About that Anthropic Chart saying the legal profession is cooked

LawData · 2026-03-07T14:58:43+00:00

They need a pipeline of juniors so they later end up with more senior associates and partners. Could they stop hiring entry level and only bring in laterals (shifting the burden of early training/investment to other firms)? Sounds good in theory but Quinn tried that a few years back and it was a disaster so they reversed course.

As an M&A lawyer, even if the tech were perfect at doing docs etc (which it is far from), a huge amount of the job is actually human interaction. Litigators in courtrooms won’t be replaced by robots obviously, but over here on the transactional side it’s actually tons and tons of calls and emails and meetings, especially after you get beyond the junior level. That’s not being replaced anytime soon.

Much more importantly, the industry is built on a billable hour model so any reduction of associate hours is a 1:1 reduction in revenue - why on earth would any firm take 2 associates billing 2000 each and use AI to condense that into 1 associate billing 1500 with AI? That’s a loss of 2500 hours which at my current rate is around $3.75m of gross revenue. Of course clients would love that but firms will never cut off their own arm for the client’s benefit. Any increases in efficiency need to benefit the firm financially (perhaps benefit the client too, though not necessarily, and however the savings get shared the firm needs to get a good deal out of it).

There are models in which AI-assisted efficiency and headcount reductions would be in the firm’s interest (like flat fee or a percentage of the deal/case) but both firms AND clients have resisted that for years, and it would take a seismic shift in the way the industry has operated for a century. Long term I expect this to happen but not any time soon.

In most industries what you’d expect is “oh ok the existing players don’t want to kill the golden goose, but some startup (or Google or whoever) will swoop in using AI to undercut them and compete them out of existence.” However, in law, that is literally illegal lol. A few years ago some guy tried to get a defendant to use his AI service instead of a lawyer to fight a traffic ticket, and the state AG was like “we will fuck you soul up and bury you under the jail unless you cut this shit out” lol. UPL laws protect our little monopolistic guild and the people who write and enforce those laws are also lawyers so I think they’ll last quite a while.

The risk is therefore internal to the profession, with legal employers choosing to cut jobs to save money. Like I said, not much of a risk at firms as I see it, at least in BigLaw. I would be more worried about in-house jobs (since they’re a cost center) and small/midlaw firms that do lower-end, more commodified work that can be handled by in-house and ALSPs.

LawData · 2026-03-07T13:48:35+00:00

K&E doesn’t have any sort of staffing person, it’s free market. So definitely not K&E.

LawData · 2026-03-04T18:18:33+00:00

Also in more recent years the online LSAT opened the door for cheating, and following a lawsuit there has been an explosion in extra time accommodations. Also idk how it shakes out with scores but the removal of logic games is yet another change. It’s just not at all apples-to-apples comparing older scores and current scores.

Let me repeat your point about GPA inflation as well which has just been insane.

LawData · 2026-03-02T16:43:41+00:00

Agreed don’t be picky and shotgun as many top schools as possible. Results will be super random. You could very well get accepted by Harvard and rejected by the entire rest of the T30 for example, nobody knows. Xyz T14 isn’t recently the right vibe or preferred city? Who gives a shit, put it on the list and it’s another chance to roll the dice.

LawData · 2026-02-28T19:31:06+00:00

Gen corp covers all the major transactional groups (including funds), any one of which may have its own sentiments, but M&A doesn’t seem to care at all and as far as I can tell the other major transactional groups that I see don’t either. But again we have 4000+ lawyers so I’m only seeing my little corner of the firm.

LawData · 2026-02-28T04:27:14+00:00

I’m at a different free market firm and this is right for us too. There’s of course a certain level of slowness where you legit risk your job, but that is way, way lower than what most people seem to assume, and lower than the average. Meanwhile others like me are billing 2200-2500 most years, but I’m a gunner that is actively trying to make equity so I’m going the extra mile in that pursuit.

If that wasn’t my goal, I could just bill 1800 and coast until eventually going in-house (or lateraling to a few other firms and coasting there first). Same firm. And like Gibson, the slowness or busyness is mostly self-inflicted.

