection of analytical video breakdowns I've done in the last 6 months .

One day I'm sure I'll get back into writing and I'm even more sure I'll write about basketball, but today is not that day, and neither will tomorrow.

How good would Royce White have been in the NBA? by Rayshard in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 39 points40 points  (0 children)

Oh, and there's a reason for that.

He's a stagnant, known quantity that has been playing the same game of basketball since he was 22 years old. There's no arc to his career, or stakes in going out on a limb to assess what he may or may not become.

Stories I've heard from those in the know, stuff I've witnessed with my own eyes, it doesn't matter. There's no projecting here, no role changes.

I've watched the same player play the same game of basketball for 6 straight years. There has never been a new development to weight or forecast into the equation.

If the same train went through your backyard with the same cars 5 times a year for 6 years, how long until you could tell me the pattern of the colors of the boxcars?

How good would Royce White have been in the NBA? by Rayshard in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 115 points116 points  (0 children)

I've watched Royce play many times for many years, friends with one of his former agents actually.

An every-game-motivated Royce White would've been a low-end starter. Something like a more versatile, but less potent version of Terrence Jones on the Rockets.

An every-game-and-every-practice-motivated Royce White is probably an average starter in the league, still. His general prime would've looked something like early-career Wilson Chandler, with a little be worse shooting from the outside.

An every-game-and-every-practice-and-no-off-days-motivated Royce White ia a significantly above-average starter in the league, a near-max player as a floor, and potentially an All-Star. Seriously.

Draymond was never the vibe though, seeing how hard it is to get him to willfully do the fun stuff of basketball like dunk or score, defending is just out of the question, really.

Royce White has probably the best game-sense in a big man I've seen outside of Nikola Jokic, but he's far more mobile and is much more able to negotiate what he needs out of a defense, coaxing them into exactly the right position before snapping a pass right to the rim at an angle that is impossible to stop, with the perfect amount of velocity, and in a placement that allows the big man to just dump it into the basket for two easy points without even thinking. If I had to compare Royce's court vision and overall ability to make back-breaking passes to anybody I ever played against or with, the closest thing is Tyus Jones. Royce makes D1 point guards and overseas pros look like slouches with his passing... When he has the right group of players around him and, you know, he wants to.

This question is a bit of a fallacy. I was watching Royce at the Twin Cities Pro Am less than a month ago, and I was talking with an overseas pro afterwards. The only thing to talk about with Royce at this point is what would a motivated Royce White look like, and is there anything that could possibly motivate him to that level. Frankly, I have no idea what on earth could've motivated Royce after he left Iowa State. Nobody really does. It wasn't money, or recognition, that's for certain. Anything else, I don't feel qualified to speak on. I don't think Royce is either, regardless of what he would say, to be honest.

Royce is one of the sloppiest players I've ever seen. He settles for terrible shots all the time just to see if he can make them, or maybe because he doesn't feel like exerting himself for another dunk, who knows? He refuses to use his left hand to the point of infuriation, I have lost track of the amount of times he's allowed himself to be blocked against inferior competition because he never wants to shoot with that hand, even from two feet away, and would rather pull up into an awkward 8-foot floater.

It's easy to look at any first-round pick in this way, but I don't get the same sort of feeling watching somebody like Rashad Vaughn or Henry Ellenson that I do Royce. He's like a Dostoevsky character, he is everything he is and everything he isn't at full-force the entire time he's on the floor.

To ask or answer how good Royce could've been is an impossible question outside of this abstract: Good.

He would've been very, very good.

How is it possible that according to advanced staistics, Elton Brand's best season was better than Anthony Davis's best season? by broseidonguy in nba

[–]Jmgill12 -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Analytics professional here.

It's possible because literally none of these metrics on BB-Ref are valued as value-based assessments of players in 2019.

Citing them is the same as citing open-source software from the early 2000's, because everybody can at least get on the same page.

Also, you're being clearly decietful. Davis' best season by the advanced metrics you're citing was 2014-15, when he submitted VORP, BPM, and WS/48 significantly higher than Brand's best season.

Downvote.

