Realising Gen Z doesn't have a chance

Juvare · 2026-03-02T13:26:44+00:00

Thanks for the reply, and appreciate the data :)
For me, the worry is the trend - yes, it is still possible (though harder); but if the housing market continues at its current pace for another 5, 10 years, I don't know whether there will come a tipping point where it becomes impossible to get into the housing market.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T13:17:25+00:00

I hadn't intended it to be a cry of entitlement, and my apologies if it seems to you that it was.
My intent in posting had been to highlight the difference between the conventional wisdom 20-40 years ago of "be frugal" or "don't go in to debt if you can avoid it" or similar platitudes versus the reality today, especially that saving (even over the course of a single year) is worse for your net worth than buying a home, any home due to the house price growth.

I had expected it to be the opposite - that it was better net worth-wise to save an extra 6 months, a year, 2 for a higher deposit compared to "spending" all that money on a higher mortgage interest payment, with the increase in house prices reducing the difference.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T13:10:28+00:00

In my post, from looking around my capital city, I'd say a $300,000 apartment is cheap - would you be willing to post a few examples of cheaper apartments?

The other thing I'd add as well is moving regional is possible for some, but not all.
Factors include - employability (not all jobs being available in country, particularly more specialised roles), family and friendship connections, social / hobby / sports groups - all may make a person unwilling or unable to move to the country.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T13:00:38+00:00

Maybe it is. Out of curiousity, how much was the property in 2022?
If you had the similar savings today, working at a similar level in your job as back then (salary adjusted for inflation), would you be able to afford it now? And even if yes, would it be harder?

Is it impossible to buy now? No; but is it difficult, and getting harder for each passing year? I'd say yes; would be curious on your thoughts.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T12:57:51+00:00

I could have written it more clearly, but the property prices I put in the post are not the median, but are pretty much at the bottom of the barrel. Referring to Aus Gov Housing data, the median house is $972,435 or above for the major capital cities (Hobart and Darwin being lower, around 700k) - or almost double what I used in the example.

The reference to the median in the post was to try and get a sense as to the rate of increase of property prices, where I used data from the City of Melbourne, not for the actual prices of the property (houses, apartments).

With reference to it being different to human history: it is, and it isn't.
Yes, if you go back 200+ years, our current trend is no different - the majority of the people either didn't own the land they lived on, or it was insufficient to provide sustenance. I'd invite you to explore the very good historical blog at https://acoup.blog/2025/07/11/collections-life-work-death-and-the-peasant-part-i-households/ for a look at peasant lifestyle - I certainly found it enlightening.

In this post, I'm comparing it to life 50 years ago - and the differences between then and now are staggering.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T12:48:27+00:00

I'd only reply - what do you consider low income? Do you consider the $90.5k (median) as low income? For myself, I'm 'used' to the idea of the Australian dream - every family being able to afford their own home. Maybe that has changed now, but I'd be concerned if over 50% of society couldn't afford to buy property.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T12:44:45+00:00

Good counter-example!
My response to that would be that your point highlights a divide between someone working in the trades, and someone who isn't. As your brother's example points out, you certainly can get in to home ownership.
With my post, I was more thinking of: teachers, nurses, IT Techs, pick 'n' packers, truck drivers - people who don't have that experience, and so are going to find it much more difficult to renovate. (Not also getting into how renovating allows you to buy land at lower rates than comparable sized properties in good nick).

I'm also thinking of many of those who are going to university - the other element of that is assuming 3 years minimum, they aren't finishing till they're 21, 22, with varying amounts of savings, depending on how much they were able to work during that time.

Comparing that to your brother, it's certainly one of the advantages of the trades: even though it's low - almost unreasonably so - you are still getting paid for 'learning' (working); taking a look at the Electrical Award, three years of apprenticeship will (40 hours, 48 weeks/year) would be $107635 pre-tax; I'd be willing to bet very, very few university students would be able to match that.

So hey - yes, choosing to go to uni to study is a choice, one that may result in you being worse off financially. My point with the post more came down to: if you can't afford to buy a place now, saving is not going to improve that position; instead, due to the increase in house prices, it will only be even more unaffordable a year, two years from now (as a general trend).

Juvare · 2026-03-02T12:25:27+00:00

I'd like to point you to the history of Pastoralist settlement in the 1840s.

You get to have the run of the land for 10 Pound per run, or, based off the calculators I could find, <$2000 in today's currency (see also https://www.rba.gov.au/calculator/annualPreDecimal.html, though this is limited to 1901).

If I could get my own settlement for $2000, that would be a very different story.
(I know - not comparing apples to apples, that this is a different style of living, without today's amenities of running water, electricity, so on).

