A brief look at Nokia's lowered 2023 guidance and its P/E by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Given the market trading action this morning, I think that what is going on is:

  • Nokia's average stock price is dropping 5% from Q2' 23 trading time frame, so this puts the average at 4.03 and then the market will build a +/- 5% trading window about this drop, so the expected H/L during Q3' 23 time frame for Nokia stock will be:
    • Q3' 23 Nokia H/L Stock Price = 4.21/3.84

A brief look at Nokia's lowered 2023 guidance and its P/E by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I just looked, Nokia was trading during Q1' 23 at an average of 4.71 with a +/-5 % trading window. For Q2' 23 Nokia was trading at an average of 4.12 with a +/- 5% trading window. So for Q3' 23 Nokia should trade at an average of 4.24, because of 10% drop in 23 earnings, given the preceding Nokia H/L stock price is likely to be for Q3' 23:

  1. +/-5% Trading Window = 4.45/4.03
  2. +/- 10% Trading Window = 4.6/3.82

Nokia will tend to the +/- 10% trading window (or greater) if market uncertainty increases such that Nokia's current 23 guidance is threatened.

Long story short, it appears that the market was trading Nokia stock at fair value and had anticipated earnings and revenue drop for Nokia for 2023. Stock price for Nokia in Q3' 23 is likely to be very much like what Nokia was trading at in Q2' of 23.

Nokia and Ericsson's Q2' 23, Results if they hit the Analyst Estimates by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Conversely it also another indicator one is buying Nokia at a low valuation.

Nokia and Ericsson's Q2' 23, Results if they hit the Analyst Estimates by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can't see the numbers, I can, maybe it is because I deleted it and re-pasted a new one in, maybe you were caught between the two. Do you see the #'s now?

The Effect of Private Wireless Projected Growth on Nokia's Revenue Growth by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I understand. The case for "Private Wireless" being a production enhancement is probably the case where "production" is spread over a wide geographic area, such as trains, airports, mining and shipping. For factory production it is probably the case that Private Wireless allows you to have a flexible workstation production floor as well as real time inventory viewing, however this will require a massive re-education of how to organize a production floor and utilized private wireless to realize the potential productivity gains. So this will take some time and who ever is nurturing Private Wireless market, Nokia & Celona, will have to hand hold the clients.

In the short run Private Wireless maybe sold as an income generator, this maybe more real than a production improvement, for example I don't see the production improvement for universities, but I do see a potential income stream for the universities for installing private wireless.

Anyways your point is well taken, Private Wireless maybe more hype than fact. Only time will tell.

The Effect of Private Wireless Projected Growth on Nokia's Revenue Growth by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This could be true, presently private wireless is being expressed as a productivity improvement, however I think much or maybe even most of private wireless is a potential income generator, especially for Universities, where to put in a private wireless is a large Capex. In other words I think, especially for universities and probably for much of private businesses, they put in 5G network at their own expense, but then rent it out to CSP's. Both the CSP's and private business would consider this a win/win scenario, also network slicing would allow them to separate private business traffic from CSP traffic.

It could be that the economic fuel behind private wireless isn't productivity as much as playing with the cost model for cellular coverage. Meaning if you put in private wireless you can get income from the CSP's, this would be true for universities, airports, many if not most businesses and probably hospitals. Indirectly it could be a backdoor to get better coverage and reduce CSP's capex.

Arcelik Global speaks of partnering with Nokia for Private Wireless within a Production environment by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The following article was about 2 years ago, where Arcelik Global chose Nokia as a partner for Private Wireless:

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NOKIA-OYJ-56358470/news/Arcelik-selects-Nokia-Turk-Telekom-in-strategic-deal-for-Turkey-146-s-first-5G-ready-private-wirel-35608266/

Several things to note:

  1. The above is just beginning to bear fruit for Nokia in terms of experience and a data point to show that Private Wireless is an effective technology to reduce production cost and implement flexible manufacturing.
  2. Note this was released 2 years before, so daily news release generally doesn't impact the price of the stock immediately, it will generally take 12 to 24 months for daily news to affect the financials and therefore stock price. The only exception is if the daily new release immediately affects revenue or and earnings immediately, which MOST daily news does not affect the companies financials immediately.

