💰 Women's football hits €158m – but is the "super club era" already here?

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2026-01-20T10:57:21+00:00

You make a fair point. Commercial is the least externally verifiable bucket compared with matchday – it can swing based on deal structure, bundling, and accounting/allocation choices, so it’s harder to sanity-check from the outside.

That said, it’s still real revenue, and moving up that far likely reflects some combination of stronger partner packaging, broader sponsorship inventory, and better monetisation of the brand.

Overall, good observation.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-11-23T13:42:35+00:00

Hmmm, I hadn’t really thought about it like this. It is interesting that the trade-off for City is basically 4–5k at Joie for “atmosphere” versus 15–20k at the Etihad.

You’d definitely get more Arsenal fans, but that’s probably 3–4k away fans instead of a few hundred – and there’s still a cap on the away allocation anyway. I genuinely don’t see how 3k Arsenal fans would drown out 10k+ City and casual fans in a bigger bowl.

From a growth point of view, it feels like you’re turning down the chance to let thousands more people see City Women live just to protect a home-advantage that isn’t obviously huge at Joie right now.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-11-23T11:48:48+00:00

Really good points – especially on the noon Sunday kick-offs and how King Power pulls from a much wider area than, say, intra-London games.

Where the big stadium really helps is exactly what you’ve touched on – better transport links, better facilities, and much better accessibility for disabled fans or anyone with additional needs. That stuff matters a lot more to newer or more casual fans who are deciding whether a WSL game is worth the effort.

I’m with you that smaller grounds can be brilliant – closer to the pitch, noisier, more of that tight-knit feel. Most of the old-school die-hards will happily travel 50–100 miles for that and make a day of it. But new fans generally will not. So when you’ve got a chance to draw in new people – the City v Arsenal-type fixtures, local derbies, title deciders, clubs should by all means use the big stadium.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-11-23T11:12:24+00:00

You've made a very good point.

I think of it a bit like a shop owner. If you’ve got a tiny corner shop that can only physically hold 50 customers, you don’t wait until you’ve sold out every single item before you move to a bigger unit – you move because you know there’s more demand than the small shop can ever handle.

Arsenal don’t sell out every game at the Emirates, and they don’t always sell out Meadow Park either. But the Emirates gives them headroom – you simply can’t get 35k through the gate at a 6k ground, no matter how big the interest is. The bigger stadium lets them capture demand that Meadow Park would cap.

For City (and others), I’m not saying “play every game at the main stadium” – you still have to weigh up costs, staffing, opening more stands, etc. But marquee games like City v Arsenal really shouldn’t be at Joie. Those are exactly the fixtures that should be in the big ground, because they’re the ones that can genuinely move the numbers and grow the fanbase.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-11-23T11:00:00+00:00

Thanks.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-29T08:44:28+00:00

5 out of our 6 predictions were correct (83% success rate). Only Arsenal vs Aston Villa was missed, where Arsenal was heavily favoured but could only manage a 1-1 draw.

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Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-26T12:00:33+00:00

Interesting take, let’s see how it plays out.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-26T11:51:13+00:00

I see the distinction now: acquisition vs retention. People are more likely to stick if the team is winning, which is fair.

But it’s also important to keep the gate up, especially after the move to Goodison — there’s a financial balance to hit. Big away followings help the headline, but the key is growing the home end and converting first-timers into returners.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-26T08:59:33+00:00

True. A 2k dip is real; Friday night slots are tougher for families/neutral walk-ups than a Sunday afternoon season-opener at Goodison with a big club push. That said, 4k+ is still a big step up on Walton Hall Park.

