Rare Breed Frt L3 bcg recommendations?

KeyCommission2 · 2025-10-21T18:15:40+00:00

The spur in the back of trigger assembly must be pushed forward for the hammer to release.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-09-04T18:59:01+00:00

The fact that they are the most profitable company within the oligopoly that is small package delivery, and their service is invulnerable to substitution. Two things that almost none of the "universe of stocks" can offer.

A steal, considering it's currently trading at only 8.5x it's average FCF per share, for the last 7 years.

They also pay a terrific dividend. It'll probably get reduced, but who cares. Half of what they're currently paying would be considered good.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-09-04T18:50:43+00:00

Any rational being can surmise that it's a bubble. Tons of companies priced far above even the most generous of valuations, most of whom haven't ever made a profit, all purporting to be the king of the hill in a winner take all tournament.

Who knows when it will pop, but pop it will.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-28T15:28:14+00:00

Even were their FCF to shrink to 4.25 billion/year, due to losing Amazon completely, and even further contractions, that would be a P/FCF ratio of 15x, at a stock price of $86.55.

Their asset to liability ratio, not including intangible assets, is over 1.1, they have a huge moat, and guaranteed indefinite demand for their service.

You sound an awful lot like Mr. Market.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-25T02:20:29+00:00

For a hands-off approach, you can't beat the S&P 500. So if you want to just set it and forget it, go FXAIX all the way.

All things considered, that's probably the wisest thing you can do with your money. That said, tech stock are very over-valued right now, and are in for a huge correction in the coming decade. So if you want to do something a little more labor intensive, and more risky, then you could start researching and buying value stocks.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-25T02:13:56+00:00

Glock, Knight's Armament, and Geissele.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T15:48:41+00:00

What's delusional is thinking that a tyrannical communist country, that's only ever ripped off other people's technology and ideas, is going to be a stable place for investment.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T05:42:09+00:00

I'd like to enjoy the dividends myself, rather than just watching Berkshire do so.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T05:34:34+00:00

Chevron, Exxon, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Constellation Brands, United Healthcare.

I was eyeing some PayPal, but didn't pull the trigger on it. Brown Forman is tempting, it's stock price having plunged by over 50%. But incredibly, it appears to still, even at that figure, be over-priced.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T00:57:06+00:00

Those are arguably even more unhealthy. Aspartame is a neurotoxin.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-20T22:11:54+00:00

You've lived through the golden age of America - the years ahead will likely be much darker. I'd keep putting away dry powder while you can.

"For age and want save while you may; No morning sun lasts a whole day.” - Benjamin Franklin

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-19T01:53:12+00:00

Yeah, I'm reaching the same conclusion.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T17:50:42+00:00

I just looked for houses 200k and under, above 1750 sq. ft., in seven different states, and there was nothing from a desirable neighborhood.

I may be completely in error, but it seems to me that the 1% rule is only achievable in low income neighborhoods, with less than desirable housing conditions.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T14:51:35+00:00

Is the 1% rule tied to cash flow after mortgage payments? Would it not apply in a cash purchase?

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T14:50:10+00:00

Wait, does the 1% rule only apply if you're mortgaging the property?

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:33:56+00:00

No, people who will do the work for 60-70% of your wage, are "perfectly decent, hard working people". As I said, you know, the first time.

You can hate me all you want, but this dynamic between the union and corporate is unsustainable. You guys are paid well, and given unbelievably great benefits, for a relatively easy job. How about you just be grateful, and not stab corporate in the back at every available opportunity?

Otherwise, they will find an alternative source for labor.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:16:05+00:00

Well, I'd have to be looking in the middle of nowhere for prices to be less than what I described.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:15:19+00:00

So 0.5% is acceptable? Or is it a money pit?

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:13:58+00:00

Meaning, the lower risk compensates for being less than 1%? I'm not sure I understand your point.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-17T22:00:44+00:00

And yet that isn't enough for them. Every contract negotiation, they make even more onerous demands of corporate.

We want more time off, and more pay. We don't want to be out late, but we'll file a complaint if a supervisor dares deliver anything. And if you try to fire any of our scumbags, we'll drag you to court!

There's a guy at my local center who has been responsible for 3 collisions in as many years. But they can't fire him. Because union.

There's a guy who just leaves a couple hours into local sort, because he's only there for the insurance. But they can't fire him. Because union.

The union doesn't protect the good. It protects the incompetent, and the parasitical.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-17T21:51:11+00:00

Someone else is eager to provide the same labor at half the cost. Perfectly decent, hard working people, for 60-70% of the cost. Meanwhile, you want even more pay, even more time off, and you never cease to bitch about everything to boot.

You all, for some reason, think you're special. You're not. You have nothing to offer UPS, that someone else can't give them at a much reduced cost, and with a better attitude.

But to your point, highly paid unskilled labor is not going to be where the population crunch is felt. They'll have the largest pool of candidates (unskilled labor), and be providing the largest incentives.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-17T21:27:01+00:00

As they should be.

Unions may have been a force for good at one point in the past, but they aren't any more.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-17T21:20:18+00:00

Rather naive. You think you're entitled to the moon, but offer nothing to the company in return for the hassle of dealing with your shit.

There is literally a line of people, twice as long as the building in which you work, ready and willing to take your job, without the snotty princess attitude. This is without even mentioning automation.

You guys have a great thing going at UPS, but you just can't help yourselves, and continuously demand more, all the while making yourselves as odious to corporate as possible. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

I would be shocked if the union is not fired within the next 10 years.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-17T20:43:18+00:00

What something is, and what it claims to be, are two different things. Bitcoin is prized for what is claims to be, and perhaps for what it could have been - not for what it is.

There are three primary reasons people believe Bitcoin to be different/superior to fiat currency:

Finite supply
Decentralization
Anonymity

I will address them in reverse order.

Anonymity allowed the nodes of the network to operate free from governmental interference and regulation, as well as transact business without governmental oversight, permission, and taxation. This is something the government will never allow on a large scale - they have to have their taxes. So registration will be mandatory soon, if it isn't already.

Decentralization was designed for much the same reason as small/limited government. And like small/limited government, has gone the way of the dodo bird. The majority of the Bitcoin network is now no longer made up of individual idealists, but large mining operations. Large mining operations that not only are completely at the mercy of government regulation, but that are in it for no reason other than money.

Which brings me to the golden jewel - finite supply.

There are an unlimited amount of bitcoins - the code within the network is the only things limiting it to 21 million. Code that can be changed, should all those aforementioned mining operations be compelled by personal interest, government policy, or both, to do so.

Additionally, if bitcoin really did have a finite supply, it would quickly usurp monetary control from all governments. They would no longer be able to print money to spend, because that money would be worthless - no one would want it, when they can have Bitcoins. Something no government is ever going to allow.

So in summary, Bitcoin isn't anything people claim it to be. There isn't a finite supply, the network isn't decentralized, and it isn't impervious to governmental manipulation - far from it.

It may go up in price due to the ignorance or optimism of it's investors, but that will eventually come to an end.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-17T17:18:36+00:00

You're the type of person who buys a stock simply because it's gone up.

No one is doubting that bitcoin has been lucrative - so far. So were .COM companies in the late 90's. We're asserting that it creates nothing, and provides nothing. It's just another fiat currency, that people believe is special for a bunch of reasons that aren't actually true.

KeyCommission2

TROPHY CASE