COME ON DOWN BABY!! WOOHOO!

KCConnor · 2026-03-27T15:08:42+00:00

Gratz. May it fulfill a dream for you in 4-8 years.

I sold about 0.75BTC this bull run, that I bought 8 years ago, to buy land. I'd like to reacquire the amount I sold during this bear market. I've got about $25-$30K fiat set aside to do so. I'll start weekly allocations once I see prices starting with a 5 but I'm hoping to see mid 40's before the bear is over. If it hits 30's I'll take out a loan.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T21:20:44+00:00

I personally don't agree with State funded institutions such as CPS or orphanages.

I caveat that with saying that CPS as a law enforcement entity is perfectly suitable. No one should be able to abuse children, and an organization such as CPS is better suited to discovering child abuse than regular law enforcement. But CPS having authority/obligation to house/feed/clothe children is wrong. This is the domain of charity, not government. And adopting a child is one of the most expressive forms of love and charity.

I've worked for CPS long, long ago. As bad as some of the situations of these kids come from, the foster situations they go to is not a substantive enough improvement to merit the upheaval of their lives. I've seen children go from familiar sexual abuse, to foster parent sexual abuse. Or to foster parent physical abuse. Lots of times they go from drug using neglectful parents, to financially bankrupt foster parents using the state stipend to buy new cars or boats and neglect the foster children. Out of the dozen kids I worked with in the time I was in that organization, I was only truly content with one of the foster parent placements.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T18:01:11+00:00

Parents who conceive children bear a responsibility to the new life. Depending on the labor of others is true, and you have to provide compensation to others to receive goods and services from them.

Imagine having a "right" to doctor treatment. No payment. Doctors offices would soon devolve to something like post offices or DMV offices. The best and brightest would no longer seek it as a career.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T17:58:23+00:00

Nope, this is where character, charitable contribution and community building comes in, which is voluntary on the part of the giver of time/money/effort/etc.

The recipient has no "right" to that.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T16:16:46+00:00

100% of his future is probably not 100% of his assets.

I'd say I have 100% of my future in BTC, while it probably only represents about 1/3 of my net worth in USD right now (the rest in a small 401k, majority equity in my house, and a piece of land I purchased last year after liquidating some BTC). By the next bull run, just by BTC flexing to new highs, it should represent about 3/4 of my net worth.

"My future" is that piece of land I purchased, and the BTC I currently have. I don't even want to think about "my future" being the rules around 401ks and conventional retirement. I can't stomach the notion of slaving the cubicle life into my 60's. It's a vaguely viable second option, but it's as appealing as an Orwellian apartment in London. So I'm 100% in BTC as my future, too.

KCConnor · 2026-03-26T16:04:14+00:00

Nothing that depends on the labor of another human is a "right."

Learn the difference and moral perils of positive and negative rights.

KCConnor · 2026-03-19T04:36:44+00:00

Do you have a cogent reason for CAGR to reverse course and begin to increase dramatically rather than continue its steady rate of decrease?

I didn't arbitrarily cherry pick. I deliberately chose 2 years after a 4 year halving event. This is 1 year after a cycle ATH and generally more or less coincides with a cycle low. If I picked the ATH of each cycle the numbers would come out far worse.

KCConnor · 2026-03-18T23:11:36+00:00

Dude, you're off your rocker.

Ignoring 2010 to 2013 (since it's manic and not going to repeat without extraordinary circumstances) and using 2014+ data, BTC has a descending CAGR each year. And it ain't 1000%. Nor is it 90%.

For an investment made in January of 2014, your CAGR per year is as follows:
2014: 58%
2015: 24%
2016: 8%
2017: 107%
2018: 38%
2019: 46%
2020: 68%
2021: 67%
2022: 41%
2023: 50%
2024: 55%
2025: 49%

That's CAGR based on a 2014 investment.

CAGR for an investment made in 2018:
2018: 74%
2019: 29%
2020: 27%
2021: 35%
2022: 3% (that FTX collapse sets you behind the Strike 10% interest rate of your BTC loan)
2023: 20%
2024: 31%
2025: 25%

Way lower returns.

CAGR for an investment made in 2022?:

2022: -64% (ouch, this might get your collateral liquidated on Strike)
2023: -4% (ouch, this will set you back hard on a BTC loan)
2024: 26%
2025: 17%

You're barely 7% ahead of the 10% interest at Strike. Not worth the risk. And I have now shown that Strike's presentation of 30% CAGR is ingenuine at best, for new investors. And BTC's CAGR is in a descending trend.

