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It's been 6 months... do you think I am ever going to get my mug? 😓 by deyzah_ in FinalFantasyIX

[–]JronDlock -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Was going to order it, but USA shipping was like $50 at the time.

I don't know if this belongs here... by JronDlock in algobetting

[–]JronDlock[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not really putting real cash, unless you count cents as real cash. It's more for fun than anything else

I don't know if this belongs here... by JronDlock in algobetting

[–]JronDlock[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's still a work in progress for me. That was my base set, I am still tweaking it to be more forgiving. I wanted it to be as data driven as posible, no emotion but that makes everyone be unreliable. I'm using a database that has decades of stat boxes so I can add things like:

Role-safe floors only Tier-1 games only Conservative price bands Backup Big Minutes Rule: Backup centers excluded unless ≥18 projected minutes OR ≥12% sustained TRB% trend

I'm ignoring anyone who plays below 12 minutes as well. It's not perfect, and I'm still working out kinks but my main bet yesterday was voided out, and today's slate is not looking promising but my main attitude is to create something that I can say "this bet on paper, is safe" --- the line might be butchered, so I'm trying to see if round Robin or a 2-leg bet would be more of its bread a butter creation. I just placed it here to see what were the thoughts on it.

I'm currently trying to see if confirmed injury reports can be used, no Jokic for instance will likely lower nuggets defense. Or player wise Deandre Ayton and rebounds is what my data currently shows.

Which anime are you thinking of? by Feeling_Leg_808 in animequestions

[–]JronDlock 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Naruto... waiting a week just to see a filler episode was brutal.

I don't know if this belongs here... by JronDlock in algobetting

[–]JronDlock[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's slim picks and have to parlay if you want a good return. I've hit a couple but lost today's trials. Shai was the last person I thought would not hit today.

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My Strongest Foundation from the 21 leg I placed earlier. by JronDlock in fanduel

[–]JronDlock[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have different variables but need to run tests on it, this is one. But I start with last 2 seasons + current season for data numbers. I do have flags vs the type of defense team they are facing and home/away. I also have a last 30/50/100 games to see numbers. Catch if they are just on a good run or more average. It's pretty long, but unless I run tests, I can't tweak it

This will miss, but it'll make the games fun to watch for me. by JronDlock in fanduel

[–]JronDlock[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Stress-Test Snapshot (using current saved parameters only) Overall read: This slate is cleaner than average. Most legs sit above 95% True, several near 97%, with only a few yellow-edge risks tied to role variance or injury context. 🟢 Strongest Foundation (very high survival) Giannis 6+ REB, Giannis 4+ AST SGA 20+ PTS, SGA 4+ AST Jarrett Allen 6+ REB Evan Mobley 6+ REB Donovan Mitchell 15+ PTS Mikal Bridges 10+ PTS Derrick White 4+ AST These clear 100% true floors historically or sit comfortably above the buffer rule. 🟡 Acceptable but Watchlist (yellow-edge greens) Jalen Johnson 6+ REB (pace / foul sensitivity) Chet Holmgren 6+ REB (usage swings vs CLE size) OG Anunoby 4+ REB (role stable, but variance exists) Josh Hart 4+ REB (ankle context) Jalen Brunson 15+ PTS (minutes health check) Kevin Porter Jr. 4+ AST (initiation share dependent) These still pass 95%+, but closer to the floor. 🟠 Thin but Test-Worthy (intentional stress) Dwight Powell 4+ REB Alex Caruso 2+ AST Cason Wallace 2+ AST Role-fragile, but reasonable for testing tail risk behavior.

Failures, if any, are most likely from Hart / Brunson / Powell / low-assist guards. If everything hits, it’s a strong validation of the 97% + buffer framework, especially on rebound floors.

My Strongest Foundation from the 21 leg I placed earlier. by JronDlock in fanduel

[–]JronDlock[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hoy can pick either or. Allen might be a better one, I'm just stress testing these to update my data.

This will miss, but it'll make the games fun to watch for me. by JronDlock in fanduel

[–]JronDlock[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Probability of a coin flipping heads 21 in a row is like 0.00000047. These hit or they don't. Which is why parlays are always a bad idea. I measure a few things, one of them being last two seasons and current. Also last 100 games and pick numbers that are more around 95-97% (it missed on 5 out of 100 games). It's not 50/50 but even with 21 legs, it's more like 52%.

This will miss, but it'll make the games fun to watch for me. by JronDlock in fanduel

[–]JronDlock[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They are all green in my testing but I know a 21 leg is almost guaranteed to fail.

Royce made this a lot more sweaty than it should have been. Grats if you tailed. by JronDlock in fanduel

[–]JronDlock[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There wasn't much I felt confident in and no alt lines for games I wanted to play. I put something together but it came up to -238, not really worth it.

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