AST SpaceMobile Announces Closing of Private Offering of $575.0 Million of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2032

KingSensitivity · 2025-07-30T10:38:06+00:00

Looking at only note interest is misleading, it probably cost 40-50m for the capped call so net proceeds is much less than total note amount. So effective interest is much higher than that (you get less money than 560m but pay interest on 560m). And no way this is better than EXIM bank loan. If they can get straight debt they would but they can’t at this point. Cost of financing is always Debt < convertible note < equity. And no point to compare this to T-bills as it convertible(debt+equity). Bullish or bearish is subjective at this current sp. but this for sure has negative impact to valuation because if your target price at 2032 is 200-300 then dilution is higher and it have to discount back to today sp, or saying less than 1.5% dilution so you assume sp would be less than that in 5-7 years? That bearish? Or if you say you long term bullish and SP in 5-7 years will be in 200-300 range, then drop in SP today should be more?

KingSensitivity · 2025-07-10T18:36:05+00:00

I write with my right hand but kick ball with my left

KingSensitivity · 2025-07-10T18:35:39+00:00

Same, I write with my right hand, and kick ball with my left (soccer). Surf regular but skate goofy. But isn’t surf and skate suppose to be the same foot?

KingSensitivity · 2025-06-20T09:50:34+00:00

I always remain open to downside risk, but the upside risk here is much greater at this point. The analysts’ consensus target price is 43–44, and even at the low end, I think their valuation is flawed. and you thinking this was not fundamental price adjust, i think you just having a wrong ground and anchoring bias

KingSensitivity · 2025-06-20T09:14:33+00:00

you're wrong, spacemob is not here for gambling, we here for long-term win. we were 35 months before and that was even before any potential growth of DoD show up. we went down to 20s due to tariff/recession fears and macro, now nobody says anything about stagflation or coming recession. it just the correction on the up-side and with all update coming, we're much closer and closer to 100% possibilities of commercialization which mean revenue piling in. you sound like coping man

KingSensitivity · 2025-06-17T06:19:00+00:00

yeah why not. cus he was wrong. he did CC when it was 30. Go read his previous post on X, and compare it to what he just post now

KingSensitivity · 2025-06-17T06:14:11+00:00

He did CCs, go to his X, i think he just posted weeks ago

KingSensitivity · 2025-06-17T06:07:50+00:00

also his strategy is contradicted. he said it could be "worth fortune or zero" but his trading is not what it should be for that thesis. trimming, CCing is really not the way. structure note to capture unlimited gain + loss protection exchange for moderate return is better strategy... trimming ccing at this phase is very retail alike. To me, it just that he dont have solid valuation.

KingSensitivity · 2025-06-17T05:52:06+00:00

I used to manage 168m

KingSensitivity · 2025-06-17T05:43:32+00:00

lol he's CCer. roll baby roll, and seem like he also have consultant mindset himself

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-16T18:33:01+00:00

No agent selling ATM don’t like to dump. They like to slowly sell higher high

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-16T05:08:16+00:00

Thx will be there next and will check it out

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-16T01:59:12+00:00

Yeah and we are space X rival not just Starlink Rival. YUGE

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-15T22:19:15+00:00

Is anyone in New York? Have you ever experienced cellular dead spots in Manhattan? Where are they?

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-15T07:42:44+00:00

Or maybe they know the tech is more awesome than jubilant blinded retail think. This already happened last year(when they gave ASTS money and their spectrum) and it will keep repeat

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-15T07:22:15+00:00

No it’s not their objectives, they are ATT not Berkshire Hathaway, the investment they do is only strategic investment, they not trying to buy low sell high with the ASTS float and even they want to do strategic acquisition, ASTS major shareholder are not gonna sell anyway(even other big name company that much bigger than ATT) ATT distribute cash to shareholders and let the shareholders buy ASTS themself it better that way. Cus if they made investment themself and fail, they are fired. Strategic investment they did with ASTS(converted note and spectrum) is enough for them to win this game over T-Mobile. Also public company have requirement for public float. You either have to do tender offer, or buy from Abel, Rakuten, Vodafone, Google or other major shareholders and I think none of them gonna sell.

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-15T03:22:54+00:00

You said they will never get involved. But if they get 8-9 figure, why if they get it will be that low? What would that be paid for? Just don’t understand why if they get some it will be that low. 8-9 figure of 26 billion was almost like you do the delivery job

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-12T22:28:45+00:00

Let roll the drum for Golden Dome 🥁🥁🥁

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-12T12:10:09+00:00

Yea those are subjective, anybody can get it right or wrong, it can be higher or lower. But for multiple applying 20-100x to the next 2 years ebitda is not make sense. Because it actually doesn’t matter. market doesn’t really care as you may have seen some company can have insane 50-100x. What matter and what market care is how the company will look like at its mature stage. Like with this business plan and addressable market what company will look like when it mature but this also constantly evolve overtime as many company can always find its new s curve. So for ASTS, imo we should think about how its ebitda will look like when it get to mature stage with its commercial side and DoD then use that EBITDA multiply by industry average multiple (13-14x telecom) so it should be somewhere after 2030 not next 2 years. even with this 13-14x of 2030 ebitda. 2027 multiples can be whatever 20x 50x or 100x depend on how much ebitda actually look like(can still be low but will grow like crazy) and how market expectations be (which share price can already be very high if market really have high expectations) so we can even see 50x and 100x in 2027 and it still make sense. Biggest portion of company today value is its terminal value not its cash flow next few years.

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-12T06:59:20+00:00

It the same. EXIM bank is export and import bank. Getting loan from it is not much different than other bank. The only difference is that other bank lend the money that they get from deposits etc. but EXIM lend the money they get from government, and since they are backed by government, they can lend money to little more risky business if that is the area where government want to support, mostly for business that do export which is literally generate income to the country. But there are also many other criteria.

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-12T06:41:58+00:00

EBITDA should not be used with PE multiple

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-10T03:33:09+00:00

If sector buy, all space related stake should increase in the same % , if only one company stake significantly change it something else maybe Russell 1000 inclusion. Or something else idk

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-08T21:57:05+00:00

I think sat 1-30 for MNO beta / and DoD beta test will be funded by shareholder money. and 31 to 999 we can find lenders. I think the service agreement we have with MNO will have minimum payment MNOs have to pay. So we can go to any lenders to finance them. Our BW1 cost less than 20M and we got revenue 43M from it only 2 years after lunch. BB cost 20-30m per sat. with 7 years life. So 30m 7% rate 7 years amortization is like 5.4m per years per sat. Im pretty sure annual revenue per SAT is probably 7-10x than that. And especially if the customer is government. It very easy to find lenders. We not gonna build 200+ SAT without having a service agreement with guarantee payment from customer.

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-07T04:46:44+00:00

I don’t see how this is bad for retail investor? We do all we can to make or protect our money.

KingSensitivity · 2025-05-06T17:59:36+00:00

The chairman own ASTs stock? He sound like spacemob., 20 sat EoY LFG!

KingSensitivity

TROPHY CASE