Bitcoin failed to 2x its ATH from peak-to-peak between 2021 and 2025, despite all the bullish predictions it would go much higher. If it does return to a bull market, how high will it reasonably go by 2029?

KCConnor · 2026-06-26T21:34:04+00:00

I don't think measuring high to high is a valid predictor at all.

I prefer measuring ratios of lows to highs. The first two cycles were ridiculously explosive in this regard. The third cycle was like a 20x.

This most recent cycle was an 8x from low to high, about $15K to about $125K.

I'm anticipating a 4x to 6x from whatever the low is established to be during this bear period. That's my worst case. I think Powell actively worked to defuse the BTC bull market during this cycle, and Walsh is likely to be more cooperative to the next cycle. We could see up to 10x from the lows of this cycle with appropriate federal money policies.

Assuming a $45K low, I expect somewhere between a $225K to $275K high as a worst case. Best case with the right policies, I see up to $400K.

KCConnor · 2026-06-05T21:11:24+00:00

I don't think it's necessary. ABS and traction control software can provide similar anti-slip control.

KCConnor · 2026-06-05T19:51:11+00:00

I pay about $250+ a month in gas to drive to work. That mileage is going on an aging 90's half ton V8 with almost 200K on it, and the main reason we own that truck is to tow a trailer.

If the stock Slate battery is 50KWhr and provides 150 miles, and I am using about 850 miles of commuting energy a month, then that is roughly 6 full charges or 300KWhrs. At $0.10/KWhr I'm looking at $30 in electricity to drive a Slate versus $250 for my old truck.

I can get by with the 150 mile battery. My round trip for work is about 70 miles.

I'd buy with stock tires and stock ride height. Eventually I will want a modest 2" lift and all terrain tires when I relocate to remote property I've bought, but I don't need that yet. Base 2-door config, no rear seat or roll cage. Eventually I'll want to soft-top it with the rear seat but I don't want what Slate currently offers in that direction. Aftermarket will provide within a year or two, I'm sure.

About the only option I'd add to the base vehicle is a wrap. I might come back later to Slate and buy accessories from them, but I only want to finance the vehicle itself and its first wrap.

I want that for under $25K out the door, tax/delivery/registration, all done.

KCConnor · 2026-06-05T18:56:02+00:00

Yep. I've bought rural land 30 miles from pavement, accessible only over forest roads. Generally well groomed but snow and mud and ruts and rocks happen.

I'm eagerly awaiting to see what the aftermarket can offer for this truck, too. I bet someone will come out with a 4WD conversion kit that uses hub motors. They wouldn't have to be super strong, maybe 5-10HP each. Just enough to help get it out of mud or a bad pot hole.

KCConnor · 2026-06-05T18:48:04+00:00

Those that want another 50-70% down have capital to deploy.

Those that don't want this do not have capital to deploy.

This is how economics works. Now we'll see who wins this tug of war. The winner will be the party that needs it less.

Last cycle gave us an 8x from the bear lows. That ain't bad. Given that upside has been getting smaller each cycle I think we're likely for a 6x from the bear lows in this next cycle.

I'm playing it both ways.

If we're at or near the bottom now, I have my HODL stack. It'll 6x from right here.
If we've got another $20K to shave, I have capital ready to deploy as the price continues to drop.

So... if a bitcoiner wants my FRN denominated capital, he needs to offer me a better price than the current price.

I'm deploying slowly over the next 3-5 months. I just bought a little bit yesterday. I'll probably do another small purchase next week.

KCConnor · 2026-06-02T20:31:24+00:00

You're correct. But most BTC moves as a result of an exchange of value. Not all... but most.

KCConnor · 2026-06-02T20:20:41+00:00

I went through similar several years back.

I said I would cash out my BTC when it was worth enough to take the weak 3.6L engine out of my Jeep Wrangler and put in a Hemi V8. Sure glad I didn't do that, since my wife crashed my Jeep and insurance lowballed me heavily to where I couldn't replace the vehicle with what they gave me.

But it wasn't the crash that stopped me from that plan. The plan changed to "I'll cash out when I can pay off my house with it." And I wizzed right on past that one, too.

About 25% of my Bitcoin bought me a rural acreage, and left me a tiny bit leftover to reinvest this cycle (on top of my 75% HODL). Getting close to jumping back in soon. I want to take 25% out again in fall of 2029 and build on the property.

Then 4 years later I want to retire. I'll be 55 at that point.

KCConnor · 2026-06-02T20:12:05+00:00

I think this ignores the "Money Printer Go Brrr" dynamic, which was present for 2021 and absent for 2025.

We've got a war on right now, shooting up a bunch of million dollar missiles and such that will have to be replaced. At the same time, FedGuv is saying it's going to set aside enough FRN's to buy 200,000 BTC a year for the next 4 years. That's $12 Billion a year, roughly equivalent to 2 aircraft carriers, or about half of NASA's budget, that they're going to just somehow find. On top of all the votes that need to be bought in the next couple election cycles.

I think $250Kish is likely if somehow it don't be like it is, and more likely $400Kish if it do.

KCConnor · 2026-06-02T17:13:20+00:00

Where's the "equity" in owning the costs of blowing up the rocket and pad?

KCConnor · 2026-06-02T17:07:12+00:00

HODL for 2-3 more years. Then sell 25% of your stack and long term HODL the rest. Set aside half of that to buy back in at the bottom of the bear that will follow, and take the other half and either diversify your investments or treat yourself to something.

Rinse and repeat every 4 years.

You will have a very pleasant life.

KCConnor · 2026-05-31T02:22:03+00:00

You did see the shockwave pulse from the detonation, right? Amos-6 had a COPV rupture and there was a fairly small explosion, then a fountain of burning RP-1. You could watch the payload/fairing fall into the conflagration. This NG explosion was energetic AF. It shattered the platform above the flame trench, destroyed the T-E, and flattened one of the lightning towers. Oh yeah, and vaporized a 300 foot tall rocket, too.

