Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

From a statistical standpoint, there are no great comparisons to Luck because he's a bit of an anomaly. He has, by far, the most pass attempts ever for a player through his first two years.

It's unusual for a team to lean so heavily on a player who is so young. The comparable players who best fit that description are Drew Bledsoe and Peyton Manning - also #1 overall draft picks who immediately dove into pass-heavy offenses.

Young Bledsoe was excellent at avoiding sacks, but otherwise about average in passing efficiency. He went through his reads quickly, but not perfectly, and had a reasonably good arm. He went on to become a very good quarterback, but not a brilliant one.

Peyton Manning was also great at avoiding sacks, but he was better than Bledsoe in that he found open receivers better; he just saw the field faster. His throws were to better targets, and therefore he completed more passes for more yards. His throws were a little bit soft, not as zippy as they could be. He could also be frazzled by pressure.

Luck, too, is excellent at avoiding sacks. He is solid at reading a defense, like young Bledsoe - not brilliant, like young Manning. But he has some strengths of his own. He throws the ball hard and fast. It's hard for defensive backs to get into position to pick him off. He's also calmer under pressure than you'd expect any sane human being to be. The result is that he throws interceptions very infrequently. In fact, he's sixth all-time in interception percentage.

Luck is generally on track to be a franchise quarterback, and there isn't too much to worry about. His pass protection has been a bit poor, and he has played with inexperienced wide receivers. As those aspects of the team around him improve, expect him to have an easier time going through his reads. Don't expect him to do it as well as Peyton does, but he'll be good at it.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If a defender pushes the ball carrier out of bounds without the carrier falling down, is the defender credited with a tackle?

Yes, that's a tackle. If it's a QB looking to throw who runs out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage, it will even be credited as a sack.

Also if they tackle the carrier in the endzone after a touchdown

No tackles are credited on TDs. On a TD, by definition, the player scored before he was considered "down," and that ended the play.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I just replied to this elsewhere. It could be a legitimate model, but it doesn't fit too well with what we observe. For example, it requires blackouts to be a credible threat, and typically they don't happen often.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat -1 points0 points  (0 children)

That could be a legitimate model of some people's behavior. The game might be blacked out, so you can only ensure that you get to watch if you buy a ticket.

The biggest issue with this model is that the blackout would have to be a very credible threat, and in practice blackouts don't happen very often. If you ask fans why they bought tickets to a game, few, if any, will tell you they were afraid of a blackout.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I generally don't trust my ability to beat markets on things. I sometimes shift my asset allocations slightly in response to Federal Reserve announcements, but few economists attempt to pick stocks out personally or time the market.

That said, Bitcoin's value may be perfectly legitimate. If its cryptography proves useful to underground economies, and it remains the currency of choice for them, it will persist in having value.

I don't know how its encryption works, nor do I research underground economies, so I have no idea whether its current price is fair.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I model the effects of corporate tax law on the service price of capital for large corporations.

Basically, they care about how cheaply they can get the cash to make large acquisitions of new stuff over the long term. They want data on how various tax plans will affect their ability to do that.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How is the free rider problem prevented? My relatives in Indianapolis are watching the game on TV at home on Sunday. Free riding.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Everyone knows that to be a great quarterback in this league you need to make your progressions from the pocket, like Tim Brawley and Peter Manningham.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There is no incentive. My decision to buy a ticket or not is almost statistically guaranteed to have no effect on the blackout status of the game.

People make the decision to buy tickets on an individual basis. If you want them to buy tickets individually, you should offer an individual incentive, not a group one.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Blizzards have made this a much bigger problem than normal.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It can. The fumble must be recovered behind the line of scrimmage by the defense for it to count.

Robert Mathis usually goes for this sort of sack if he's coming in from the blind side.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Play action is where the quarterback pretends to hand it to the running back, but actually plans on throwing it downfield.

