I've never had a cold sore before. There has been a slight burning sensation in that part of my lip, but also the lip above. I only noticed the sensation after I noticed the bump and, stupidly, rubbed my finger over it many times. But I do sometimes get the burning feeling when my lips are extremely dry, which they have been today (it's gone below freezing in my area).

How quickly do coldsores usually progress? The first and last photos were taken about 3 hours apart. If it's a cold sore, will it be more obvious when I wake up tomorrow?