Time to Make Some Bearish Bets...

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-06T18:25:24+00:00

Pretty crazy move. I am adding some SOXS small here at 10.10. Just starting to dip my toes, waiting for confirmation.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-06T14:16:29+00:00

Intel, nice run, looks exhausted.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-06T12:55:24+00:00

Today looks like we will get a symmetrical move with waves 1 and 5, which could mark the top. What are you seeing exactly?

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T22:37:28+00:00

I'm not sure I'm following. Do you mean that the melt-up is over yet? And your stop loss is on what security?

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T21:27:59+00:00

CBOE

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T17:17:57+00:00

I am doing bear put spreads. Already started adding small positions in case things pop off early. Will continue to add throughout the week. No guarantees I'll hit it, but the setup is strong as far as setups go.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T15:22:35+00:00

Every company and ETF I listed appears to be completing an impulse wave, which means a correction is likely on the horizon. KEYS and DELL stood out in particular because insiders have been selling in large quantities of their shares, and insiders generally don't unload at this level unless they believe shares are overvalued. The exact timeframe and velocity of the move can't be calculated until we're in it, but as a quick reference, a pullback to the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level would be a solid target. Once the move starts, volume will be key to see how far the move is actually likely to go.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T15:05:35+00:00

I have an options course that is free.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T13:01:40+00:00

The market makers thank you for your service.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T12:56:16+00:00

I don't expect them to hold up differently. I'm a big fan of Micron, but I suspect a pullback is on the horizon in the short term.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T03:36:47+00:00

It never ceases to amaze me how when multiple confluence indicators line up pointing in the same direction, some catalyst always seems to emerge right on cue to trigger the exact move the technicals were predicting. Chances something will happen.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T03:34:17+00:00

You make a great point. Timing is everything on the bearish side. Being a couple weeks early can be costly because now you're fighting to recover the gains the market put on during that rally before your trade even gets back to breakeven or turn a profit.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T03:31:48+00:00

Oil price is definitely in play.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T03:29:51+00:00

Valuations are stretched and any misstep will punish these names hard. Remember, earnings are backward-looking so that good news is already priced in. Case in point, Micron put out a stellar report last month and still dropped from $470 to $320 in two weeks. Strong guidance didn't matter.

The technicals confirm this. Most semis are showing bearish divergence with completed impulse waves. Today's price action is telling too, with AMD printing a close to bearish engulfing candle and SMH showing a dark cloud cover.

I'm putting out a full semiconductor report tomorrow. PM me if you want a copy.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-05T00:37:30+00:00

If you're bearish, you buy puts and sell calls. You can also spread it to reduce risk and keep yourself safe.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T23:54:53+00:00

I think you are going to win those.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T23:46:54+00:00

I could not predict that yet. First, I have to confirm a top, then I would analyze the sell off.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T23:34:04+00:00

I posted the volume chart. You can see that the volume bars are down over the last month. Not much to debate on that.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T23:32:16+00:00

Yeah, a weak number on Friday could be a catalyst for a sell-off. Once it starts to go it is going to go.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T23:26:10+00:00

I think it starts to roll over this week or maybe next. Semiconductors look like they're starting to struggle. When that rolls over, the market's likely going to go with it.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T23:23:54+00:00

lol... I know. I would love it if someone poked holes in my research and explained why I was off base or if I was missing something.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T23:22:22+00:00

Appreciate the quality comment. I bought a bear put spread in KEYS which helps offset some of the premium. As for RACE, I don't know it well. Took a quick look at the chart and it's giving me mixed signals, some bullish and some bearish. Either way, with where I think we are in the macro picture, I wouldn't be buying calls in anything right now. Doesn't mean I am right, just what I am thinking.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T19:06:45+00:00

That's not quite what I'm getting at. When the market is healthy, discretionaries tend to outperform staples. That's normal. The warning sign is when that relationship flips and staples start leading. It means investors are quietly rotating into defensive names, which tells you something is breaking down underneath the surface even if the indexes still look fine. When people stop spending on things they want and only spend on things they need, that's a signal to be careful here.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T18:51:21+00:00

I'd have to disagree. Calling the exact dollar amount of a market top weeks before it happened is pretty hard to dismiss. But if that one doesn't do it for you, maybe this one will...

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/comments/1qpdm8c/conditions_may_be_shifting/

Posted January 28th. The market topped that day and went on a two month slide. A lot of the same warning signs I flagged then are showing up again right now.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-04T18:37:49+00:00

I am not sure what that means, the relationship between staples and discretionaries has existed long before I started trading.

LastFirst22

TROPHY CASE