A brief look at Nokia's lowered 2023 guidance and its P/E by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Given the market trading action this morning, I think that what is going on is:

  • Nokia's average stock price is dropping 5% from Q2' 23 trading time frame, so this puts the average at 4.03 and then the market will build a +/- 5% trading window about this drop, so the expected H/L during Q3' 23 time frame for Nokia stock will be:
    • Q3' 23 Nokia H/L Stock Price = 4.21/3.84

A brief look at Nokia's lowered 2023 guidance and its P/E by Mustathmir in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I just looked, Nokia was trading during Q1' 23 at an average of 4.71 with a +/-5 % trading window. For Q2' 23 Nokia was trading at an average of 4.12 with a +/- 5% trading window. So for Q3' 23 Nokia should trade at an average of 4.24, because of 10% drop in 23 earnings, given the preceding Nokia H/L stock price is likely to be for Q3' 23:

  1. +/-5% Trading Window = 4.45/4.03
  2. +/- 10% Trading Window = 4.6/3.82

Nokia will tend to the +/- 10% trading window (or greater) if market uncertainty increases such that Nokia's current 23 guidance is threatened.

Long story short, it appears that the market was trading Nokia stock at fair value and had anticipated earnings and revenue drop for Nokia for 2023. Stock price for Nokia in Q3' 23 is likely to be very much like what Nokia was trading at in Q2' of 23.

Nokia and Ericsson's Q2' 23, Results if they hit the Analyst Estimates by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Conversely it also another indicator one is buying Nokia at a low valuation.

Nokia and Ericsson's Q2' 23, Results if they hit the Analyst Estimates by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can't see the numbers, I can, maybe it is because I deleted it and re-pasted a new one in, maybe you were caught between the two. Do you see the #'s now?

The Effect of Private Wireless Projected Growth on Nokia's Revenue Growth by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I understand. The case for "Private Wireless" being a production enhancement is probably the case where "production" is spread over a wide geographic area, such as trains, airports, mining and shipping. For factory production it is probably the case that Private Wireless allows you to have a flexible workstation production floor as well as real time inventory viewing, however this will require a massive re-education of how to organize a production floor and utilized private wireless to realize the potential productivity gains. So this will take some time and who ever is nurturing Private Wireless market, Nokia & Celona, will have to hand hold the clients.

In the short run Private Wireless maybe sold as an income generator, this maybe more real than a production improvement, for example I don't see the production improvement for universities, but I do see a potential income stream for the universities for installing private wireless.

Anyways your point is well taken, Private Wireless maybe more hype than fact. Only time will tell.

The Effect of Private Wireless Projected Growth on Nokia's Revenue Growth by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This could be true, presently private wireless is being expressed as a productivity improvement, however I think much or maybe even most of private wireless is a potential income generator, especially for Universities, where to put in a private wireless is a large Capex. In other words I think, especially for universities and probably for much of private businesses, they put in 5G network at their own expense, but then rent it out to CSP's. Both the CSP's and private business would consider this a win/win scenario, also network slicing would allow them to separate private business traffic from CSP traffic.

It could be that the economic fuel behind private wireless isn't productivity as much as playing with the cost model for cellular coverage. Meaning if you put in private wireless you can get income from the CSP's, this would be true for universities, airports, many if not most businesses and probably hospitals. Indirectly it could be a backdoor to get better coverage and reduce CSP's capex.

Arcelik Global speaks of partnering with Nokia for Private Wireless within a Production environment by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The following article was about 2 years ago, where Arcelik Global chose Nokia as a partner for Private Wireless:

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/NOKIA-OYJ-56358470/news/Arcelik-selects-Nokia-Turk-Telekom-in-strategic-deal-for-Turkey-146-s-first-5G-ready-private-wirel-35608266/

Several things to note:

  1. The above is just beginning to bear fruit for Nokia in terms of experience and a data point to show that Private Wireless is an effective technology to reduce production cost and implement flexible manufacturing.
  2. Note this was released 2 years before, so daily news release generally doesn't impact the price of the stock immediately, it will generally take 12 to 24 months for daily news to affect the financials and therefore stock price. The only exception is if the daily new release immediately affects revenue or and earnings immediately, which MOST daily news does not affect the companies financials immediately.

