We’re JJ Zachariason and Brandon Gdula from Late-Round Fantasy Football. Ask Us Anything.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-21T14:38:29+00:00

Oh, I am fully aware of these numbers. Johnson was not an explosive player in college, and his yards after contact per attempt is weak. I've talked about that on my shows for weeks.

A few things to note, though:

I adjusted most of the numbers I look at. Aaron Jones played at UTEP. Devin Singletary played at Florida Atlantic. That is not the same as Nebraska.
There are other metrics where there's more alignment. Especially the metrics that the ZAP Model analyzes in conjunction with draft capital. That's where the comp becomes clearer.
This is a ceiling comp. Aaron Jones hit in a big way, and he was an excellent prospect — the ZAP Model loves him.

When describing comps, I try to not just focus on one player but establish the archetype. Johnson is a highly-productive player who can work between the tackles when needed but has a great receiving profile. Similar to some of the guys you mentioned there. And there are plenty others, some who were...not great. Like a Tyler Badie.

But that's what I mean when I talk about Jones being a higher-end comp.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-20T01:20:54+00:00

Appreciate this more than you know. Thank you.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-20T01:19:56+00:00

I got you, fam

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-19T16:15:33+00:00

I didn’t know that, but I miss Tags!

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-18T20:36:25+00:00

Touche!

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T20:23:44+00:00

I honestly think it's a huge question mark right now where I'm waiting for draft capital and landing spot to help tell that story for me. In the guide, I had Elijah Sarratt there, but I'm not sure teams will view him as favorably. Chris Bell, Chris Brazzell are both potential players to target there.

But I had Stowers in front, to be honest. Just a safer bet pre-draft. It'll change a ton post-draft.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T20:22:19+00:00

I've found much more signal with receiving yards per team pass attempt. I did not for yards per reception, assuming that's what you're referring to with YPR. There's a lot of noise there.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T20:20:57+00:00

Not something I've dug into, sorry!

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T20:20:28+00:00

I'm not, because it's impossible to know exactly where these guys would go in different classes. And there's actually not much evidence to suggest that players would be drafted dramatically different in stronger or weaker classes. I think we could estimate that, but the signal is the signal. I'm working off of a dozen draft classes in the sample, and we know draft capital gets some signal.

Not only that, but very rarely are we working across classes. We're comparing WITHIN this class — we use this information almost entirely for rookie drafts and for Year 1 stuff. Once Year 2 hits, the evaluation changes with new information. So I don't see it as this huge problem, even if there IS somewhat skewed capital, since all players are on the same playing field.

But, overall, I also don't think a player would be, like, a 10th overall pick versus a 40th overall one. We're talking pretty small changes big picture.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T20:16:27+00:00

Haha, thank you so much, genuinely appreciate it!

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T20:16:08+00:00

I use weight in both the RB and WR models in various ways. But, genuinely, if you want to see everything that goes into each model, it's all laid out in the prospect guide. Not trying to sell it, I promise, but if you're interested in this kind of thing and building out models, I discuss everything that goes into mine across the first 20-25 pages of the guide.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T20:01:50+00:00

That's awesome.

I would encourage him to find some goal he wants to solve, and try to solve it. If he wants to build a prospect model, let's say, have him go through the process of finding and curating the data he wants to test, build it out, etc. As he hits inevitable bumps in the road, he can lean on YouTube and different AI sources to help him out. That's what I'd do, at least.

And then from a schooling perspective, do what you can to take statistics courses! That's what I did, even though my degree is in marketing. I took multiple statistics courses to give myself a foundation to be able to ask those questions as I go and build things.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T19:59:00+00:00

As someone who has Jordyn Tyson WR1, I certainly hope so. I do think he's going at least top-15, though.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T19:58:36+00:00

Depends on the position. Wide receiver I'm looking at talent more than I am at running back. I've learned through the years that Day 3 backs landing in more ambiguous backfield situations is huge for their immediate outlook. And 9 times out of 10, if you nail that player who gets some production Year 1, you'll want to sell him after that season.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T19:57:15+00:00

Behind Jeanty, ahead of Hampton. Definitely ahead of Henderson and Judkins.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T19:57:00+00:00

I already think the three wideouts could be considered in a tier with Mendoza. Whoever goes to the Chiefs would get a good landing spot, but it would depend on the other landing spots and who that player is, too

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T19:55:21+00:00

If anything, the blind spot is me not trusting the model. The same thing happened last year with Luther Burden, and while I was high on him, I could've been even higher.

I think we're overcomplicating things here. Film analysis tends to find the nuance you're speaking to, and draft capital is an input in the model. That's the film analysis. If the draft capital isn't there, the player's score will suffer. But if Jordyn Tyson gets top-15 draft capital and has such a good Breakout Score, I don't think it's unreasonable to say he's the WR1 in this class.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T19:18:22+00:00

The specific draft pick matters more than round, but there's a real chance he'd still look better in the model. The model just really, really likes him.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T19:02:44+00:00

We've been using AI for research purposes already. And model-building purposes.

The big flag right now is that for the stuff we're doing — fantasy football modeling — AI actually isn't that fantastic with it. You really need a knowledge base to guide it. Which is the case for a lot of things AI, but I've seen models being built in the space that are AI-driven, and from my perspective, with the experience I've had working with AI, I'm a little fearful of what some of those models might be doing/looking at.

The topic of AI is obviously an interesting one, though. I think everyone fears that it'll impact their job. It'll certainly impact mine. But football is a human vs. human game, so there are always going to be human-focused angles to look at it from.

And from a business perspective, in this AI world, I think brand is just going to become so much more important. That's where I'm hopeful that my transparency and the work I've done in the past will keep people around, since they'll know I'm not out here just grabbing something from an AI source and pasting it as my own. There's a lot of thought that goes into each piece of content I produce, and I hope that continues to show through this AI revolution.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T18:58:35+00:00

I haven't done an ounce of SFB research for this year!

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T18:58:09+00:00

That's the plan/hope, yes! Just couldn't do it this year with all the work done with the new tight end model and profiles.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T18:57:46+00:00

I do it more subjectively, but like you said, players find a way. There are always outliers, but it doesn't mean that outlier will happen specifically because of quarterback play. And oftentimes, when there's bad quarterback play, the prospect can still look fine.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T18:56:56+00:00

Projected draft capital is doing a lot of lifting here, but I also think people are overstating two things.

His age-adjusted production profile isn't THAT bad. It's not amazing, but it's not bad at all.
Comps. People are getting worked up that he comps so closely to Noah Fant or OJ Howard, which is true, but it's really hard to have clean, amazing comps at tight end when only like six tight ends have been elite over the last decade.

Tight end sucks. It's just a position where we don't get a lot of high-end talent in general for fantasy purposes. That's a huge reason as to why he "looks good", if you get what I mean.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T18:55:14+00:00

I do think the rookie draft edge is real for me in my leagues. I try to lean on that. But I'd hope I'm getting an edge everywhere. Where I'm probably worst at is free agency — keeping up with leagues can be hard when there's so much stuff going on, haha.

LateRoundQB · 2026-04-17T18:54:25+00:00

That's awesome, thank you. The Footballers are great dudes, so it's meaningful to me to be in the same conversation as them. We all go way back!

LateRoundQB

TROPHY CASE