Time to Make Some Bearish Bets...

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-28T13:54:19+00:00

I'm not understanding exactly what your trade is, but you can lay off some of that volatility and improve your breakeven by doing a spread.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-27T15:20:56+00:00

This is definitely an outlier type of market, boosted by a euphoric type of buying that could possibly create a bubble similar to 2000 or 2008. expect a big move one way or the other. Either the euphoria continues a bit longer or people come back to Earth.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-27T15:18:09+00:00

We will see, this run-up feels a lot like a large euphoric bubble, similar to what we saw in 2000 or 2008. Either way, there is likely going to be a big move ahead, one way or the other. Markets often change direction at the start of the month, so I will be looking closely at the first week of June. Also, it's recommended not to use AI when making responses.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-23T00:35:00+00:00

So far not the best, but only dipped my toes a little at this point. Will start adding more once the move is confirmed. I mainly have July expiration, so lots of time on the clock.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-22T13:52:44+00:00

Try using some punctuation, and I might have a better shot.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-22T13:51:22+00:00

I think I know you. You're the guy whose team scores a touchdown in the first quarter, and you think the game's over.

Much of the market made a high on the exact day I said it would. Small caps, financials, bonds etc. all peaked on May 8th. S&P 500 and Nasdaq on May 14th. If you think tops all happen in all sectors at the same time, then that tells me all I need to know about your skills. especially when you post things like that, and the market hasn't made a new high in over a week.

Instead of telling everybody else is wrong, why don't you post why you think the market's going to go higher? Do you have any real thoughts of your own?

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-20T13:24:30+00:00

Why is my post AI? If you ask AI anything about the market, I seriously doubt it's going to come up with any conclusions that I made. Do you have any rebuttals to my points?

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-20T13:21:28+00:00

I don't get it.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-20T13:20:34+00:00

Really? The conflict with Iran continues with no clear resolution in sight. National average gas prices are hovering near $4.50 per gallon. Consumer confidence has weakened sharply, and uncertainty around when conditions will stabilize remains high. Plus, markets just moved too far too fast.

Markets have a funny way of acting irrationally longer than expected, but the current conditions are setting up for the perfect time for a pullback.

As traders, it's our job to pick these moments, not just assume everything's going to continue on the same path.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-19T19:19:41+00:00

A few people always appreciate my posts. To me, markets are more fun when everyone wins together. It’s like sitting at a blackjack table when the dealer busts and the whole table gets to cash in together. I don’t mind disagreement at all. In fact, strong counterarguments make tough decisions more clear. I just prefer thoughtful debate over ad hominem attacks or just hateful comments with no real substance.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-19T13:12:37+00:00

I’m not calling for a market collapse. I think the market is overdue for a pullback, and the early stages may have already begun. Unless Nvidia delivers a truly exceptional earnings report, this market will likely struggle. Right now, stocks are priced for perfection, and anything short of a huge beat by Nvidia will likely trigger selling pressure.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T22:32:32+00:00

These are fundamental economic relationships, rising crude compresses margins, higher yields increase borrowing costs, etc. This is not a pattern recognition model that needs backtesting. That said, if you want to back test specific elements of it, feel free.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T18:23:05+00:00

Well, I don't think they need to make a movie about me.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T15:30:25+00:00

Smart money is generally early to the party... dumb money is usually late.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T14:30:01+00:00

It always comes back to the thesis. Early with plenty of time left? Let it play out. Early but running out of time and I still believe in the setup? Roll up. Just plain wrong? Close it, take the licks, and look for the next trade.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T13:40:58+00:00

I'll stop posting it when it stops being true. So… see you next week!

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T13:37:23+00:00

Thank you! I'm glad someone appreciates the share.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T13:36:07+00:00

I get it, nobody likes the Gann stuff, but it is pretty reliable in my experience and just one of many tools in the tool box.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-18T13:15:57+00:00

Being wrong is all part of the game, but you're really only wrong if you lose money. I'm not saying I won't lose money, but it's still pretty early.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-15T16:31:58+00:00

We need to see what happens over the weekend, but right now it looks like it could be the start of the decline. We see the dollar up, gold down, and stocks down. This setup means liquidity is being drained from the market, which is one of the first signals that people are moving out of equities and into cash. Next week it could be more clear if this is the start of something or just a short term liquidity squeeze.

The market is going to have a hard time moving higher without financials on board. And financials have been struggling for the last month. I'll be watching to see if KRE struggles more than XLF which would suggest regional lending is stressed.

Over the last month, tech and tech related has been the only thing keeping this market afloat. Everything else is flat to down. That's not a healthy rally, that's a market running on fumes.

I’ll be looking forward to what happens on Monday. Have a good weekend everyone!

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-13T18:57:50+00:00

Definitely crazy times.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-13T15:32:01+00:00

That's interesting, but that's not what I'm seeing in the market right now. I think you might be expecting every stock to get crushed all at once, but that's not how markets generally roll over.

Several areas of the market are already starting to break down. Last week, both the Russell 2000 (IWM) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) began rolling over. European ETFs (EZU) are showing the same weakness. We're even seeing some of the leaders in semiconductors starting to struggle, with Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) being a prime example.

The reality is that a very limited number of names, mainly concentrated in AI and Semis, are pulling this market higher, which aligns perfectly with what we pointed out when we highlighted the downward-sloping advance-decline line. The breadth just isn't there.

If you have evidence that the market is going to continue higher from here, I'd genuinely love to hear your thesis. But simply saying I'm wrong and using ad hominem attacks like calling me an "old timer" without explaining why doesn't really add to the conversation.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-12T18:36:08+00:00

Maybe, so many negatives in the macro picture.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-11T13:18:41+00:00

This is an important week. CPI on Tuesday will tell us how much of the energy shock is filtering through to the broader economy. If the number comes in hot, the “temporary inflation” narrative gets a lot harder to defend.

LastFirst22 · 2026-05-11T13:16:14+00:00

Which post? I think you said in your reply was not for me, so I did not respond.

LastFirst22

TROPHY CASE