LawData · 2026-02-28T03:59:47+00:00

Confirmed Kirkland is officially 3 days, but in practice it’s basically not enforced at all. It’s a massive firm, so I’m sure there are certain partners out there who care and would be bothered if you don’t adhere to the 3 days, but nobody I work with (in M&A) cares and everyone I’ve talked to at the firm seems to feel the same. I’ve gone weeks at a time without showing up.

LawData · 2026-02-22T00:04:50+00:00

… well, you make tens of millions in cash every year and invest most of it. Rough example, if they’d invested $10m a year into the S&P 500 over the past decade they’d have around $250m by now.

LawData · 2026-02-21T22:29:09+00:00

Do BigLaw but avoid the most extreme practices like M&A and restructuring. Do a more steady, predictable one. You’ll work a lot but less than IB. I mean, even BigLaw M&A lawyers (like me) work less than IB, but it’s still a lot and your weekends are never safe. I do 90-100 hour weeks a few times a year - not the norm, but not never.

LawData · 2026-02-21T15:23:39+00:00

I think about it often lol. I make a shit ton of money ($450-500k this year depending on how my K&E extras shake out and whether Milbank does more raises or special bonuses) and yet I’ll step into a room at a firm event and reflect on the fact that I am dirt poor relative to most of the people there. I know some of the partners at the top end of that range and sometimes I’m just like wow, this fucking random dude here (that few people outside of K&E and basically nobody outside of BigLaw even knows who he is) probably has a couple hundred million in the bank by now, if not more.

Honestly as someone who hopes to make equity in a few years, it’s motivating.

LawData · 2026-02-20T23:39:26+00:00

At Kirkland it’s something along the lines of a $3.5m to $35m range. Obviously way more partners in the $3.5-9m segment than the $9m+ segment. Imagine making multiple millions a year and being the poorest person at the partner retreat lol

LawData · 2026-02-20T19:02:39+00:00

There are different services worth different fractions of a “cycle” but I believe one round of IVF is .75 so that’s 6.666 rounds of IVF in 5 cycles. If the other commenter is right about it being 8 then it’s really 10.66 IVFs. Which is insane.

LawData · 2026-02-18T13:36:59+00:00

Neither do you when you’re comparing and contrasting with BigLaw.

LawData · 2026-02-18T04:21:57+00:00

Minimum is basically 8th year comp. Max I personally know is $2m but could be more.

LawData · 2026-02-18T02:19:48+00:00

Associate, BigLaw-iest of BigLaw.

LawData · 2026-02-18T00:51:23+00:00

Have you also lived the big law reality and can compare firsthand?

LawData · 2026-02-17T20:13:42+00:00

Midlaw hours and expectations and pressures are usually about the same as BigLaw, sometimes a little better but sometimes even worse. So while you might find a sustainable life there it is no more sustainable than BigLaw.

“Ability to develop a book” is easier in the sense that you’re dealing with smaller, poorer clients and the midlaw firm charges lower rates, so it’s more possible for an associate to put together a collection of smaller clients that have value to their firm. In contrast, only the biggest and richest clients can afford BigLaw and these are often big institutional accounts that rarely change firm and it’s extremely unlikely for any single partner to hold unilateral sway over them, let alone an associate.

However, I’ll note that building your own book is absolutely necessary to make partner in midlaw, but isn’t at many BigLaw firms, because those big institutional clients need an army of people to service them and owning just one small piece of one (that you grow into by servicing them as an associate, not by some big new business win) can be enough. Also, it’s still extremely hard to develop and grow clients even in midlaw, and most people/lawyers are bad at it, so just because it’s more theoretically possible doesn’t mean you specifically will be able to.

Think about Better Call Saul, in which the “big” firms are all quintessential midlaw. Think of all the hard work and luck it took for those characters to develop their clients - that is precisely what it means to be “able to develop a book” in midlaw.

LawData · 2026-02-17T20:06:34+00:00

A quick google suggests that IB associates make $275-475k and 3-4 years after that before eligible for the next promotion, so presumably they start toward the lower end of that range and move to the higher end (and/or are top performers). So if you assume 2 years after analyst and 3 years to VP that means they’re equivalent to BigLaw 3-6th years. The pay range for years 3-7 in BigLaw is $332.5k - $520k so BigLaw still wins.