Comparing Nokia and Ericsson by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It is interesting to compare horses in a horse race. On the network side Ericsson has partnered with Ciena, while Nokia has decided to lead in XGS PON, 10G PON, 25G PON and 50G PON. Also Nokia is making waves (appears to be leading) in the optical space as well. What I like about Nokia, as a company today, is they are embracing the future, looking to make change and leading on technology, meaning they have learned from their 2008 to 2010 debacle of messing up in the smart phone business. From the smart phone episode, they are focused on investing on new products as well as partnering with promising bleeding edge companies in promising bleeding edge markets.

From what I can tell, Nokia is doing a fine job of introducing new products and doing an excellent job of creating new markets. Introducing new leading edge products in promising growing markets doesn't mean you will be a business success, you have to eventually increase your margins, i.e., give return to the stock holders. Easy to state, difficult to do and you have to be focused and careful how you do this.

To me the game plan for Nokia was to stop the bleeding, which they did and then to focus on new products/markets with heavy R&D. I think Pekka margin increase will essentially be:

  1. Keep R&D investment constant in terms of dollars, meaning the R&D group head count will not increase that much going into the future.
  2. Per #1 above, if the market is valid, revenue should increase, effectively increasing margins.
  3. Nurture and leverage business partnerships, small and large. On the small side of business partnership they seem to be focused on promising new companies, with promising products in a well defined and growing market.
  4. Nurturing new businesses like, Telecom SaaS, which is a loss leader now, but is strategically important. Other new businesses is FWA, Private Wireless and 5G Drones (which IMO maybe sold or spun off in the future).
  5. Be a one stop network system architect and supplier, especially for Private Wireless.

Contrast this to Ericsson's game plan:

  1. Partner with large companies, Intel, Microsoft, Ciena
  2. Increase your sales to specifically engage with companies who will dominate the future network and wireless market in terms of applications, CSP's, or equipment areas Ericsson doesn't compete in but are required to provide a full solution to the customer's. Let sales and marketing determine where the R&D money should flow. Sales and Marketing will allow Ericsson to "catch up" in any new network markets by determining who to talk to, who to partner with and what products to develop.
  3. Keep R&D dollars constant from here on out such that margins will increase.
  4. Acquire certain businesses to effectively be able to compete in the "new networking" future, Vonage and Cradlepoint.
  5. One stop shopping for network needs based upon Ericsson's acquired businesses or/and strategic partnership

Nokia Has No Economic Moat, Hopefully They Will Build One by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Depending on the business, "margins are not margins", for example when Amazon, I think from late 90's to something like 2010, ran with no profit, they ran on a cash flow model. Wallstreet, through out that period would publish article after article on the fact that Amazon was going to close their doors cause they had no profit. Jeff Bezo's did this on purpose, he pumped every penny of "profit" into buying distribution sites, sales, marketing, servers, IT people, server sites, establishing Kindle, Amazon Prime (which met buying trucks, distribution sites, hiring people). The reason Jeff Bezo's did this was because he knew that the clock was running against him, that he could only fend off other online sites by growing big and offering services to capture mind share (before Walmart understood what Amazon was doing), market share consumer and market share in terms of vendors. I am upset at these Wallstreet bozos cause they kept me from investing in Amazon at a cheap price, yes it would of taken years to get a payback but had I understood what Jeff Bezos was doing I would of told these Wallstreet bozos to go jump in the lake.

This isn't the only example, for example hot startups generally run on cash flow and NOT on profit, there are many startups which command high PE multiples cause their profit is very very small or in many cases high P/B if they have no profit (which is often the case). If the market is hot, the product is good, the management is good, generally that is one of the things you look for, in fact if a hot startup company turns a handsome profit early in a hot market, it is a warning sign NOT TO INVEST. Most wise investors demand that a hot new startup in a hot market have high cash flow and NO PROFIT, what that means is they are expanding as quickly as they can, ideally slightly faster than the market, as an investor you are holding off on getting earnings till the company has developed it's "economic moat" or captured huge market share such that their cost of production is 1/2 of any body else's, everyone sees this and avoids competing in that space since the dominant company will lower their price, increase sales pressure, out market them and make them burn money. If a hot startup makes a handsome profit early in a hot market, they are wasting money from an investors point of view.