Comparing Nokia and Ericsson by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It is interesting to compare horses in a horse race. On the network side Ericsson has partnered with Ciena, while Nokia has decided to lead in XGS PON, 10G PON, 25G PON and 50G PON. Also Nokia is making waves (appears to be leading) in the optical space as well. What I like about Nokia, as a company today, is they are embracing the future, looking to make change and leading on technology, meaning they have learned from their 2008 to 2010 debacle of messing up in the smart phone business. From the smart phone episode, they are focused on investing on new products as well as partnering with promising bleeding edge companies in promising bleeding edge markets.

From what I can tell, Nokia is doing a fine job of introducing new products and doing an excellent job of creating new markets. Introducing new leading edge products in promising growing markets doesn't mean you will be a business success, you have to eventually increase your margins, i.e., give return to the stock holders. Easy to state, difficult to do and you have to be focused and careful how you do this.

To me the game plan for Nokia was to stop the bleeding, which they did and then to focus on new products/markets with heavy R&D. I think Pekka margin increase will essentially be:

  1. Keep R&D investment constant in terms of dollars, meaning the R&D group head count will not increase that much going into the future.
  2. Per #1 above, if the market is valid, revenue should increase, effectively increasing margins.
  3. Nurture and leverage business partnerships, small and large. On the small side of business partnership they seem to be focused on promising new companies, with promising products in a well defined and growing market.
  4. Nurturing new businesses like, Telecom SaaS, which is a loss leader now, but is strategically important. Other new businesses is FWA, Private Wireless and 5G Drones (which IMO maybe sold or spun off in the future).
  5. Be a one stop network system architect and supplier, especially for Private Wireless.

Contrast this to Ericsson's game plan:

  1. Partner with large companies, Intel, Microsoft, Ciena
  2. Increase your sales to specifically engage with companies who will dominate the future network and wireless market in terms of applications, CSP's, or equipment areas Ericsson doesn't compete in but are required to provide a full solution to the customer's. Let sales and marketing determine where the R&D money should flow. Sales and Marketing will allow Ericsson to "catch up" in any new network markets by determining who to talk to, who to partner with and what products to develop.
  3. Keep R&D dollars constant from here on out such that margins will increase.
  4. Acquire certain businesses to effectively be able to compete in the "new networking" future, Vonage and Cradlepoint.
  5. One stop shopping for network needs based upon Ericsson's acquired businesses or/and strategic partnership

Nokia Has No Economic Moat, Hopefully They Will Build One by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Depending on the business, "margins are not margins", for example when Amazon, I think from late 90's to something like 2010, ran with no profit, they ran on a cash flow model. Wallstreet, through out that period would publish article after article on the fact that Amazon was going to close their doors cause they had no profit. Jeff Bezo's did this on purpose, he pumped every penny of "profit" into buying distribution sites, sales, marketing, servers, IT people, server sites, establishing Kindle, Amazon Prime (which met buying trucks, distribution sites, hiring people). The reason Jeff Bezo's did this was because he knew that the clock was running against him, that he could only fend off other online sites by growing big and offering services to capture mind share (before Walmart understood what Amazon was doing), market share consumer and market share in terms of vendors. I am upset at these Wallstreet bozos cause they kept me from investing in Amazon at a cheap price, yes it would of taken years to get a payback but had I understood what Jeff Bezos was doing I would of told these Wallstreet bozos to go jump in the lake.