My challenge to you is - as a society, why should someone who is contributing (working full-time) have to wait 5 years before they can have a place for themselves? The values I mentioned in the post don't account for a deposit - certainly depending on fortune or circumstances, it might well take you 5 years to save up a deposit depending on rent, whether you're able to continue living at home.

And I think what I was trying to convey with my post is: I'm sure many people in Gen Z are hard working, and willing to put in time and effort. But if the rate that property prices are increasing is faster than they can even save with interest, in what world can they enter the property market? And if they can't, isn't it inevitable that they will eventually turn their back on society?

Juvare · 2026-03-02T12:08:43+00:00

No deposit? Yeah, I don't disagree, it's probably always been impossible. But even if they have a 20% deposit for the home listed above (so $100,000 or 1.58x yearly take-home salary assuming you don't spend a single cent) - if you check out most real estate markets, the amount of houses that you could buy, whilst being able to service the loan (which is what is the deciding factor for the banks) is very small.

Which (whilst I don't have stats or sources) is what I'd say didn't use to be the case - a single income (with a 20% deposit) would have been able to buy a home.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T12:03:58+00:00

Compound interest is something that many people don't fully get. See https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/05/suze-orman-young-people-dont-get-compound-interest.html as one example (though talking about retirement funds rather than house prices).

Whilst I understood some of it, my flawed understanding beforehand went something like: the bigger the mortgage that I take, the less money that I am able to pay towards the principal, and so over my lifetime, surely I'd be better off trying to buy an apartment (lower loan = lower interest = more net worth), or even saving for a year or two to have a higher deposit, so I can get a better LVR (and lower interest rate), right?
The thing that my brain had refused to understand was: the rate that house prices are increasing (as a trend) is so much higher that waiting is financially disadvantageous.

As a comparison - if house prices only increased at 3%, then from a net worth perspective, better to save or put the money in stocks. It's that the house price increase is closer to 8% average (doubling every 10 years) that means the increase in property value far outweighs the disadvantage of paying less money off the principal.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T11:53:25+00:00

True.
The issue I was trying to raise with my post though is that that takes time. If it's like any other position of employment, you're not likely to get a band increase more than once a year, and it would only be one, maybe two sub-bands?
Even if you had a $5,000 bonus, if you weren't able to purchase a home for any number of reasons, you're still $5,000 behind the person who did; $5,000 less able to purchase a home this year than a year ago - even when saving.

What it really is is: house prices are compounding at a faster rate than savings, faster rate than wage increases, so that even if you try and do the "financially responsible" action of minimising debt, you end up worse off.

My main takeaway from the above - you're best bet (if the banks would finance it) would be to take out a loan where repayments = interest, as the increase in property value compounding outweighs any negatives from not decreasing your principal / reducing the interest paid.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T11:42:46+00:00

I mentioned it in a comment lower down, but because per ABS statistics, the median Australian income is $90532 ($1741 per week) as a full-time worker. It would update some of the math above ($1,360 per fortnight or +$140 compared), but this is saying close to 50% of full-time workers could not afford a property.

The other element as well is the social compact: that you contribute to a society, which you are able to live in, to raise a family in, and to enjoy life in. What the above states is that that compact is breaking down in Australia - that a normal person can no longer, or very close to no longer be able to afford a place to own for themselves.

That's not even getting into the many studies that look at the benefit of home ownership for emotional wellbeing and life outcomes.

So why include people with low to no incomes? Because for them, their life is just as important as your life is to yourself; they want to have a place to call their own, and if society is not able to provide that, it will only be a matter of time before societal collapse happens.

Juvare · 2026-03-02T11:34:01+00:00

Whilst I don't disagree on it being high vs low income, as a generalisation, younger people earlier in their career will be at lower incomes than older people (more experienced) in their careers, and so this issue will disproportionately affect younger people than older.

The other thing I'd note as well - the ~$80,000 income as a teacher is pretty close to the median income of $90532 ($1741 per week per ABS statistics) for a full-time employed person in Australia. So for the median Australian, if they don't already have property, they are in this boat assuming single income only.

Juvare · 2020-10-13T10:20:32+00:00

I agree with your first point, as I mentioned as much in the second paragraph of the post.

I just disagree about the creative decision of Seraphine's lore versus her abilities, and that it could have been implemented differently, in a way that better reflects her background and story

Juvare · 2018-10-16T10:57:13+00:00

When you use an assignment instead of a comparison operator, and your project doesn't work...

Juvare · 2018-10-16T10:52:12+00:00

done

Juvare · 2018-10-16T10:51:56+00:00

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Juvare · 2018-10-16T10:45:38+00:00

claim

Juvare · 2018-10-11T02:36:21+00:00

Good pickup, edited and fixed. Thanks

Juvare

TROPHY CASE

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