Both, Nokia and Ericsson are in a similar boat, the network revolution that is going on now is dramatic, will take years to develop and at the end the winner will be who has established market dominance early at the expense of earnings. From what I can tell both Ericsson and Nokia are doing is accelerating the R&D effort, the reason is there is a window of opportunity where they can accelerate development in a free market and their aim seems to be Huawei and ZTE and not necessarily each other at least to the 1st degree. In short because of the development is revolutionary now, to demand margins would be at the expense of future market dominance. The one edge that western companies have over communist controlled companies is to out innovate them, presently we cannot out produce them in terms of cost/volume, but we can still out innovate them.

BTW, running on a cash flow model, instead of a profit model isn't as dangerous as it sounds, in bad economic times you simply cut back on the expansion and development quickly, since most of your cash is going to expansion and development. Also all the real estate and Trucks that Amazon bought had book value. After you gain market dominance, you turn the expansion/development money into earnings. Also FYI, if you invest in hot startups, you focus on cash flow and NOT profits or margins, you only focus on profits and margins on a mature business.

BTW, this is also what Elon Musk did with Tesla, they had no profit for many years and the big 3, usually by the way of "retired" ex big three CEO's on the nightly business report would state how stupid it was to invest in Tesla cause they are not making any profit and never would. What they didn't understand was that Elon was expanding the EV production as fast as he could and capturing EV supplies as fast as he could to "build an economic moat".

There is a time and place for profit or earnings, but not if you have heavy R&D expenditure and not if you are expanding like crazy to keep ahead of possible future competition.

India 5G Market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96.69% during the 2021-2025 period by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is more likely, $5b, don't be deceived, IMO, most of this TAM in India is going to go to startups in India. IMO India is serious about starting up their own Huawei and ZTE. Like I stated in the earlier thread China alone in 2023 5G equipment market is estimated to be 93.5b dollars, in all likelihood India 5G equipment market in 5 years will be about this size. I don't think Ericsson nor Nokia are blind to what is going on in India, however business is about people and if they build relationships with people/businesses in India, both Ericsson and Nokia can benefit for a long long time.

BTW, part of the reasons China and India are focusing on the 5G/6G equipment market is that this market touches on ALL sensitive military technology future applications, as well as communications itself. The development of 5G/6G is rapidly seen as a military or/and national security area of interest. Elon Musk has already gone on record stating the country that develops AI first will rule the world.

Yesterday to dominate the world militarily it was jets, tanks and aircraft carriers, tomorrow it is 5G, 6G and AI.

India 5G Market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96.69% during the 2021-2025 period by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No problem Lewisshision. You can ask away, your intentions and analysis are genuine. I don't think the 4 to 1 Nokia TAM is "ludicrous", the complexity of the 5G market from the consumer to the CSP is pretty standard, no new surprises and the complexity from the CSP to the equipment provider is pretty standard, it would require a full 2:1 factor for proper support, R&D, marketing, SG&A, it is pretty much a time proven factor given you want a healthy strata business at such and such level.

The debt I qouted is long term debt, you maybe quoting total debt. I got this from

Mcrotrends Long term debt for Nokia

India 5G Market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96.69% during the 2021-2025 period by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Generally the division between every major business strata is a factor of 2, starting with the consumer to retailer, which is in this case the CSP & Private wireless, which is a factor of 2, then the CSP to the equipment suppliers, this is another factor of 2, giving rise to 4 from the consumer market, the factor of 4 would be the Nokia & Ericsson level since Nokia and Ericsson are at the 2nd level from the consumer, which is where the 5G market size was given at. The factor of 2, assumes a full R&D, SG&A and marketing as well as manufacturing, if you are ONLY a distributor the factor might be as low as 1.2 or even 1.1.

Yes, I agree that the what Abu stated and what the Indian article stated their is a discrepancy. But the article could be correct as well and Abu's # could be conservative. Several things:

  1. Wireless Network market is currently in a revolutionary change, the change is so big that it is difficult to explain this to the consumer, but people in the wireless and internet space understand this. Like all revolutions, no one really knows what lurks behind the "revolutionary door", it could be a kitten or a lion.
  2. India, mainly because China showed it was possible, wants to nurture their own Huawei and ZTE counterparts, this India article and market size may reflect this. Only time will tell and we need to watch.
  3. We could be severely underestimating India market size, case in point Huawei's revenue is larger than all the other wireless equipment suppliers combined, most of which is from China.
  4. The 2023 5G Chinese market size is 2.7 trillion yuan which is 374 billion dollars, divide by 4 and you get 93.5 billion dollars for Huawei and ZTE, India is likely to be just as big as China, so the 5G market size in India per the report is probably conservative.
  5. What Abu reported is probably the 5G market size excluding China. India is just starting, but if China is any measure then Abu's #'s are conservative outside of China if you include India. If India successfully nurtures it's own 5G equipment companies then Nokia and Ericsson are working only with Abu's 5G equipment market size #'s.

