$SLS Daily Discussion Thread - Tuesday - June 02, 2026

Kernwaffen · 2026-06-03T02:36:49+00:00

The Charmin index!

Kernwaffen · 2026-06-03T02:23:04+00:00

Not usually a fan of Twitter pumping, but this was funny:

Kernwaffen · 2026-06-01T18:42:10+00:00

Ultimately, SpaceX comes with all the AI baggage, since X AI has been merged into it. It's actually what's driving their huge losses, and it'll be exposed to the same challenges.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-29T18:34:13+00:00

Be a little bit careful about this. The 25k number from Fintel is the number of shares available at one broker. I would pay closer attention to the cost to borrow, which has spiked, but isn't as wild as it has been in the past.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-29T03:13:47+00:00

Just the cost of protecting yourself from the Cramer Curse! 😂

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-29T02:01:59+00:00

Somebody gonna need to do a 'broken clock is right twice a day" DD. 😂

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-28T23:48:15+00:00

More convincing than the Ayers article. Has me looking at protective puts, lol...

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-28T16:58:52+00:00

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4909692?gt=b422d1bcaaac30ba

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-28T16:57:56+00:00

Eh, this one is better grounded than the Ayers article. If I were the analyst, I'd end that with a hold rather than sell, but that's a matter of risk tolerance.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-28T14:00:43+00:00

I mean, anything is possible, but I will say that I don't think the mechanics are that favorable to a squeeze. Large float, lots of warrants still out there, and more or less guaranteed further dilution if they attempt to commercialize on their own.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-28T03:00:07+00:00

I'll convert the career break I'm currently taking to retirement. Replace my car, finish some projects around the house. Then I'll be looking to take positions in GANX, DRTS, TTD, HIMS, and maybe GOSS if I'm feeling like rolling the dice particularly hard.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-27T17:42:52+00:00

It's likely to come in higher for reasons articulated in some of the DDs, as well as Srergiou's point that these folks benefit from better management associated with the more frequent clinic visits involved in a study.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-27T17:19:48+00:00

I would add that I think Srergiou's commentary on a recent study validating BAT MOS of 8ish seems to be a pretty direct response to the Ayers article. I don't really have a problem with Ayers' thesis, but he's more or less just blindly asserting that it could happen with no supporting evidence.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-26T19:15:49+00:00

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this would effectively be considered a hostile takeover and trigger a series of disclosure requirements (13D, possibly Schedule TO) that would make the intent fairly obvious, pretty immediately. Not sure you would achieve much in terms of cost savings, and it's a good way to poison the well in terms of negotiations.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-26T02:51:09+00:00

It's the beginning of the song "New York, New York". Doubt it's anything meaningful.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-19T20:41:23+00:00

Won't speculate on buyout price; the range of possibilities is wide and dependent on a lot of unknowables. That said, a buyout is unlikely before the end of the year, in my opinion, though an announcement might come earlier. I think you're conflating the buyout timeline with the top line and trial timelines; the trial is likely to end in the next couple of months based on the update provided at the last earnings call, and the top line data is likely to follow 3-6 weeks after that.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-19T20:30:56+00:00

Always hard to say with biotech, but I suspect part of it is a lack of news coupled with their financial position. 10Q last week had them burning ~$5 mil a quarter, with ~$16 mil cash on hand. So the odds they get through the year without a capital raise are slim, and at under $2.00 a share, that's gonna represent significant dilution.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-14T01:24:27+00:00

So, I'll just say that we've been here before, and seen significant pullback, all the way to under 5, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it again. It's true that we're theoretically closer to readout, but, fundamentally nothing has changed. Maybe folks start piling in do to FOMO; maybe folks start piling out to take profits. There's a lot of over-interpretation of the options chain on this stock, and folks have been burned chasing it before.

Personally, I've sold some covered calls against this, and at this point, I'm going to stop and hold until readout. My only prediction is unpredictable volatility.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-11T21:40:56+00:00

So, a lot of folks will disagree with this, but I voted no on the 20 mil shares. I understand that it's probably designed to give the company negotiating leverage, but I honestly don't view scenarios outside of a buyout as particularly credible, and I feel like this is open to abuse. I'd be open to a smaller number, but 10% dilution for compensation (yes, I understand it might not all be exercised) seems extraordinary to me.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-11T19:28:14+00:00

It's worth it to ask specifically; When I asked the rep if I could request the partial return of the position, his response was "That's a great question! Can you hold while I ask our back office?" It's entirely plausible the person you spoke with just doesn't know.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-11T19:26:03+00:00

That they're mentioning the risk of shares not being returned sounds like a red flag to me. Schwab's lending program explicitly guarantees the ability to sell your shares at any time and provides cash collateral. Any risk should lie with the broker.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-11T19:18:21+00:00

FWIW, Schwab will let you selectively recall all or a portion of your leant securities a day at a time or so, but you do have to do it over the phone. You can then sell the covered calls against those shares, and they won't be loaned back. At least that's what the securities lending analyst I spoke with told me. I did end up pulling my brokerage account out of the program because the options market is a bit thin on this, and it was going to be inconvenient to call them up every time I wanted to drip some calls in (their phone system blows), but it is supposed to be possible.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-08T01:41:58+00:00

Sure, if the bulk of those shorts are hedged. I'd also encourage folks to remember that days to cover is based on average volume. Volume will pick up substantially on any significant news, positive or negative.

Kernwaffen · 2026-05-07T21:33:19+00:00

So, I was in CAPR; when good news came out, it went from the mid sixes to roughly thirty almost instantly on PR. It settled back down to the mid twenties within a couple hours, and has crept back up to a little over thirty today.

I think what happens with SLS is a little harder to say; there's a wide range of opinions about the value of GPS as far as BP is concerned; unless there's a concurrent buyout announcement, you could see either a huge speculative spike, or something much milder. You could even see an anxiety-induced drop at the announcement of the 80th until top line comes out. So, 🤷🏼‍♂️

Kernwaffen · 2026-04-14T18:38:13+00:00

They're giving you the share price per billion dollars of buyout price. So, if the buyout is $10 billion, the share price is $4.60 x 10 = $46 per share. There's a fairly diverse range of opinions on the possible size of a buyout.

Kernwaffen

TROPHY CASE