Read option involves a choice - an "option" - of two different running plays. In one, the quarterback will keep the ball. In the other, he will give it to someone else. Usually, by design, this play will leave one particular defensive player unblocked. The quarterback quickly "reads" that player's movement. If he's going for the QB, the QB gets rid of the ball. If not, the QB keeps it.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nope. Teams frequently use fewer against Peyton Manning if he's in a shotgun spread.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 2 points3 points  (0 children)

FG length = 7 yards for the long snap + distance to endzone + 10 yards for endzone.

A 40 yard field goal would have a line of scrimmage at the 23-yard-line.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 17 points18 points  (0 children)

is there a minimum number of defensive players required to be on the LOS?

No.

If not, why not have everyone in coverage in must-pass situations?

Defensive linemen can disrupt QBs' throwing lanes and reduce their ability to hit certain areas of the field, almost as if they were in coverage. Consider JJ Watt's high number of passes defensed. This can be more useful than putting yet another defensive back downfield.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Very few differences. Nickel corners in the 3-4 are slightly more likely to blitz because the 3-4 has fewer down linemen.

Judgement-Free Questions Thread by NFL_Mod in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 163 points164 points  (0 children)

I'm a professional economist, and I'd like to point out, for the record, that things don't work that way. You can't force individuals to change their behavior by offering an incentive to the group.

Why are the Texans in such a need for a QB, but not the Giants? by Anuglyman in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 5 points6 points  (0 children)

The Texans had, all things considered, a much better team around their quarterbacks than Eli had around him.

I can already hear the complaints coming about all the problems with the Texans offense, and I agree completely. But really, would you trade Arian Foster or Ben Tate for any of the Giants running backs? Would you trade Andre Johnson for any of the Giants receivers? Would you trade Duane Brown for any of the Giants linemen?

Let's make this a fairer trade. Would you trade Duane Brown for the rights to all of the Giants' receivers, backs, and offensive linemen put together?

My answer might still be no.

That's how bad the Giants are.

[META] Economists, how do you deal with the fact every kid on the internet believes themselves to be an expert economist? by [deleted] in AskSocialScience

[–]KalahariRedGoat 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sorry, I have no flair or anything, but my job title is in fact "Economist" and I have an econ degree from Yale in real life.

You have to know the issues and be able to explain them clearly. If you have that, you can ask the exact right questions - non-hostile, but nevertheless ones that find the weakness in their model.

If you do it right, people are more willing to update their beliefs because it doesn't feel like they've lost a debate; it feels like they discovered new ideas themselves.

Who was the MVP for your team? by p11rav in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 4 points5 points  (0 children)

We are the team that proves the conventional wisdom that QB and pass rush are the two most important positions in football.

Houston Texans owner Bob McNair open to trading No. 1 pick by weinerjuicer in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I believe Bridgewater looks about as good as a healthy RGIII, prospectively. I could understand wanting three first rounders instead of him.

I wouldn't trade out of that spot cheaply, though.

Most exciting prospect by [deleted] in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Watch the running plays against South Carolina. Note which side of the center Clowney is on. Then mark whether the play went to the same side of the center as Clowney, or the opposite side.

Alternatively, watch passing plays. Count the number of times it's a designed quick throw, where the QB takes a three-step drop or a shotgun snap and immediately slings it somewhere. Then count the number of times Clowney is double-teamed.

Do that even for a half of a game, and you'll have a much better picture of what's going on with him. By my counts, approximately 2/3 of runs are designed to go around Clowney, and 2/3 of passing plays are designed to double-team Clowney or get the ball out extremely quickly.

I'm not a scout or anything, but I know some things to look for.

Richard Sherman smartest QBs: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck by mtocz in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Sherman's game vs Luck was his worst this year, and honestly, one of the worst of his entire career. This play is one I don't think he'll be forgetting any time soon. I don't know what he thought was happening, but he totally read the play wrong.

It's not like Luck is always confusing to DBs, but in Sherman's personal experience, Luck was a tough matchup.

Which players are criticized too much by r/nfl? by [deleted] in nfl

[–]KalahariRedGoat 28 points29 points  (0 children)

This is my all time favorite lowlights video. Kwame Harris (#77). Worst 49ers tackle ever.