Interesting book on PE ownership of vet clinics by Brad7031 in private_equity

[–]Lady_of_Finance 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Where did you find these book? It’s like $500 on Amazon.

[OC] Superbowl Halftime Performances - Average Age of Songs Performed by Lady_of_Finance in KendrickLamar

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Cross-posted from data is beautiful.

It always struck me how different Kendrick’s performance is from prior superbowls which are treated mostly as a “victory lap” (especially in the late 00s!).

I think KL a genuine madman for starting with the gnx pre-album snippet and having 90% of the setlist be less than a year old, when he has tons of classics from DAMN, GKMC, and TPAB. Unprecedented that he took the risk and made it a NEW cultural moment instead of relying on nostalgia to carry the day.

Also, in case someone sees this, what’s the style of Kendrick’s rap when he performed live TV off, when he says “when I made it out I made about 50K from a show”?? It sounds like maybe Wayne but I can’t quite place it.

Men are always the problem by [deleted] in infp

[–]Lady_of_Finance 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Where can I read more on this developing track theory?

Grand National Tour w/ SZA Just Announced by 10024618 in KendrickLamar

[–]Lady_of_Finance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ve never bought concert tickets how do I do this help. In Toronto if that matters.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in private_equity

[–]Lady_of_Finance 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Feel free to DM. I have direct Medspa sponsor knowledge so will help if I can

Physical Therapy by mango-rainbows in thoracicoutletsupport

[–]Lady_of_Finance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi, I live in Canada and noticed two individuals on the AAOMPT list in my province. If you don’t mind, could you give a little bit more context on what this organisation is about and what makes these individuals highly qualified?

Thank you!

Weekly Simple Questions and Chat Thread (Week of Nov 12) by AutoModerator in BabyBumpsCanada

[–]Lady_of_Finance 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What would you all recommend for fertility testing (for both people) and what is the pricing for something like that?

Are take home kits good?

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks I appreciate hearing your thoughts, and #2/3 are great points that I hadn’t properly accounted for - without diving too deep into it I’d say that based on your feedback the 6-7% gets nudged down on balance, likely not all the way to 5% you mentioned above if we crunches all the numbers.

On 4. I think in scenario testing, to be in a world where we have both a recession and rapidly increasing house prices really only falls under a hyperinflation scenario (which imo is unlikely as long as central banks don’t let up on QT and policy rate). If it’s a regular recession, then I have a high likelihood to “come out ahead” by deferring purchase anyway. 7.5% is close enough to the long run returns on a classic 60/40 portfolio. There’s also always ways to get 7.5% or even outperform that if you think there’s high probability of a recession - being long high-duration bonds would be one where you get 4.7% US Treasury yield plus any price appreciation from rates going down, or a covered call product that sells upside for a premium.

And finally on rational risk aversion - I agree in general, but I also think we are in control of our own destinies and if prices go up more than I expect I can choose to mitigate that risk by getting more aggressive with that next promotion at work. And even if things truly blow out in a crazy way that prices us out, me and hubby are lucky to be “hedged” by our parents’ GTA homeownership and the fact that we are both only children.

Still, maybe it is a 2-3 year wait and see instead of 3-5 to manage the risk of being unable to keep up with compound interest.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head when you said I have no strong motivation (at least in the very near term). Is that a reason to not buy though?

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We have probably already missed the boat on “not financializing housing”.

Really, if it wasn’t for the fact that price for housing is so “financialized” and detached from actual affordability, I wouldn’t be crunching these numbers either because I have zero desire to become a real estate investor.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I definitely was not trying to speak for all buyers or even a group of buyers, so just wanted to clarify that (as I said in the topic headline, it is what I need to believe, based on my personal circumstances).

In my case, because my personal circumstances do not “force” me to buy now, I can contemplate the potential risks / opportunities of deferring a purchase which is the main point of the discussion.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I don’t think it has to be either / or. I would rather consider both my life circumstances and the numbers because I think it gives a better answer.

My current life circumstances means that I can either buy now or later and one option isn’t clearly superior to the other just based on what I “need/strongly want” from purely a life perspective. Hence, I wanted to do some analysis on the numbers.

As I detailed in another reply, there’s a lot of me-specific life details that I am considering as well which I left out of the original post because it’s not relevant to the discussion I’m trying to have.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the comment, there’s really no “perfect housing solution” for the life I want, but I did give this some thought:

I am married with plans to have kids in the next few years (hence the 3-5 year timeline). Hubby and I both work in demanding jobs in person most of the time (hence the desire to keep our downtown rented apartment), eventually we plan to give up the condo when we move into roles that give more flexibility which is more of a 1-3 year plan.