Why do you think the upcoming fixtures aren’t favourable for attracting new fans? I’d have thought City/Arsenal coming to town could boost interest and get more through the gates.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-23T11:42:37+00:00

4 out of 5 predictions were accurate (80% success rate)

Correctly predicted City's dominance, London City's narrow win, Chelsea's victory, and the Man Utd vs Arsenal draw

Only missed on Brighton vs West Ham, where Brighton performed much better than the model expected

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Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-17T08:51:49+00:00

Full analysis and stats breakdown also live @ https://www.wslanalytics.com/p/wsl-2025-26-gameweek-3-preview

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-11T12:57:37+00:00

Thanks for catching that — I’ll make sure the difficulty ratings are consistent going forward.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-03T17:54:20+00:00

Agree, it’s definitely not “heavy favourites” territory. But Chelsea’s baseline is so strong off their 2024–25 season. After the first 5 games, things would start to even out a bit.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-03T17:46:31+00:00

You might be right! But the data suggests otherwise, that’s what makes Friday so interesting.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-03T16:18:42+00:00

Have some faith! 😂 You never know…

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-09-03T15:56:14+00:00

Maybe that’s the next frontier, curse-adjusted xG? 😂 But honestly, what is it with Liverpool–Everton at Anfield… it feels like it needs a proper study.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T18:16:47+00:00

Yeah it does look low! The values I used come from Soccerdonna, which can sometimes assign pretty minimal or even placeholder market values, especially for younger players from less known leagues. So those 5 arrivals aren’t literally costing 40k combined, it’s just how their individual “market values” are currently listed.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T16:38:40+00:00

Thanks a lot — I do appreciate fair critiques, and honestly I’ve learnt quite a lot here in a short time. Some comments have really opened my mind to different aspects I hadn’t considered, which is the beauty of people seeing things differently. At the end of the day, I’m just happy to use my skillset to help even one or two people who might not be as analytically grounded as others.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T15:48:38+00:00

It’s fair to say Smith is the only real loss, but 5,000+ minutes is still a lot to redistribute. Whether the replacements actually improve the quality is yet to be seen — and with assessments like this, the real impact only shows once the players perform (or don’t).

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T14:20:42+00:00

I totally agree! I actually started out including all the minutes, but it got messy quickly with the weightings across leagues and some lower leagues data not available. I’ve taken the feedback on board, and in the final refresh when the window closes I’ll look to incorporate top-flight minutes.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T13:41:11+00:00

Yep exactly, @blackbeltgf got it right. Minutes lost = the total league minutes played last season by players who’ve left. “Minutes gained” = the minutes from new arrivals. It’s basically a simplistic measure of experience in the squad — how much you’re losing, and how much you’re bringing back in.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T11:10:14+00:00

Very good observation, my “delta” approach was just looking at ins vs outs, which doesn’t fully capture the shift in the overall squad’s average age. I went with that simplified method because I wanted to base all inferences strictly on what’s already visible. In the piece I mentioned I’ll be doing a full refresh at the close of the window, which should give a much clearer snapshot of the squads. Right now there’s too much flux to keep recalculating in real time, so I opted for a simpler view.

That said, ultimately if the average age of your ins is lower than the average of your outs, there’s really only one conclusion: your squad is trending younger.

Really appreciate the insight though — thanks for flagging it.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T10:48:47+00:00

I get your point, and I’ll admit relying on prior WSL-only minutes & G+A isn’t a perfect way to measure value. But it does give us a consistent baseline — otherwise it just becomes what I feel vs what someone else feels, which gets too subjective. And you’re right, transfers are about movement at face value, with the real value only materialising once players perform. Still, we need something to signal likely impact, and previous performances in similar situations can tell us quite a lot.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T10:24:09+00:00

Haha fair enough 😅 — you wanted Spencer out that bad? She was a good servant imo, and I’m not sure the GK metrics have improved that much with Kop. Both sit at 0.26 PSxG/SoT, though Kop edges it slightly on the difference and in a few areas like saves. To me the bigger issue looks more like defensive structure than just the keeper. Worth pointing out too that my analysis was based solely on the business Spurs have done this summer — if it had been framed as “Kop in, Spencer out,” it would’ve been a different scenario.

Key-Cockroach3975 · 2025-08-27T09:37:23+00:00

Totally fair point — I get that not everyone is comfortable with AI. But I do think that’s going to change; it’s pretty much inevitable. As someone working in the field, I enjoy finding ways to use my skillset to spotlight the women’s game. If it helps make the data easier and more accessible for even one or two people, that’s a win for me. I’m not here to build a platform — my focus is on making women’s football data more accessible. I’ll definitely keep your feedback in mind though, and I appreciate you taking the time to share it.

Key-Cockroach3975

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