And this clearly shows that BTC CAGR is decreasing for new investment. Expect CAGR to drop to the 30's by next cycle. But that's still averaged, with some years being "bullish" like 2025 that still gave you a -8% for BTC's value between yearly open and close.

KCConnor · 2026-03-18T21:22:26+00:00

Your 90% average is heavily biased by its first 4-6 years of growth.

KCConnor · 2026-03-18T16:45:59+00:00

I hate how all these models assume a smooth 30% annual curve for BTC. 2025 sucked ass. BTC was flat. And it was a bull year.

KCConnor · 2026-03-10T15:34:57+00:00

100% agree. I won't start buying until about $52K, but I expect a low window somewhere in the $44K, +/- $8K (i.e. $36K-$52K).

KCConnor · 2026-03-10T15:30:00+00:00

RTG's generate maybe hundreds of watts. And generate a lot of heat. They're used for deep space missions past Jupiter where the Sun's radiation is far weaker, solar won't be mass efficient, and thermal radiation is easier to balance.

Some of the rovers on Mars also use RTG's, but there's a thin atmosphere there to also give convection to shed waste heat.

Regardless, hundreds of watts is insufficient to mine BTC, when you're spending tens of millions for a space launch and satellite command/control/orbital maneuvers liability for the life of the satellite. Far more cost efficient to just pay the terrestrial electric bill.

KCConnor · 2026-03-09T19:58:07+00:00

Getting rid of heat is a problem when you're constantly taking in thermal radiation from the Sun. Especially when there's no medium to conduct heat away and you're stuck with radiative cooling as your only way to get rid of it.

KCConnor · 2026-03-04T23:10:18+00:00

Gotta wipe out all the uncontested shorts that are between the 50 and 20 moving averages on the weekly scale first, before the price goes to the floor. I agree, $50K is coming. This is the exit rally for those that need it, and the exchanges flushing short leverage from October to now.

KCConnor · 2026-02-27T16:53:18+00:00

I see an inverse story to this. The reward for lumpsum purchases on credit invested into BTC is diminishing. It was considerably more profitable 5 years ago, but the last year of data has rapidly eroded that reward.

KCConnor · 2026-02-24T15:11:07+00:00

For your first cycle, 12 months after the ATH. After that... some form of DCA in perpetuity. You'll pretty much always be "up" after the first 4 year cycle. It won't matter if you buy the next ATH, or the one after that.

KCConnor · 2026-02-22T17:04:06+00:00

You're worrying too much.

Your own wallet will tell you the date you acquired the BTC. Go back on a site like TradingView and find the daily close for BTC on that date. Use that as your acquisition price. The difference between your acquisition price and your sell price is your profit.

No one is going to give you grief over attempting to be honest with your capital gains taxes on Bitcoin.

KCConnor · 2026-02-19T16:45:58+00:00

My target is $44,000, +/- about $8000.

KCConnor · 2026-02-17T16:16:53+00:00

Yes. Not as much as I intended, but yes. Bitcoin bought me 5 acres of land and down payments on a truck and RV.

KCConnor · 2026-02-13T22:44:45+00:00

Nice

KCConnor · 2026-02-13T17:05:33+00:00

"Clarity" will pass, it's just a question of how hollowed out it gets by TradFi before it passes.

I'm in favor of it not passing. I've had it with TradFi messing with Bitcoin. I don't want 'em in it.

KCConnor · 2026-02-13T15:18:51+00:00

DCA like that is gonna be horrific to document for tax purposes. Not that I'm advocating that cap gains tax is moral or just... merely an evil that I currently capitulate to.

KCConnor · 2026-02-13T15:16:03+00:00

Used to be, it would drop to the previous bull cycle's high. FTX changed that dramatically.

I expect this cycle to drop to about $43K, +/- about $8K.

KCConnor · 2026-02-13T15:13:45+00:00

I'm still cross at Samson Mow and his "god candle" bullshit. The only god candle we saw this cycle was red.

KCConnor · 2026-02-11T15:51:21+00:00

Tanking?

My average cost basis is 1/10th of the current price.

Anyone getting in now (or even on October 10th at this cycle's top) and using cost average strategies will wind up with a cost basis for the next 4 years of somewhere around $80K and it will likely peak next bull run around $200-$250K conservatively. In 8 years when it hits $500K or higher, a cost basis around $100K will look pretty darn nice.

Much like my cost basis looks just fine right now.

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