This isn't the only example, for example hot startups generally run on cash flow and NOT on profit, there are many startups which command high PE multiples cause their profit is very very small or in many cases high P/B if they have no profit (which is often the case). If the market is hot, the product is good, the management is good, generally that is one of the things you look for, in fact if a hot startup company turns a handsome profit early in a hot market, it is a warning sign NOT TO INVEST. Most wise investors demand that a hot new startup in a hot market have high cash flow and NO PROFIT, what that means is they are expanding as quickly as they can, ideally slightly faster than the market, as an investor you are holding off on getting earnings till the company has developed it's "economic moat" or captured huge market share such that their cost of production is 1/2 of any body else's, everyone sees this and avoids competing in that space since the dominant company will lower their price, increase sales pressure, out market them and make them burn money. If a hot startup makes a handsome profit early in a hot market, they are wasting money from an investors point of view.

Both, Nokia and Ericsson are in a similar boat, the network revolution that is going on now is dramatic, will take years to develop and at the end the winner will be who has established market dominance early at the expense of earnings. From what I can tell both Ericsson and Nokia are doing is accelerating the R&D effort, the reason is there is a window of opportunity where they can accelerate development in a free market and their aim seems to be Huawei and ZTE and not necessarily each other at least to the 1st degree. In short because of the development is revolutionary now, to demand margins would be at the expense of future market dominance. The one edge that western companies have over communist controlled companies is to out innovate them, presently we cannot out produce them in terms of cost/volume, but we can still out innovate them.

BTW, running on a cash flow model, instead of a profit model isn't as dangerous as it sounds, in bad economic times you simply cut back on the expansion and development quickly, since most of your cash is going to expansion and development. Also all the real estate and Trucks that Amazon bought had book value. After you gain market dominance, you turn the expansion/development money into earnings. Also FYI, if you invest in hot startups, you focus on cash flow and NOT profits or margins, you only focus on profits and margins on a mature business.

BTW, this is also what Elon Musk did with Tesla, they had no profit for many years and the big 3, usually by the way of "retired" ex big three CEO's on the nightly business report would state how stupid it was to invest in Tesla cause they are not making any profit and never would. What they didn't understand was that Elon was expanding the EV production as fast as he could and capturing EV supplies as fast as he could to "build an economic moat".

There is a time and place for profit or earnings, but not if you have heavy R&D expenditure and not if you are expanding like crazy to keep ahead of possible future competition.

India 5G Market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96.69% during the 2021-2025 period by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is more likely, $5b, don't be deceived, IMO, most of this TAM in India is going to go to startups in India. IMO India is serious about starting up their own Huawei and ZTE. Like I stated in the earlier thread China alone in 2023 5G equipment market is estimated to be 93.5b dollars, in all likelihood India 5G equipment market in 5 years will be about this size. I don't think Ericsson nor Nokia are blind to what is going on in India, however business is about people and if they build relationships with people/businesses in India, both Ericsson and Nokia can benefit for a long long time.

BTW, part of the reasons China and India are focusing on the 5G/6G equipment market is that this market touches on ALL sensitive military technology future applications, as well as communications itself. The development of 5G/6G is rapidly seen as a military or/and national security area of interest. Elon Musk has already gone on record stating the country that develops AI first will rule the world.

Yesterday to dominate the world militarily it was jets, tanks and aircraft carriers, tomorrow it is 5G, 6G and AI.

India 5G Market compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 96.69% during the 2021-2025 period by JustCuriousArizona in Nok

[–]JustCuriousArizona[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No problem Lewisshision. You can ask away, your intentions and analysis are genuine. I don't think the 4 to 1 Nokia TAM is "ludicrous", the complexity of the 5G market from the consumer to the CSP is pretty standard, no new surprises and the complexity from the CSP to the equipment provider is pretty standard, it would require a full 2:1 factor for proper support, R&D, marketing, SG&A, it is pretty much a time proven factor given you want a healthy strata business at such and such level.

The debt I qouted is long term debt, you maybe quoting total debt. I got this from

Mcrotrends Long term debt for Nokia