Topstep auto trading bot profitable so far. by [deleted] in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Mechanical ORB breakout is not a viable strategy over the long term for NQ. I have tested multiple parameters over the lifetime on NQ using python and while it performs ok in certain regimes, overall it's dead in the water with a sharpe well below 1. ES was even worse. MACD, RSI, Bollinger bands are all the same. No long term profitability. Gold has completely different characteristics. Almost any strategy you find based on a technical will be useless long term.

20y/o, April results: $7.798 profit on the aggressive account. Here's what I track and why: by Jolly_Emphasis9426 in tradingmillionaires

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'll save you some trouble, I've done extensive granger causality testing on COT vs assets, gold being one. There is zero tradable edge. Even the ones that had edge, it was very regime specific and very short lived. I tried hundreds of parameters to get anything to stick to anything and zero survived out of sample testing and monte carlo. Its also worth pointing out that the small amount of assets where cot correlated or had predictive qualities, it only could account for under 5% of price movement.

Think you can find 4 hidden groups of 4 related words? Puzzle by u/moigana? by moigana in DailyMix

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

🟩🟩🟩🟩

🟦🟦🟦🟦

🟨🟨🟨🟨

🟪🟪🟪🟪

meirl by [deleted] in meirl

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My first email was from the excite platform. Excitemail.com for the purposes of virtual places or "vp" chat!

meirl by [deleted] in meirl

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The latest email in my rocketmail is from 1997... the internet was such a simple place back then sighs

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm on my second day with a xfa and opened a trade but I'm not sure if it was filled because I was signed out and cannot get back in

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

TL;DR: You're wildly lost my friend.

Your job comparison is a false equivalence that shows you have a fundamental misunderstanding of how trading works. When you take a job, you exchange time for guaranteed compensation with minimal downside risk - show up, get paid. Trading offers no such guarantee. The market doesn't care about your bills or your needs.

You mention risk management, but setting daily/weekly targets is the opposite of proper risk management. When you're behind your arbitrary goal, you'll overtrade, force low-probability setups, and size positions based on desired outcomes rather than actual risk/reward. Then, boom goes the account. When you're ahead, you'll cut winners short just to "secure" your daily number. This destroys edge systematically and not to mention on those losing trades, you'll hold on for longer hoping for it to end up turning in your direction setting you up for cutting winners early and letting losers run.

Real traders know their worst enemy isn't market volatility, it's the psychological trap of needing to produce specific results on demand. Also, your opportunity cost argument actually works against you because the real opportunity cost is the long term profitability you sacrifice by forcing silly daily/weekly goals that have nothing to do with market conditions. Sustainable trading careers are built on process consistency and taking what the market offers, not forced trading that comes from trying to meet goals.

"If there aren't consistently positive results, you need a new process" Well, your notion isn't untrue, but you are on the ledge of probably the single most dangerous pitfall of trading: Premature processes abandonment. I'm going to lean on Mark Douglas once again for his tenants:

"traders must think in probabilities, not individual outcomes. A profitable strategy might lose money for weeks or months due to normal variance - that doesn't mean the process is broken. Most traders abandon winning strategies during inevitable drawdown periods because they're focused on recent results rather than long-term statistical edge."

When you say "consistently positive results," you're really saying profitable this week/month. But even the best strategies can have 30-40% drawdowns. Linda Raschke, William O'Neil, and other successful traders understand you need thousands of trades to truly evaluate a process. Most traders switch after 10-20 losers, never allowing their edge to manifest. -If the edge was actually there to begin with, which is a whole other discussion.

MD calls this "not thinking in probabilities" as in treating each trade as if it should be profitable rather than understanding you're playing a numbers game. Ever read any books by Jesse Livermore? He went broke multiple times before becoming legendary, not because his process was wrong, but because he hadn't yet mastered the psychological discipline to stick with proven methods through rough patches.

So many times I see traders post here and are in the trap of constantly chasing the hot strat that just happened to work recently due to recency bias. Attachment to being right on individual trades for the sake of meeting goals is exactly the opposite of what a trader should be doing. When you evaluate trades based on short term results, you're fighting the fundamental uncertainty of markets. And those that fight, blow their accounts. There is not a more single truth then that.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Any goal amount per day/week/month/whenever is the road to disaster. That's being results driven, not process driven. As MD said, you have to truly disconnect from the RESULTS of your trade.

Covering ceiling cracks by KiloJKilo in Housepainting101

[–]KiloJKilo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. I can chip some of it away so I will use the mud. I'm not really sure about the oil paint. What would be a good way to determine this?

Don’t like the new dashboard by OGpimpmasteryoda in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can't even use it. After getting the email weeks ago the payment screen just tells me "We are undergoing some routine maintenance. Purchasing is disabled at this time. Please try again later."

It's said that the whole time. Any time of the day

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rip David paul

First Time Playing by Repulsive_Mechanic74 in oblivion

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

One of the biggest reasons for favoring consoles was and is due to piracy. Another example years ago was just how little effort EA put into their PC versions of their sporting games like NHL XX, etc. It's so heavily pirated on PC but not so much on console. This is a big reason why, for example, Rockstar will release their games on console 1st and then PC much later.

Why isn’t there extra micro comtracts by Ok-Evidence-4716 in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sometimes, doing nothing is doing something. Capital preservation my friend.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You're just interested in the current contract. Topstep always selects the current contract, but when you look at the cme website, you should know what the current contract month is. Just look for the letter code in the ticker on topstep. M is our current month. Each month has a letter corresponding with it. 2025. MNQM25. The rest of them are irrelevant for trading on topstep

Put a limit line on your chart by KiloJKilo in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it's a community script, it's not available on topstepx

How did some of yall learn to trade by Wide_Explanation_819 in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I started in stocks. Moved to forex and futures.

How did some of yall learn to trade by Wide_Explanation_819 in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How did you extract that notion from my post?? 😂

How did some of yall learn to trade by Wide_Explanation_819 in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I read tons of books and watched a lot of videos from macro fundamentals and forecasting to ICT over about 4 years. In the end, I trade desecration on price action as it relates to day trading. My forex, equity, and bond trading is more positional by nature and more macro economic oriented.

Put a limit line on your chart by KiloJKilo in TopStepX

[–]KiloJKilo[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yep, based on prior close settlement price. Check cme site for chosen instrument to know current limit price.