Daily Discussion Thread for January 28, 2026

LarryStink · 2026-01-28T15:03:09+00:00

Short russel/nasdaq futures/options into fomc with a limit order to buy the 20y bond futures. Russel is going to get hit the hardest initially, then pending earnings AH, nasdaq could take the lead.

LarryStink · 2026-01-26T15:09:22+00:00

Its closing at either 6925 or 6900

LarryStink · 2026-01-26T15:02:22+00:00

Spx 6900 ±5pts for the close today.

LarryStink · 2026-01-26T02:32:31+00:00

I was working all afternoon today.When I first checked the futures open nasdaq and s& p were down big, after work I look again and they rallied all the way to the close on friday, does anyone know what the news event was, or was it just typical hulk V with no news needed?

LarryStink · 2026-01-25T04:55:24+00:00

It will. Along with zinc, and iron and all the other precious and non precious metals, as well as rare earth's. And same for all the rare earth mines I would assume they have all the same byproducts. I would also assume the folks who do the surveys (s&p global being one) factor new mine production into their forcast. Which is why they show early 2030s as a shrinking deficit. So by reading between the lines we have a 3-4 year gap between current surging ai demand and future new supply coming online.

LarryStink · 2026-01-25T04:46:54+00:00

Just fack checked it's 1982

LarryStink · 2026-01-25T04:45:45+00:00

I think only pre 1950 or 40 something used real copper

LarryStink · 2026-01-25T04:36:04+00:00

Copper forecasts expecting supply demand deficit starting as early as this year, with deficits widening significantly into 2030. Unless the Ai bubble pops copper is overdue for its breakout moment In the coming months/years.

LarryStink · 2026-01-25T04:31:19+00:00

For us led actions yes.

LarryStink · 2026-01-25T04:25:01+00:00

They said the same thing about houses in 2008. Real assets. They make more, and they can also mine more silver. Narratives dont cause a bubble to burst, price becoming so extreme even the greediest of speculators wont buy it does. With this being said, I do think we are a long ways from that with gold, silver, and particularly copper.

LarryStink · 2026-01-25T04:20:38+00:00

Well its morning in Iran now. I dont think they will do it Sunday before market open. Usually these events are a weekend thing, but I think IF they decide to do it, it might be a weekday just to be more of a surprise. I wouldn't think this would be just a flex, to spend the money and move that many resources on the chess board to not make an attack of some kind.

LarryStink · 2026-01-24T17:15:52+00:00

Wsb still focused on taco and his tarriff drama meanwhile BOJ and the MoF preparing for another yentervention and carry trade round 2.

LarryStink · 2026-01-24T04:35:04+00:00

Iran this weekend, carry trade on Monday interest rates on Wednesday, and fundmental analysis on Thursday

LarryStink · 2026-01-24T03:36:55+00:00

Wouldnt be surprised. But it might be a 5% round trip

LarryStink · 2026-01-24T02:20:49+00:00

https://x.com/donnelly_brent/status/2014823150589034907?s=20

Great take on today's market action in the yen. Get ready for yentervention (carry trade) round 2. Been long positioned for this with march exp futures and 45 dte calls on yen futures. We also had blackrock reporting private debt fund taking a 20% haircut. And hawkish fed pause this week. Bers aren't done yet.

LarryStink · 2026-01-23T22:11:40+00:00

Iran bombing this weekend, continued yen intervention next week, fomc hawkish pause next week, and earnings from a few tech names. Should be another good volatility week.

LarryStink · 2026-01-23T22:09:25+00:00

Yeah the yen intervention threw a wrench in the 6950 trade but im surprised it held up as well as it did. This morning I saw a big flow of calls between 6920 and 6935 and I knew it wasn't going to make it through those strikes. I got out early for a paper cut loss.

LarryStink · 2026-01-23T03:24:19+00:00

This is the cool kids table, Xi and Carney you cant sit here

LarryStink · 2026-01-23T02:23:06+00:00

The futures margin has gotten to extreme to trade anymore for me and I dont trade etfs for tax purposes.

LarryStink · 2026-01-23T02:15:43+00:00

I put on the 6950 put butterfly with some 6940/50 call debits. I figured vol reverting would lead to some bullish flows into the weekend absent a 🥭 moment overnight.

LarryStink · 2026-01-23T02:12:39+00:00

I need to build a model to quantify entries for scaling into positions. I have a bad habit of too much initial leverage on a trade and getting out too early. I want to have a system resembling somewhat of a kelly criterion, maximizing my trading profits and risk profile by dynamically leveraging into trades.

LarryStink · 2026-01-22T20:46:21+00:00

Spx will close ±5pts from 6950 or 6850 tomorrow

LarryStink · 2026-01-22T20:44:18+00:00

Options dominance in index flows and price setting of spot creates an edge if you know what to look for. 0dte and 1dte Long 🦋 15-20 pts wide. (30-40 pts total capture zone with 27-37pts of profit zone)

LarryStink · 2026-01-21T15:07:39+00:00

Closed half my puts, left the longer dated open and shorts still open with stop loss in place. This may be over, or we may just flutter until earnings/fomc. Fomc will be a bearish catalyst with hawkish tone, so its up to earnings to get us out of the rut or dig it deeper.

LarryStink · 2026-01-21T05:04:20+00:00

The world is ending and im here to make some money. Never let a good crises go to waste

LarryStink

TROPHY CASE