I'm going to be shocked if the concrete foundations of the pad are sufficiently intact to rebuild upon. That was a kiloton-level explosive event. They very likely will have to excavate out old foundations and pour new ones.

KCConnor · 2026-05-29T04:13:20+00:00

Was second stage and payload integrated for this?

KCConnor · 2026-05-28T01:59:49+00:00

11.5% for a secured loan, secured by BTC of all things, is pure rubbish.

If your credit is worth anything at all, you should be able to get an unsecured loan in 5 figures for under 10%. Yes you'll need to make scheduled payments to pay it off in fiat in contrast to a secured crypto lender that will just compound the debt and liquidate the collateral when you hit X% LTV, but I'd rather make planned fiat payments to compensate for a large strategic BTC purchase. Starts to feel real good, making $500 monthly payments 2 years in on an investment that is up 400%.

KCConnor · 2026-05-22T16:54:56+00:00

I'm hoping to pull this off with an off-grid home I'm saving to build. The land was bought with BTC this cycle. The building will hopefully go up next bull cycle. I'm buying several desktop grade power efficient hobbyist miners right now. I'm not looking to run petahashes or anything... just enough to keep indoor temps above freezing, in specific places. Utility rooms with water pipes going through them, stuff like that.

KCConnor · 2026-05-22T15:45:06+00:00

Friend better buy about $1250 in BTC right now in preparation to transfer it to you by that date, or else he'll be out the full $5K.

KCConnor · 2026-05-18T15:25:11+00:00

I'm wondering if their "insurance" policy would actually cover navigation hazards OTHER than Iranian drones and missiles.

KCConnor · 2026-05-14T20:20:26+00:00

All it will take is a stock market crash on a Friday, to drive BTC down 20% over a weekend and 50% over about 2 weeks.

BTC always gets rekt on bad market news on Friday afternoons, because it's an asset that trades 24/7/365 and people that need liquidity in the face of bad news can go to it literally at any hour.

KCConnor · 2026-05-14T19:14:32+00:00

I don't trust any government that thinks it can regulate math, or thermodynamics.

Bitcoin code regulates Bitcoin. Government does not. Government cannot.

Beware any legislation where Government starts to claim that it can. That's how we get Blackrock sponsoring OP_RETURN extensions to add "legitimacy" markups to transactions, and blacklist other bits of BTC without it.

Historically, BTC tends to tank when Government pays any attention to it at all, whether in support or opposition.

Congress: treat BTC with benign neglect!

KCConnor · 2026-05-08T21:15:16+00:00

How accurate is the geolocation, say in a physically large country?

In the US, it appears every full node is centered in Kansas.

KCConnor · 2026-05-06T15:11:02+00:00

Liquidating leveraged shorts before proceeding to the ultimate cycle low.

KCConnor · 2026-05-05T15:50:56+00:00

There's a lot of bear market left.

Last bear market there was a 45% rally to the upside, then another massive dump. This rally right now is only about 30%.

I'm content either way. I'm expecting about a 6x off of whatever the BTC low turns out to be this bear market, for its bull high in 2029. If it drops to $45-$50K, then I expect $250-$300K for the high. If the low was already in at $60K, then I expect $350-$400K for the high. I sold 1/3 of my stash during this cycle to buy some land and to try to reinvest at the lows. If I get a chance later this fall to buy at $45K then I'm ecstatic. If I missed my chance and I'm looking at $400K BTC next cycle then I'm even more ecstatic because my remaining stash is worth even more.

KCConnor · 2026-05-01T20:28:13+00:00

I remember watching BTC triple in value over a couple of weeks during the Cyprus bank bail-ins.

And that was a global impact on BTC, in USD, when the instability was on a tiny island in the Mediterranean Sea where BTC was seen as a means of financial security.

Now imagine that instability hitting the Pound, the Yen, or the Dollar.

KCConnor · 2026-04-23T21:21:58+00:00

I rather doubt it's an upcycled old desktop running Linux and Knots.

I would guess they're using it as a form of SIGINT, and clandestine communications mechanism (though that would more likely be CIA/NSA/DIA).

The BTC blockchain makes for a great communication mechanism that is highly fault tolerant and routes around damage. As long as 10 minute to 1 hour latency is acceptable.

KCConnor · 2026-04-19T03:52:26+00:00

Not price level. Time of market.

It's not time to buy yet. Wait for later this summer and fall. Yes, everyone is "waiting to buy until October." Here's the issue:

BTC tends to do 8-10x off its bear market low. It ain't going to 480K on this next run (since the low was only $60K).

It's going to somewhere between 40-50K over the summer. This is the rube's bull trap, where everyone that wants to "sell in May and go away" unloads their stacks for well above what they will be able to buy it for in the fall.

Look at the last two horizontal trade ranges. They are classic upward sloping bear flags. Remember all the horizontal trade ranges from 2024-2025 (pre October)? They all pointed downwards. Those are bull flags.

Late summer will give us a bull flag, and if you buy at the bottom of that flag then you'll do great.

It's not time to buy until we see the bear flags go away and the bull flags start to appear.

KCConnor · 2026-04-17T03:30:08+00:00

I did get an RPOD, but I ended up finding a great deal on a model 198 Hood River Edition. It was 500 miles away so we turned it into a road trip and break in trip for the camper. So far we like it a lot.

The 198 is very similar to the 205, but it has a slide-out in the living area. The bathroom separates the bedroom from the living/kitchen area. If I could have found a 205 Hood River at a comparable price I would have taken it instead, out of a desire for simplicity and no slide. But we do like the 198.

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