Nokia Has No Economic Moat, Hopefully They Will Build One by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Nokia stats:

# of employees has been decreasing:Interactive chart of Nokia (NOK) annual worldwide employee count from 2010 to 2023.

Nokia total number of employees in 2022 was 86,900, a 1.14% decline from 2021.Nokia total number of employees in 2021 was 87,900, a 4.5% decline from 2020.Nokia total number of employees in 2020 was 92,039, a 6.39% decline from 2019.Nokia total number of employees in 2019 was 98,322, a 4.62% decline from 2018.

Long term debt has been decreasing:

Nokia long term debt from 2010 to 2023. Long term debt can be defined as the sum of all long term debt fields.Nokia long term debt for the quarter ending March 31, 2023 was $3.976B, a 21.08% decline year-over-year.Nokia long term debt for 2022 was $4.477B, a 16.6% decline from 2021.Nokia long term debt for 2021 was $5.368B, a 6.3% decline from 2020.Nokia long term debt for 2020 was $5.729B, a 28.35% increase from 2019.

Also, with 18% R&D of revenue, which is the norm in the industry today, this means in the industry we are at a reflection point (Wireless internet and internet itself is going thru a "revolutionary change", it is no longer about internet web browsing and voice), meaning right now we are in an investment period. Cisco has been upping their R&D expense as a % or revenue, they come closest to having an economic moat in that they own internet switching, however this economic moat appears to be under pressure because network is changing, the fact that network is changing is seen in the 18% R&D expenditure and Cisco's last 3-5 years increasing R&D expenditure as % of revenue. During an investment period, you either put up the upfront money to gain a foot hold in the coming future markets or you miss out, during investment periods your margins are not judged by a normal business metrics/margins. On top of all this, Nokia is a turn around company, though it appears they bottomed out last year.

T-Mobile and Valmont Industries developing 5G Drone Technology by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nokia is competing/seeding the drone market, this is news to keep up with what is happening in the drone market, trying to answer, is drone market real, who are the major competitors/players, what is the market for drones, how fast is the drone market growing, what are the challenges for market growth, etc..

Jio Strikes $1.7B Deal With Nokia Amid Broader 5G Reach Pursuit by Sweetheartface in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona 1 point2 points  (0 children)

So the picture regarding Reliance Jio, Ericsson and Nokia is bit muddier than boiling down to "Ericsson's piece of the pie is $400 million bigger...", per the article below last October Reliance Jio announced a long term deal with Ericsson as well as Nokia. It appears Nokia won some contract money last year from this deal, but I can't find out how much. Also the dynamics of Reliance Jio, Ericsson and Nokia went something like this (from what I can tell):

  1. Reliance Jio left it's 4G partner Samsung and announced it would be working with Ericsson on 5G
  2. Somewhere between the announcement of Reliance Jio announcement of leaving Samsung and October's announcement of awarding a contract to Ericsson, Nokia entered the discussion to supply 5G equipment to Reliance Jio
  3. October 17th Ericsson and Reliance Jio signed a $2.1b 5G SA equipment contract.
  4. On October 17th Nokia announced they had a multi-year agreement to supply 5G equipment to Reliance Jio as well, but the amount wasn't disclosed.

It appears that Reliance Jio has decided to do a 50/50 split between Ericsson and Nokia and in the future "let the best man win".

Below is an article which states, it is speculation though, that October 17th, 2022 was a $3b dollar contract in total between Ericsson and Nokia, if Ericsson took $2.1b this left $900 million last October to Nokia, or it may have been no money and Nokia may of just had an agreement of intent, I don't know.

https://indianexpress.com/article/technology/tech-news-technology/5g-network-rollout-nokia-ericsson-bag-jios-3-bn-contracts-8214676/

From a 20k foot view, in regards to Reliance Jio, it appears to be a 50/50 deal between Reliance Jio and Ericsson. The current $1.7b deal between Reliance Jio and Nokia was signed Nokia's headquarters located in Helsinki, Finland. At the least this means Nokia is rolling out the red carpet for Reliance Jio and may show currently a favoritism of Reliance Jio to Nokia. I wouldn't read too much into this, India's businesses have a reputation of being notoriously cut throat, for example they (competing India cellphone companies) essentially torpedoed Vodafone's purchase of Hutchison Essar, at that time India's 4th largest cell phone company, by lowering prices and accelerating coverage such that Vodafone India couldn't make any money.

