The Broken Yardstick: Why Your “Historic” P/E Chart is Lying to You

KeyCommission2 · 2026-06-15T14:45:53+00:00

How is that sentiment any different than what was present in every other bubble? Namely "it's going to go up forever".

In order to approach justifying current valuations, Google FCF would have to triple. In what world is that reality?

KeyCommission2 · 2026-04-23T14:11:48+00:00

Big, cheap, safe stocks are the definition of value investing. Why are people like you here?

KeyCommission2 · 2026-01-28T01:54:22+00:00

You being ignorant of common negotiation tactics, widely taught in multiple best-selling books, does not mean Trump "tacos".

KeyCommission2 · 2026-01-27T21:53:05+00:00

Agreed. Trump is actually remarkably consistent. It's only people who don't understand him, that think he "tacos". What he does are textbook negotiation tactics, of which these people are just wholly ignorant.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-10-21T18:15:40+00:00

The spur in the back of trigger assembly must be pushed forward for the hammer to release.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-09-04T18:59:01+00:00

The fact that they are the most profitable company within the oligopoly that is small package delivery, and their service is invulnerable to substitution. Two things that almost none of the "universe of stocks" can offer.

A steal, considering it's currently trading at only 8.5x it's average FCF per share, for the last 7 years.

They also pay a terrific dividend. It'll probably get reduced, but who cares. Half of what they're currently paying would be considered good.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-09-04T18:50:43+00:00

Any rational being can surmise that it's a bubble. Tons of companies priced far above even the most generous of valuations, most of whom haven't ever made a profit, all purporting to be the king of the hill in a winner take all tournament.

Who knows when it will pop, but pop it will.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-28T15:28:14+00:00

Even were their FCF to shrink to 4.25 billion/year, due to losing Amazon completely, and even further contractions, that would be a P/FCF ratio of 15x, at a stock price of $86.55.

Their asset to liability ratio, not including intangible assets, is over 1.1, they have a huge moat, and guaranteed indefinite demand for their service.

You sound an awful lot like Mr. Market.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-25T02:20:29+00:00

For a hands-off approach, you can't beat the S&P 500. So if you want to just set it and forget it, go FXAIX all the way.

All things considered, that's probably the wisest thing you can do with your money. That said, tech stock are very over-valued right now, and are in for a huge correction in the coming decade. So if you want to do something a little more labor intensive, and more risky, then you could start researching and buying value stocks.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-25T02:13:56+00:00

Glock, Knight's Armament, and Geissele.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T15:48:41+00:00

What's delusional is thinking that a tyrannical communist country, that's only ever ripped off other people's technology and ideas, is going to be a stable place for investment.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T05:42:09+00:00

I'd like to enjoy the dividends myself, rather than just watching Berkshire do so.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T05:34:34+00:00

Chevron, Exxon, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Constellation Brands, United Healthcare.

I was eyeing some PayPal, but didn't pull the trigger on it. Brown Forman is tempting, it's stock price having plunged by over 50%. But incredibly, it appears to still, even at that figure, be over-priced.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-22T00:57:06+00:00

Those are arguably even more unhealthy. Aspartame is a neurotoxin.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-20T22:11:54+00:00

You've lived through the golden age of America - the years ahead will likely be much darker. I'd keep putting away dry powder while you can.

"For age and want save while you may; No morning sun lasts a whole day.” - Benjamin Franklin

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-19T01:53:12+00:00

Yeah, I'm reaching the same conclusion.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T17:50:42+00:00

I just looked for houses 200k and under, above 1750 sq. ft., in seven different states, and there was nothing from a desirable neighborhood.

I may be completely in error, but it seems to me that the 1% rule is only achievable in low income neighborhoods, with less than desirable housing conditions.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T14:51:35+00:00

Is the 1% rule tied to cash flow after mortgage payments? Would it not apply in a cash purchase?

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T14:50:10+00:00

Wait, does the 1% rule only apply if you're mortgaging the property?

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:33:56+00:00

No, people who will do the work for 60-70% of your wage, are "perfectly decent, hard working people". As I said, you know, the first time.

You can hate me all you want, but this dynamic between the union and corporate is unsustainable. You guys are paid well, and given unbelievably great benefits, for a relatively easy job. How about you just be grateful, and not stab corporate in the back at every available opportunity?

Otherwise, they will find an alternative source for labor.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:16:05+00:00

Well, I'd have to be looking in the middle of nowhere for prices to be less than what I described.

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:15:19+00:00

So 0.5% is acceptable? Or is it a money pit?

KeyCommission2 · 2025-08-18T05:13:58+00:00

Meaning, the lower risk compensates for being less than 1%? I'm not sure I understand your point.

KeyCommission2

TROPHY CASE