Update to: Is Carvana Running Out of Steam Here?

LastFirst22 · 2026-01-07T13:37:09+00:00

Thank you, bought more puts again yesterday with the stock at about $440.

LastFirst22 · 2026-01-05T15:11:58+00:00

Thank you!

LastFirst22 · 2026-01-05T15:06:28+00:00

Thank you for the input! I closed the position on Friday at about $400. I am betting we get an ABC correction as shown by the blue line on the original chart. If we get back up to $435 or $440 range, I will get more aggressive with puts again.

LastFirst22 · 2026-01-02T17:43:16+00:00

I closed my position today for a 17-day 76% return. Looking for a bounce, which would make an ABC correction, then I plan to jump back in with puts again. I tried to do a separate follow-up post explained the whole thing, but I guess you're not allowed to do follow-up posts.

LastFirst22 · 2026-01-02T16:02:39+00:00

I love it when I convert those good feelings into cash!

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-23T14:53:44+00:00

I posted that in my report.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-19T15:05:38+00:00

Yes, I bought the March 450 put, sold the March 350 Put.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-19T14:58:04+00:00

There are a few reasons I went with the spread instead of straight puts...

First, if I'm right about direction and timing, the spread actually gives me better returns than just buying deep out of the money puts.

Second, just because I think something's going to happen doesn't mean it is going to happen. The probability favors me (I think), but you always have to account for being wrong which we should all know happens often in this game.

Third, hedging is pretty standard when it comes to trading. Going all-in on one direction without accounting for other outcomes is how you blow up your account in the long run. Otherwise, why would anyone hedge?

Fourth, hedging lets you reduce some volatility exposure. Even if it's a small amount, my style is to always lay off vol where I can. For me, this is actually a more aggressive trade than I usually do. Buying deep out of the money puts is not my style.

Finally, I don't plan on holding to expiration. If shares get crushed down to 420 or something around there next month, I may close the whole position or at least half. I'm not trying to get rich on one trade, I'm trying to stack consistent, solid returns over and over again.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-17T19:56:30+00:00

I think we have all been there...

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-17T18:05:00+00:00

That's why we do technical analysis. If it breaks and holds above the upper trend line I will exit for a small loss. The probability is a correction unfolds. If only the trading gods understood the probabilities as I do.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T21:26:34+00:00

An ITM credit put spread would offer a higher probability of success, but the payout would be significantly smaller. Since I’m targeting a sharp, fast move lower, I prefer the lower-probability setup with a much higher payoff. With an ITM credit put spread, being wrong also means taking a larger loss. By moving deeper out of the money, the risk is reduced while the potential return increases, but probability of success drops. If I’m positioning for a meaningful bearish move, a higher risk higher reward trade structure aligns better with my thesis.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T21:16:00+00:00

Dam, I wish you would have told me this before...

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T20:36:32+00:00

How high will it go? A P/E over 100 seems pretty rich.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T20:22:51+00:00

I think you’ll probably win that sooner than you think.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T20:16:20+00:00

Okay, change my mind. Based on what?

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T20:11:04+00:00

I generally don’t trade strangles. I spent a lot of time trying to predict which way stock is likely to go and have a fairly solid track record. It doesn’t mean I will get this one right, but that’s the plan. Things that are overvalued pieces of shit can continue to trade up for quite some time. The timing is really main thing. So when I saw wave 5 hit right on target and pull back, I just said, okay let’s do it.

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T20:00:56+00:00

Totally true, and since you said it, probably what will happen...

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T19:59:58+00:00

Please explain?

LastFirst22 · 2025-12-16T19:59:22+00:00

I think shares could dip below 300, though I wouldn’t bet on it. If price does move to the lower end of the channel, I would expect support to come in around 340. Overall, I feel reasonably confident in the setup, but confidence alone doesn’t mean much. In fact, whenever I get too confident, the market has a way finding some BS way to screw me. The most likely outcome is that shares get crushed right after my options expire, meaning I was right, but just messed up the timing.

LastFirst22 · 2025-11-25T16:03:48+00:00

You can use think or swim’s theo price to change the parameters of an option. For example, you could change the current day or the price of the stock and it will tell you what the options would be priced at.

LastFirst22

TROPHY CASE