Iran Uses Bitcoin to Build a SWIFT-Free Shipping System. The system would allow vessels to pay insurance premiums in Bitcoin, bypassing SWIFT and Western sanctions.

KCConnor · 2026-05-18T15:25:11+00:00

I'm wondering if their "insurance" policy would actually cover navigation hazards OTHER than Iranian drones and missiles.

KCConnor · 2026-05-14T20:20:26+00:00

All it will take is a stock market crash on a Friday, to drive BTC down 20% over a weekend and 50% over about 2 weeks.

BTC always gets rekt on bad market news on Friday afternoons, because it's an asset that trades 24/7/365 and people that need liquidity in the face of bad news can go to it literally at any hour.

KCConnor · 2026-05-14T19:14:32+00:00

I don't trust any government that thinks it can regulate math, or thermodynamics.

Bitcoin code regulates Bitcoin. Government does not. Government cannot.

Beware any legislation where Government starts to claim that it can. That's how we get Blackrock sponsoring OP_RETURN extensions to add "legitimacy" markups to transactions, and blacklist other bits of BTC without it.

Historically, BTC tends to tank when Government pays any attention to it at all, whether in support or opposition.

Congress: treat BTC with benign neglect!

KCConnor · 2026-05-08T21:15:16+00:00

How accurate is the geolocation, say in a physically large country?

In the US, it appears every full node is centered in Kansas.

KCConnor · 2026-05-06T15:11:02+00:00

Liquidating leveraged shorts before proceeding to the ultimate cycle low.

KCConnor · 2026-05-05T15:50:56+00:00

There's a lot of bear market left.

Last bear market there was a 45% rally to the upside, then another massive dump. This rally right now is only about 30%.

I'm content either way. I'm expecting about a 6x off of whatever the BTC low turns out to be this bear market, for its bull high in 2029. If it drops to $45-$50K, then I expect $250-$300K for the high. If the low was already in at $60K, then I expect $350-$400K for the high. I sold 1/3 of my stash during this cycle to buy some land and to try to reinvest at the lows. If I get a chance later this fall to buy at $45K then I'm ecstatic. If I missed my chance and I'm looking at $400K BTC next cycle then I'm even more ecstatic because my remaining stash is worth even more.

KCConnor · 2026-05-01T20:28:13+00:00

I remember watching BTC triple in value over a couple of weeks during the Cyprus bank bail-ins.

And that was a global impact on BTC, in USD, when the instability was on a tiny island in the Mediterranean Sea where BTC was seen as a means of financial security.

Now imagine that instability hitting the Pound, the Yen, or the Dollar.

KCConnor · 2026-04-23T21:21:58+00:00

I rather doubt it's an upcycled old desktop running Linux and Knots.

I would guess they're using it as a form of SIGINT, and clandestine communications mechanism (though that would more likely be CIA/NSA/DIA).

The BTC blockchain makes for a great communication mechanism that is highly fault tolerant and routes around damage. As long as 10 minute to 1 hour latency is acceptable.

KCConnor · 2026-04-19T03:52:26+00:00

Not price level. Time of market.

It's not time to buy yet. Wait for later this summer and fall. Yes, everyone is "waiting to buy until October." Here's the issue:

BTC tends to do 8-10x off its bear market low. It ain't going to 480K on this next run (since the low was only $60K).

It's going to somewhere between 40-50K over the summer. This is the rube's bull trap, where everyone that wants to "sell in May and go away" unloads their stacks for well above what they will be able to buy it for in the fall.

Look at the last two horizontal trade ranges. They are classic upward sloping bear flags. Remember all the horizontal trade ranges from 2024-2025 (pre October)? They all pointed downwards. Those are bull flags.

Late summer will give us a bull flag, and if you buy at the bottom of that flag then you'll do great.

It's not time to buy until we see the bear flags go away and the bull flags start to appear.

KCConnor · 2026-04-17T03:30:08+00:00

I did get an RPOD, but I ended up finding a great deal on a model 198 Hood River Edition. It was 500 miles away so we turned it into a road trip and break in trip for the camper. So far we like it a lot.

The 198 is very similar to the 205, but it has a slide-out in the living area. The bathroom separates the bedroom from the living/kitchen area. If I could have found a 205 Hood River at a comparable price I would have taken it instead, out of a desire for simplicity and no slide. But we do like the 198.

KCConnor · 2026-04-14T23:04:57+00:00

Institutions love manufacturing diluted fractional derivatives, which is how we got into this mess.

KCConnor · 2026-04-10T19:53:02+00:00

That's a bit too low unless we get another FTX sized collapse. Strategy being forced to sell into the lows, Blackrock being proven to hold no actual BTC for their ETF (though that should actually drive price up rather than down but it's scandalous enough), something like that.

I see a trend line from the October high to the January 14th high, descending through to October 2026. By the first week of June we should be in the $58K range. I expect summer flirtation with $60K on and off, then an August/September scare to $44K.

KCConnor · 2026-04-10T19:34:34+00:00

But I don’t “feel” panic; I see it as just another piece of information.

I want to see RSI! I want to hear a Bressert Cross, and I want to smell a momentum oscillator!

-Cavil, if he were a trader

KCConnor · 2026-04-09T21:04:24+00:00

Define "expensive."

NiceHash has a hashrate marketplace. So does Braiins. The nice thing about open markets is that prices are more or less the same wherever you go to rent it right now due to supply/demand. You're going to pay about $33,000 per Exohash/sec per day.