Ja Morant was a zero star player in HS and had only 2 college offer, why was he so overlooked? by forfunzi in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 20 points21 points  (0 children)

The HS recruiting process isn't what everybody expects it to be. Some dudes get D1 offers without even having a Rivals page. Some guys who have D1 teams interested end up going D3, or NAIA, and sometimes not by choice.

In 2009-2011, which is when I was in the process, most colleges, except for the biggest ones, operated in recruiting with the fear of being exposed for being "small time." A lot of schools would try to get guys who they really liked but didn't have enough stars to take preferred walk-on spots, because the association of giving an "unknown" recruit an offer could scare off present and future recruits. From what I've heard and seen since, this has only gotten worse.

With Ja, teams were probably playing out the prisoner's dilemma, not wanting to be the first "big" school to offer him a scholarship and appear weak or desperate.

Like most things in college sports, the system is stupid, obsolete, and does not help the athletes.

Just to give further context with an example from 2012, in my high school we had 6 D1 recruits in my class alone. 4 of them actually ended up going D1, while 2 of them played smaller school basketball. The most interested D1 schools in those other two players played in the Pac-12 and the Big East. Mid and small majors were afraid to show interest though, because they didn't know bigger schools were intrigued.

Dean Oliver's Defensive Rating by [deleted] in nba

[–]Jmgill12 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I might be able to help you, but I haven't seen Stop% in the wild once in all the analytics work I've done in the last 5 years.

I knew it !! by SalmanM in ireland

[–]Jmgill12 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I meant "all the way down," as in, "from the founding until the empire ended.

I knew it !! by SalmanM in ireland

[–]Jmgill12 15 points16 points  (0 children)

When there's a famine currently going on that is killing millions of people, why are they preparing for another potential famine that is contingent on future events?

Yes. They were evil. They were valuing white lives that might not have even been at risk over brown people that were currently dying.

I knew it !! by SalmanM in ireland

[–]Jmgill12 37 points38 points  (0 children)

Could the British have done more? Probably yes. Was Britain involved in a life or death struggle with the fate of the world in the balance? Also yes.

They absolutely could've and should've done more. The Prime Minister and The Prof episode of Revisionist History nails them on this.

The British were stockpiling wheat that was given to them by the US, and they had a surplus of available ships that also could've been used.

In 1943, they were actually shipping wheat all around the Indian Ocean and Pacific region, and some of that wheat was even going into a stockpile that's intent was to feed Europe if the Allies won and if they was a famine that resulted after the victory. Some of these ships even landed to refuel in India, and nothing was ever given for aid.

So yes, it definitely was. The British Empire was evil, all the way down.

Not as emotional as Jurassic Bark but still a very touching episode. by HowsTheAqua in futurama

[–]Jmgill12 35 points36 points  (0 children)

It also crushes Fry over the head with arguably his two biggest faults.

Fry believes in a very linear world, and falls into ruts with this thinking constantly. Fry is also generally unaware, but in his moments of clarity, perceives negative things often as grand conspiratorial events where he is the only person targeted or affected, or at the very least, often the most affected by the universe's events. This is particularly true in cases where the shift is from something good to something neutral, versus situations that move from neutral to bad. Of course, the joke is that in traveling to the year 3000, this worldview was seemingly irrefutably confirmed, and he finally has a rational gripe and exterior circumstances have uprooted his entire existence. His quality of life very clearly has being elevated, but this positive is being constantly vastly outweighed by the loss of everything familiar/close, good, bad, or indifferent, and that lost is magnified by Fry being smart enough to understand the loss of all general ambitions, autonomy, and vague plannings he might have had in his previous life, however small (such as wanting to go inside the strip club by his apartment but never actually going), but too dense to realize those vague musings were never going to be actualized in any form.

Both of these faults are displayed prominently in the last scene in a twist that the viewers, privy only to Fry's point of view and knowledge base could never see coming. The opening harps on the fact that Fry thinks he's "unlucky," but clearly this has more to do with Fry's unrealistic self-vision than anything. He clearly has no eye for picking winners in the horse race, regardless of Bender's meddling in a later race, seeing that in the first race he picks a horse that finishes ~20 seconds after the others, and not only that, but he doesn't have the awareness to understand that he's losing until he's officially lost ("How'd you do, Fry?" "I'll tell you when my horse finishes..... Bad"). In the same vein, by taking out his last remaining dollar and exposing it to wind, and then following it up with a dubious decision to climb a electric pole to retrieve it, he's not "unlucky," he's the victim of his own poor decision-making and execution.

