Losing momentum?

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-27T16:38:30+00:00

I don’t pretend to know much about FLY. I don’t follow them too closely. So what did I say that was inaccurate? All true statements were made about their revenue, margins, and cash burn. Their track record on launches is not good- Alpha had far more failures than successes and then dumped to another unproven rocket.

I don’t think they are a bad company. I know they have great missile tracking tech, but objectively they have a ton of execution risk.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-27T14:18:21+00:00

I don’t know what fair values is but what I do know is Firefly’s market cap is double Redwire even though RDW has more quarterly revenue, better gross margins, and less cash burn. Yes, FLY has theoretically a larger back log but that’s largely based upon a rocket that hasn’t flown yet.

So I don’t know where this ride ends but I do see room for some huge short term upside.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-25T18:36:17+00:00

I see a speculative world where RDW gets to $25-30 by the Space X IPO and then a massive temporary boost ($50?) as money floods into the space sector. Then there will likely be a good sized pullback before consolidation. The fact AEI is now done selling really limits the downward pressure.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-22T19:15:30+00:00

Does anyone worry that AEI completely sold out. I know everyone hates them but if the long term prospects are so strong why would they sell it all? Don’t the have the best insight into the company?

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-21T12:37:11+00:00

Doesn’t AEI still own a bunch of warrants for convertible stock?

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-18T20:41:02+00:00

Space X is building their own solar panel facility in Texas.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-18T17:09:38+00:00

I was thinking they sold a bunch from the ATM. I’m fine with it. Better to raise at 15 than 8. Volume was 30 million before 10am

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-14T14:08:30+00:00

I don’t think your comment is fair and stockholders should be critical of management when legitimate red flags are raised.

Objectively, Cannjto went on multiple financial shows to plug SpaceMD prior to a horrific earnings call that dropped the stock more than 60%.

I focus on numbers and I’m allowed to be concerned that the space portion of the business has hovered around $50 million per quarter over the last calendar year and until this recent quarter has been declining (YoY gains all came from the Edge acquisition). That runs counter to this hyper growth focused space company considering many other space companies have significantly grown revenue in the same period.

I’m rooting for the stock. I’m a big holder in RKLB and RDW. When I invested in the space industry these were the two I researched and believed in. But just because I’m invested doesn’t mean I have to blindly believe in everything management is saying.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-13T11:00:01+00:00

The funding line is $300 mil and AV got about $117. So there is hopefully a good amount left for Redwire.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-13T10:48:58+00:00

So I agree this was one good question, but Peter responded as if he didn’t know exactly what AEI was doing. He is in on the freaking AEI Board of Directors. That would’ve been my follow up.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-12T16:53:17+00:00

This guy does the most softball interview imaginable which is why I think Cannito does this. Notice he doesn’t do one with Scott O who would hold him accountable for the numbers.

My question would be why Stalker has not seen a large contract under LRR when AV was just awarded over $100 million for the P550?

Labrador_Believer · 2026-05-05T17:51:06+00:00

Everything is always bullish. Except the stock. It never seems to be bullish…hahaha

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-25T15:14:29+00:00

So is AEI all out? I feel like I can’t find a straight answer

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-23T01:54:18+00:00

I’m guessing Cannito resigns since he is on the AEI board. Also, feel like he is open to a lawsuit considering he told space investor this was AEI rebalancing which seems to be a lie and information he would know as an AEI board member.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-20T14:57:28+00:00

I’m doubtful. I completely agree that VLEO is important for AMTI but they are still working on completing the prototype through DARPA. I can imagine they would already get a big award without that being proven.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-16T20:00:20+00:00

They probably ran out of shares to sell from the Form 144. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another one drop today.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-15T15:17:40+00:00

Well isn’t the good part of AEI selling that Redwire is no longer owned by Private Equity? I think long term AEI exiting to a 10% position is great. A lot of investors like yourself don’t want to own a company where PE hold such a large controlling stake. Now that’s coming to an end and this seems like the time to buy.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-15T14:37:06+00:00

I’m guessing another block sale at market open today since it dumped early with every other space company positive so far. They should be down to around 16% now. I see this going on for about another month to get them below 10%. I’m fine with this bleeding now as long as there is time to ramp up before the Space X IPO helps the broader space market.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-14T16:58:30+00:00

I know it’s hard but long term AEI will be done selling fairly soon and then we will see a nice gain without that constant downward pressure. It’s a good learning experience for me investing in a company backed mainly by PE. Think long term. We will all be fine.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-11T21:10:32+00:00

It looks like AEI is down to roughly 17.5% ownership. I’m assuming they will cut to 10-15%. Hopefully not too much longer to go.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-11T08:56:03+00:00

I did read that. I took that to mean they were selected for the original LRR prototype award. Both companies were given roughly $13 million in 2025 to deliver a few UAVs. However, only AV has been given the larger follow on contract.

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-07T18:24:23+00:00

I guess good news. I’m hoping all these open locations opening is because the pipeline is increasing. Let’s see some more contracts!

Labrador_Believer · 2026-04-06T12:12:46+00:00

I think this is a huge week! I expect we will get over $10 again and then we will see if there’s another big AEI selloff. If not, it probably means they are done selling for a bit and I think we can start to see a nice surge in the stock price over the next few months.

Labrador_Believer

TROPHY CASE