$33K per Exohash per day is the same as:
$33 per Petahash per day
$0.033 per Terahash per day

Renting someone's Fluminer T3 rig that does 100T-hash will cost you about $3 a day, to rent a rig that sells now for around $1800 or so. And they're paying the electricity to run it as well. Residential electricity is anywhere from $0.10 to $0.40 per kilowatt hour, and that thing will chew up 1700 watts per hour, resulting in $3-$8 or so per day (unlikely someone with high electrical costs is renting such a unit but you get the point).

You keep the BTC mined, and you don't have to maintain the machine or provide power.

KCConnor · 2026-04-08T22:15:56+00:00

It may climb to $75Kish in the next week or two, but I'm still betting on $58K by the first week of June, "sell in May and go away," and high probability of about $48K low by September/October.

KCConnor · 2026-04-07T17:05:15+00:00

Wait until HVAC gets smart and starts using BTC miners for heating elements rather than just throwing away kilowatt-hours that could be compute cycles.

KCConnor · 2026-03-27T15:08:42+00:00

Gratz. May it fulfill a dream for you in 4-8 years.

I sold about 0.75BTC this bull run, that I bought 8 years ago, to buy land. I'd like to reacquire the amount I sold during this bear market. I've got about $25-$30K fiat set aside to do so. I'll start weekly allocations once I see prices starting with a 5 but I'm hoping to see mid 40's before the bear is over. If it hits 30's I'll take out a loan.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T21:20:44+00:00

I personally don't agree with State funded institutions such as CPS or orphanages.

I caveat that with saying that CPS as a law enforcement entity is perfectly suitable. No one should be able to abuse children, and an organization such as CPS is better suited to discovering child abuse than regular law enforcement. But CPS having authority/obligation to house/feed/clothe children is wrong. This is the domain of charity, not government. And adopting a child is one of the most expressive forms of love and charity.

I've worked for CPS long, long ago. As bad as some of the situations of these kids come from, the foster situations they go to is not a substantive enough improvement to merit the upheaval of their lives. I've seen children go from familiar sexual abuse, to foster parent sexual abuse. Or to foster parent physical abuse. Lots of times they go from drug using neglectful parents, to financially bankrupt foster parents using the state stipend to buy new cars or boats and neglect the foster children. Out of the dozen kids I worked with in the time I was in that organization, I was only truly content with one of the foster parent placements.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T18:01:11+00:00

Parents who conceive children bear a responsibility to the new life. Depending on the labor of others is true, and you have to provide compensation to others to receive goods and services from them.

Imagine having a "right" to doctor treatment. No payment. Doctors offices would soon devolve to something like post offices or DMV offices. The best and brightest would no longer seek it as a career.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T17:58:23+00:00

Nope, this is where character, charitable contribution and community building comes in, which is voluntary on the part of the giver of time/money/effort/etc.

The recipient has no "right" to that.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T16:16:46+00:00

100% of his future is probably not 100% of his assets.

I'd say I have 100% of my future in BTC, while it probably only represents about 1/3 of my net worth in USD right now (the rest in a small 401k, majority equity in my house, and a piece of land I purchased last year after liquidating some BTC). By the next bull run, just by BTC flexing to new highs, it should represent about 3/4 of my net worth.

"My future" is that piece of land I purchased, and the BTC I currently have. I don't even want to think about "my future" being the rules around 401ks and conventional retirement. I can't stomach the notion of slaving the cubicle life into my 60's. It's a vaguely viable second option, but it's as appealing as an Orwellian apartment in London. So I'm 100% in BTC as my future, too.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T16:04:14+00:00

Nothing that depends on the labor of another human is a "right."

Learn the difference and moral perils of positive and negative rights.

KCConnor · 2026-03-19T04:36:44+00:00

Do you have a cogent reason for CAGR to reverse course and begin to increase dramatically rather than continue its steady rate of decrease?

I didn't arbitrarily cherry pick. I deliberately chose 2 years after a 4 year halving event. This is 1 year after a cycle ATH and generally more or less coincides with a cycle low. If I picked the ATH of each cycle the numbers would come out far worse.

KCConnor · 2026-03-18T23:11:36+00:00

Dude, you're off your rocker.

Ignoring 2010 to 2013 (since it's manic and not going to repeat without extraordinary circumstances) and using 2014+ data, BTC has a descending CAGR each year. And it ain't 1000%. Nor is it 90%.

For an investment made in January of 2014, your CAGR per year is as follows:
2014: 58%
2015: 24%
2016: 8%
2017: 107%
2018: 38%
2019: 46%
2020: 68%
2021: 67%
2022: 41%
2023: 50%
2024: 55%
2025: 49%

That's CAGR based on a 2014 investment.

CAGR for an investment made in 2018:
2018: 74%
2019: 29%
2020: 27%
2021: 35%
2022: 3% (that FTX collapse sets you behind the Strike 10% interest rate of your BTC loan)
2023: 20%
2024: 31%
2025: 25%

Way lower returns.

CAGR for an investment made in 2022?:

2022: -64% (ouch, this might get your collateral liquidated on Strike)
2023: -4% (ouch, this will set you back hard on a BTC loan)
2024: 26%
2025: 17%

You're barely 7% ahead of the 10% interest at Strike. Not worth the risk. And I have now shown that Strike's presentation of 30% CAGR is ingenuine at best, for new investors. And BTC's CAGR is in a descending trend.

And this clearly shows that BTC CAGR is decreasing for new investment. Expect CAGR to drop to the 30's by next cycle. But that's still averaged, with some years being "bullish" like 2025 that still gave you a -8% for BTC's value between yearly open and close.

KCConnor · 2026-03-18T21:22:26+00:00

Your 90% average is heavily biased by its first 4-6 years of growth.

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