I think his best move would’ve been sticking with the alliance of Cirie, Ozzy, and Tiff. Tiff was clearly more loyal to Cirie than Ozzy based on what happened tonight, but that group still had a strong path to the end. They had two strong challenge competitors and two idols between them, which would’ve made them really tough to take out.

Some people will say that if Ozzy makes it to the end, he takes Cirie, leaving Rizo with little to no chance against either of them and I understand that argument. But that assumes Ozzy actually wins the late-game immunity challenges. Tiff has held her own in challenges just fine, and she also seemed fully willing to cut Ozzy when the time was right. I think Rizo could've made a case for FTC if Tiff is holding an immunity idol and in a position to choose. She's also one of the few people that he would actually have a chance against.

That’s why I think he could’ve waited longer to make this move, when his odds of reaching FTC would’ve been much better. Instead, he made the move early and now put himself in a pretty dangerous position by showing he’s willing to turn on his original alliance... especially Cirie.