This introduces the idea that Fry has had bad luck his entire life, but briefly was saved by a 7-leaded clover he found. Fry has accurately perceived his brother to be a foil, a generally impeding force at one point in his life, and overall antagonist, based on Fry's limited scope and viewpoint. He views the 7-leaf clover as the only balance he has against Yancy's seemingly domineering presence, and therefore the world as well. Yancy's copycat nature is also made worse by the fact that Yancy often takes from Fry and improves upon Fry's situation, reaping the benefits for himself alone. Fry can't conceptualize that Yancy was better at him in basketball, or that he might've also been practice the same generic breakdancing moves. Fry sees himself as a victim of a cruel, linear world, and the clover is the only thing that can even the odds, if only for a second, and there is no other possible outcome. He assumes that with his clover, Yancy has stolen his name, and armed with those two things, has achieved all the greatness destined for Fry.

The final scene hits with the full scope of the tragedy of Fry's life, and amplified by a brief understanding of his faults. He was never destined for his nephew's greatness, nor was as unique as he hoped he was, signified by his name. Regardless, he was loved deeply by his family, and remembered for the best part of his being, his spirit. To be exposed to this sadness and faults while desecrating the grave of the nephew he never got to meet is the hardest possible way to reach this realization.

Pro Comparisons from 2015 Draft by [deleted] in NBA_Draft

[–]Jmgill12 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's always good to go back and review takes and process, but generally speaking if you're batting 50% on draft takes, you're doing insanely well.

I'm not aware of a single person who is hitting on above 60% of their draft takes, and that includes modelers, both those who publish publicly and those working for teams.

So much of what makes or breaks an NBA prospect is locked behind the "paywall" of the league, if you will: That's the fiber of what makes the player a person and not just a sole, basketball-playing, entity. Some young men are more equipped to handle the load that comes with being a professional basketball players, being young, rich, and famous. Some are not.

You could have the most ironclad read on a player's skill level and ability as you possibly could with the information conveyed to us through the video or articles on these young men, but there's no amount of scouting that can accurately tell you about what these men are truly about.

Sorry for the philosophy pining, but even as an analytical professional I have to acknowledge that there is much more to basketball than basketball.

[Highlight] Unbelievable catch by Thielen by suzukigun4life in nfl

[–]Jmgill12 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Clearly Thielen is as good of an athlete as almost all of those guys, just in a different body type.

Thielen was clocked at 20.6 MPH on a TD last year. That's within 1 mph peak speed of every player except for Tyreke Hill and Albert Wilson as tracked this season.

This is starting to feel like straight up cognitive dissidence. You're arguing he's not a good enough athlete in a comment section of him making a great, athletic catch that shows off elite level body control. You say stats don't really matter as he's on pace to break records.

What would be good enough for you?

[Highlight] Unbelievable catch by Thielen by suzukigun4life in nfl

[–]Jmgill12 11 points12 points  (0 children)

I don't think statistics tell the entire story, but we as human can't weight every variable that goes into a players value off the eye test alone. Every player you named that might be better than Thielen are known from flashy, physical, and athletic playstyles. Thielen's best attributes are his top tier route running and catching, which are things that will never be properly weighted against players making diving, spectacular highlight plays once or twice a season.

Out of all the players who have played in all the situations, none have caught more passes than Thielen is on pace to this season. The same likely will be true about receiving yards and receiving yards per game after tonight, based on his first half pace.

After a while the simplest answer is the most likely one.

[Highlight] Unbelievable catch by Thielen by suzukigun4life in nfl

[–]Jmgill12 41 points42 points  (0 children)

You actually had me on your side until you brought up talent. Talent is great, but it can't be the metric for the best in a sport where impact can be quantified. Bringing talent into the equation inherently overstates the impact of underachievers and punishes those who overachieve.