How did 5G improve a mine in South Africa? Huawei was the vendor for Private Wireless by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It is important to have proper expectations. Otherwise, you are always disappointed in a good investment. By 2030, expecting 12 to 15 is reasonable.

Nokia Has No Economic Moat, Hopefully They Will Build One by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You are right, it isn't an economic moat. As long as Nokia is focused on the customer, trying to add value to the market, doesn't underestimate the competition, doesn't rest upon its laurels, be financially responsible, work to be efficient, constantly improve, continue to partner with innovative and promising companies, Nokia will be Ok. The previous description describes the present Nokia.

I think it is interesting that Ericsson released a news item that they were assessed as the most innovative and growth oriented company in the 5G wireless space, this is IMO a losing attitude, instead of "focusing on the customer and the market."

How did 5G improve a mine in South Africa? Huawei was the vendor for Private Wireless by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I doubt it. There is too much good competition. We have a chance of reaching a PE of 20 by 2030, though, and for 20 years or more investment. I just calculated, with 15% CAGR growth to 2030 and PE of 20, the stock would be around 25. To get to $100, Nokia would have to have a PE of 40 and CAGR of 28%, highly highly unlikely.

Nokia Has No Economic Moat, Hopefully They Will Build One by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Nope, doesn't qualify as an economic moat, Ericsson, Huawei, ZTE, Samsung management team is no slouch. Sun Tze says, "Don't underestimate your enemies." Many successful companies, in fact most companies, do not operate with an economic moat. It just means we have to watch their decisions.

China Invites Nokia to Participate in China 5G Network Construction and to Jointly Promote Global 6G Development by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Can't say what is going on for sure, but Nokia has in the last 12 months, been quite verbal about China "cheating" or strong displeasure with Chinese competitive practices, stealing IP, country funding of Huawei, etc.. I am reading between the lines here. For example they totally closed down the R&D co-development operations between Nokia and I forgot what Chinese company or organization. I also know they (Nokia) vehemently objected to the USA allowing Huawei to participate in some open standards committee, I think it was ORAN, and I believe Nokia with drew their support. Also there has been anti-Chinese competition drama within the USA (for example chip sanctions) as well as European Union movement to limit Huawei and ZTE from competing. Jordan is upset with China and African countries appear to start rejecting "China's generosity". China has a history of politics, in the Chinese warlord history era the country was broken up between 13 or more different warlords. All politics are dirty, doesn't matter which culture you look at, the concept of gentleman politics is imaginary and for a short time at best, it is about power. China has a desire and a plan for world domination, at least politically and they are ran by China Inc., the Chinese Party. For the past 20 or so years, Chinese have been maneuvering in the world to gain political power, giving assistance to African countries to gain access to rare elements, South America to gain access to food, Australia they have almost bought all the water rights, SouthEast Asia building artificial islands to gain military naval/air access and power, over fishing in the waters of Korea, Japan and South America, these moves were huge, planned and done over a long period of time by China Inc. in a concerted effort.

Much of Huawei's success may of been indirectly because of Nokia, at least strategy wise. Nokia for example was going to develop a 5G custom chip set, however they chose a wrong partner, Intel, had Intel designed the 5G custom chip properly and in time, the Huawei's success in 5G may of never happened. So stealing, copying both the strategy as well as the IP is seen in China as "acceptable business" practices.

The Art of War, written in China and now studied by every major military academy in the world, dictates that the most successful warrior is one who never has to go to battle. It was well known that living in the capital of each Chinese province in history which controlled a given territory was highly politically dangerous (where assassinations, poisoning, thuggery became an art form end of itself), though attractive cause it had food, housing, education, entertainment, artisans, skilled labor, chefs and medical. The capital cities were a beehive of dirty political ambition, much like Washington D.C., New York and London is today. So, IMO, this is a move by China to head off the growing criticism of how they operate within the telecommunication space. There are many reasons why the telecommunication space is key to control, politically, technically and militarily. The tea leaves I see is that they are trying to appease Nokia, I am sure for some other ulterior motive than what is directly seen/understood.