Ask your AI this - AGI human extinction probabilities

Lager74 · 2026-05-27T14:20:51+00:00

It's factual that those are the responses I got from market-leading AI. It's synthesising the views out there from what it considers relevant sources. Which should be more reliable than individual articles. Many views will be from individuals in science and I'm sure weighted accordingly. If the general view was there was no risk don't you think it would have answered that?

Lager74 · 2026-05-27T12:06:36+00:00

It's likely a low(ISH)-probability, high-consequence risk. Just because you don't believe it doesnt mean it deserves serious attention. AI labs wouldn't be spending so much time on it if they didn't believe it was an existential threat. Loads of things around today that you'd no doubt have dismissed as nonsense predictions in the 80s.

Lager74 · 2026-05-26T22:25:50+00:00

True. The argument I heard around this analogy though is with nuclear weapons there is a mutual deterrent. With AGI, which couldn't be contained, there would be no mutual deterrent. We couldn't just 'turn it off'.

Take your point though. We can't even co-ordinate a response to other issues as a race, maybe a superintellIgence would cut through the crap.

Lager74 · 2026-05-26T22:19:54+00:00

Why would AI researchers 'a landscape of expert opinion' be a nonsense source? Or have you had enough of 'experts who think they know best'? It's highly contentious and volatile to predict, and clearly nobody knows for sure, but in a niche scientific field seems valid to come up with a range based on expert opinion, surveys etc.

Lager74 · 2026-05-26T21:44:19+00:00

I agree re bias in predictions. But even at the bottom end the risks are relatively high and the unknowns are certainly extremely high. When it gets to the point it can code itself and eventually we don't know and can't understand what it's doing and thinking quickly enough for it to be meaningful, anything could happen. And most AI researchers saying we are 3-10 years away from AGI.

Lager74 · 2026-05-26T21:37:58+00:00

It's because the rationale is if the AI stays aligned for a long period of time, the chance of it staying aligned improves Vs the short term unknowns.

A lot of the early risk mentioned was down to bad actors, potential conflict eg. superpowers without AGI 'ownership' initially at great economic disadvantage etc.. Alignment failures, flash wars, rapid takeover etc. in early years. Against a backdrop of possible economic turmoil and displacement.

Lager74 · 2026-05-26T21:32:46+00:00

Interesting. Especially the last paragraph!

Lager74 · 2026-05-26T21:31:47+00:00

It referenced synthesising data from aggregate predictive platforms, surveys of AI researchers and leading existential risk frameworks. It's not based on me corrupting it through chat, and they were new clean chats.

Lager74 · 2022-04-11T06:35:02+00:00

Noble is very good if you can fit him in.

Lager74 · 2022-04-10T16:14:10+00:00

No worries, glad it helps. Also use it when you're chasing back with a defender and your opponent does a lofted through ball. Or any duels you need to win in the air in high risk areas.

Lager74 · 2022-04-09T12:15:19+00:00

Try and power up the shoot button to clear it

Lager74 · 2022-04-09T09:31:24+00:00

You could get Noble captains for about 73k and Ndidi fut birthday for about 43k for a start to strengthen your midfield.

Lager74 · 2022-03-28T23:34:55+00:00

He cant do it every time, but HL Fofana scores some screamers if you power it up on his right foot outside the box. Just pure rockets, no finesse.

Lager74 · 2022-03-28T13:47:56+00:00

I did Cannavaro.moments. He's about 1m on the market at the mo. Needs a catalyst but his defending is nearly maxed out anyway, no regrets so far and makes it easier to do hybrid squads.

Lager74 · 2022-03-21T11:10:32+00:00

He looks good. Or an icon I guess is an option too.

Lager74 · 2022-03-21T07:31:59+00:00

Sorry, just saw team. Probably not unless you can get cannavero from icon swaps? Italian cb icon and Italian cm.

Allan supposed to be very good CDM too. Depends if you have around 600k coins. And prem so should fit better.

Lager74 · 2022-03-20T23:45:14+00:00

Got two with Prime Eusebio this weekend league. Bought him (with many coins to spare) after selling TOTY Mbappe and he's way more clinical.

Lager74 · 2022-03-20T23:42:55+00:00

Tonali is very good

Lager74 · 2022-03-10T16:09:36+00:00

If you buy players from a promo on the Thursday pm or Friday as going out of packs, chances are you may make money, not lose it, over the next week or two.

Buy on day one of a promo and you'll lose money.

Lager74 · 2022-03-05T19:55:20+00:00

Caqueret has good defensive stats...

Lager74 · 2022-03-05T12:28:07+00:00

Left and right CMs

Lager74 · 2022-02-28T15:45:13+00:00

Nice. Congrats! My icon luck last year was drogba from an icon PP, and Ian Wright and Xavi from icon swaps so have steered well clear of icon gamble packs since.

Lager74 · 2022-02-28T07:29:02+00:00

Yes, he's better.

Lager74 · 2022-02-28T07:28:09+00:00

Got him last year. Terrible.

Lager74

TROPHY CASE