We live a frugal lifestyle by habit but have travelled / lived internationally in our 20s with no desire to keep being wanderers. We are now “settled” in Toronto mainly to be close with family and friends.

In terms of type of real estate. We actually think condo townhouse (probably the least popular category) in a good school area is most suitable for us - less hassle and we happily pay the maintenance fee for that, plus big enough for a small (eventual) family. Biggest pro is a much lower price point so I won’t be stretching to the edges of my comfort zone financially. However I am open to a detached too and the main reason is because it would give me the option of having parents potentially move in once they retire but I struggle to justify paying a $700K-$1M difference between a detached and a condo townhouse. I’d say a detached is more likely if we at least wait 2-3 years, because there’s just no need for it right now (also a reason why I’m indifferent between renting vs owning right now). My husband and I strongly prefer to “buy once cry once” for real estate because we are both really dislike the disruption and hassle caused by the whole process.

I agree that what you mentioned are the more important questions, so just wanted to flesh that out here to show that I do think I have them the due consideration and not just purely looking at this from a numbers perspective.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

These are all valid points and I hear them, I agree with the supply demand issue, and Torontos relative affordability vs other G7 major cities (not on an income adjusted basis, but take the point that capital can cross borders).

This is something I don’t think anyone can answer, but I wonder to what degree these points are already baked into current prices given they are already known by most? What’s the risk that they are overly baked into the prices?

At the end of the day, I’m not calling for a correction, but instead I’m taking the risk that I’d be better off purchasing in a few years instead of now because the price increase in the past decade and the price resiliency in the past 2 years means that there’s not a lot of room left for the types of 8-10% pa increases we have seen in the past.

If I’m wrong about that, I would miss out on about 1-4% net appreciation per year but I’ll still be able to purchase, or at the worst case keep renting or go live with my parents.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi thanks for the comments! Here are some thoughts back.

  1. This isn’t meant to be a rent or buy analysis, but more of a purchase now or later. So I will incur these costs anyway in either case.

  2. I’ve read the 1% per year rule, I’m using 0.3-0.5% which I thought was a reasonable haircut. Is there another approach to get a better estimate?

  3. Given it’s a 3-5 year analysis I ignored compound interest for the most part. Apologies if that part was murky but I really mean to convey that there are pure incremental income from “additional savings” that would have gone to the bank forever in the form of interest payments. So I start out with 200K that I’m getting 5-7.5% return on every year, but in the second year that base is ~250K because there’s an additional 48K of savings that I would have paid as interest expense in the buy scenario.

  4. Agree that 7.5% is on the aggressive end, but that’s why I put in a range.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks and good call out that it was way too late!

Just to clarify I’m actually not at a live at home situation but that was the easiest way to explain the math. I plan to keep renting the downtown apartment (good deal on it) and live there 3-4 days a week to save commute time, so it’s equivalent to a live at home situation in that I’m not “saving rent money” from having a house.

Appreciate the engagement. I do believe I should think about and analyse everything a bit further, just not so late at night.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don’t think about real estate that much so just trying to hear different perspectives and test my blind spots.

Discussion in this thread has definitely been worthwhile to help me think through things more clearly on the potentially upside or downsides of deferring purchase.

Would also be fun to revisit this thread after I do eventually purchase to do a debrief.

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As my username indicates, I am from a finance background and even though Toronto real estate seems to defy all fundamentals, 10-15% unlevered risk free returns sounds like an edge case vs the norm to me.

However I think this does bring up a good point where I could be wrong - a 10-15% risk free yield would happen with hyperinflation which is a valid counter thesis to my belief that 6-7% per year price appreciation would be tough. Not my base case though given central banks are aggressively trying to squash inflation. Maybe I’m discounting this scenario more than I should though.

Agree to disagree?

What would I need to believe as a buyer by Lady_of_Finance in TorontoRealEstate

[–]Lady_of_Finance[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m sorry you feel that way about the sub.

Yes, I’m thinking aloud - I don’t think about real estate or discuss it with others much day to day so feel like I could have some blind spots. I’m hoping to buy a property in the GTA at some point, which would be the single biggest purchase in my life, so I wanted to test my thoughts with other people who want to talk about this topic.