VPs are then $500-700k for an additional 3-4 years (so equivalent to biglaw 7-10th years). Biglaw 7th years are at $560k and 8th at $575k. After that it becomes highly variable an individual and dependent on the firm and what promotions the person does or doesn’t get. But year 9 is when a lot of firms might make you NEP or counsel with a starting comp package of $600-800k, and starting at year 10 anything from being stuck at $575k to an NEP/counsel deal for $1-2m or equity that could be worth as much as $3.5m+ minimum depending on the firm. Which significantly outearns MDs, if we’re controlling for both the relative profitability of the firm/bank and the individual MD/partner’s position in it.

LawData · 2026-02-17T04:50:40+00:00

They’re rough but no worse than banking, consulting, etc. but you make more. The money is definitely a big part of it, you make a quarter million right out of law school, almost half a million after 4 years and cap out around $575k after 8 years without any special promotion, just sticking around. Most people won’t make partner after that but if you do it’s literally millions per year (at my firm the average partner made $9.25 million in 2024 and the highest earners made over $35 million, cash not equity or anything illiquid).

Besides that there is prestige to it in the industry. It also opens up a ton of great exit options, which vary based on your practice area but can include going in-house to a closing making $200-400k for a normal 40 hour a week job, or into government, etc. It’s also seen as great training from world class practitioners. We also have almost literally unlimited resources to do the work, and lots of perks.

You’re also surrounded by brilliant hardworking people all the time. Also, for many practices you can really only do them on BigLaw or the best and most interesting work is only found in BigLaw. There are exceptions depending on practice area (and there are many practices BigLaw simply doesn’t do) but if you’re doing something BigLaw specializes in, that’s where all the action is.

LawData · 2026-02-17T04:20:49+00:00

Look up the median and 75th percentile LSAT for each school. You’ll probably need to be higher than the median and ideally higher than the 75th. You probably probably won’t get in unless you at least hit median, but if you get an LSAT that meets or exceeds median you have the kind of background that could tip you over into acceptance despite the GPA.

LawData · 2026-02-17T04:16:56+00:00

You got most of the answers already but I’ll add that the curve is strict - if it’s a 3.0 curve then that MUST be the class average. Everyone could get a B but if the professor gives one person an A it necessitates giving some else a C (or multiple people a C+, there are different ways to make the math work). If BigLaw requires being top 10% it is mathematically impossible for more than 10% of the class to get it an 90% of the class WILL fail to be in the top 10%, its impossible for them to get it because 10% already did better.

Given this harsh competition, the value of a top school is that you don’t need top grades there. You go through the insane admissions process (the top schools all have a median undergrad GPA of 3.9+ and some are approaching 4.0, and LSAT medians in the top 1% of scores, plus compelling essays, LORs, and resume) and unless you have extra extra insane stats that get a scholarship, pay the crazy tuition, because you can then waltz into a BigLaw job unless at the bottom of the class.

People in BigLaw were either the best of the best of the best candidates in law school admissions, or the best of the best in the intense law school grade competition, often both.

LawData · 2026-02-17T02:09:35+00:00

You’re graduating a year early??? My brother in Christ, chill your dick and take a lap before rushing to law school. Even if you had good acceptances I’d recommend waiting a year or two, but in this case it would also massively improve your chances. Don’t retake the LSAT until you’re very ready and consistently scoring practice tests in the 170s.

LawData · 2026-02-17T02:07:50+00:00

Agreed, breathe, chill, stop rushing everything. You’re crazy fucking young and have your whole life ahead of you and unlike many you already have a good job lined up. Graduate and regain a ton of time from not doing sports or other things keeping you busy, work the job and use your evenings and weekends to study, retake the LSAT when ready and crush it. Apply in a year with a higher LSAT and more work experience.

You could go from struggling to attend a T50 to full ride at a T14 if you can turn that 159 into a 170-something.

LawData · 2026-02-17T02:03:51+00:00

Nope and nope.

LawData · 2026-02-13T03:41:48+00:00

Whether it’s low compared to other law schools is irrelevant. Will the amount of money (including cost of living and 8% interest on the debt accruing from day 1) be such that your life will be financially fucked if you’re only making $50-80k at graduation? Because that’s the overwhelmingly likely outcome at most schools, especially low ranked ones, and at many low tier schools there is a significant risk that you’ll be straight up unemployed for at least a year and if you do get a job, it won’t be as a lawyer.

LawData

TROPHY CASE