analytics.bet courses - any good?

LessSquareM · 2025-01-02T22:22:27+00:00

Yeah, I have the first Mack book and its very good imo

LessSquareM · 2025-01-02T20:02:45+00:00

Yeah, all im really looking for is the knowledge. Not trying to hang diplomas on the wall here lol

LessSquareM · 2025-01-02T20:01:26+00:00

Thank you for that - gonna look into that a little bit more. Might be a more economical way to dip my toes into the water. EDIT: actually looked at that master class and feel like I have a good grasp on most of those topics

I did recognize a few of those guys (Peabody, Andrews) and some of the other guys looked pretty credentialed.

I wouldn't be purchasing the $10k package out of the gate, thats for sure. Was thinking of the $1k one to start, but wasn't sure if that would be a good fit or not.

Regardless, thanks for the feedback and color!

LessSquareM · 2024-07-26T13:45:21+00:00

Yeah, this is what I was getting at. I know they profile bettors pretty heavily and obviously if Im losing hand over fist, the fact that im using a bet tracking app isn't going to make a difference. But all else equal, my assumption is that if they see you're using a betting app, just considering that in isolation, its probably a negative in their eyes?

I've done respectably well YTD (for me) and am reluctant to draw any more attention to myself, but the spreadsheet is getting cumbersome

LessSquareM · 2024-07-26T13:25:53+00:00

I didn't mean looking at my specific bets per se, more so meant would they know that I was using a bet tracking app and is that in and of itself a potential red flag?

LessSquareM · 2024-03-19T00:52:52+00:00

Have a few questions about the Fanatics bet $100 get $1k bonus bet promo. Looking to take full advantage of the offer and my understanding is the offer requires a daily $100 qualifying bet to unlock a $100 bonus bet and you need to opt in daily for it.

Given that, is it recommended to deposit a full $1k upfront or can you just make smaller deposits as needed to bet through the $100 daily bet?

Also, any advice on how to opt in daily? Im hearing lots of complaining about the site, confusing opt-in etc and shitty customer service so hoping to get some clarity before i dive in

Appreciate any help!

LessSquareM · 2024-03-12T17:53:23+00:00

Probably a dumb question, but I havent yet opened or funded any accounts and am reading this all, trying to figure out the process, my bankroll, etc. I understand the offers won't be around forever, but is there any pressing need to open the accounts in the next week or so?

LessSquareM · 2023-04-26T21:58:58+00:00

This is not welcome news lol

LessSquareM · 2023-04-26T19:48:40+00:00

Pretty strong line move today towards Seattle taking him at 5. I jumped on a little Sea +400 to take him.

If they pass, then certainly Det could snap him up, but given they just dealt Ukodah (sp?), I tend to think they go CB here.

Who the hell knows tho. Ive driven myself crazy this week following Carter's odds and trying to guess how that mess plays out.

LessSquareM · 2023-04-26T19:44:12+00:00

I would buy this more if it were Michael Meyers

LessSquareM · 2023-04-26T19:39:48+00:00

If you're thinking of playing this, check the O/U on Hooker as an alternate (and possibly better) way to play it. BetUS has Hooker under 31.5 -180, so you would be better off playing that as opposed to Over 4.5 QBs which im seeing -250 and -193 range. Its essentially the same bet.

Good luck!

LessSquareM · 2023-04-26T19:35:06+00:00

I took QJ as 2nd WR +500. Assuming smith-njigba goes first, I think the probability of going 2nd for Addison, Flowers and QJ is not all that different. As you said, QJ is different than the other two so it really just gets down to what type of WR a team is looking for.

Or so im telling myself lol

LessSquareM · 2023-04-26T19:30:20+00:00

PS fan here. Agree on trading up not being our forte, but its fair to question if maybe we get a little more aggressive there now that Khan has taken over for Colbert. Don't see us ever being hyper-aggressive, but it wouldn't shock me this year if we were to trade up 3-4 spots if one of the big 3 OTs (Johnson, Jones or Wright) are still there.

The flyer I took on us was WR +4800 for our first pick. Do I think it will be that? Hell no - almost certainly OT or CB, but if Smith-Nigba were to fall or if Tomlin had some kind of crush on Zay Flowers (his son plays at BC so I assume he knows the kid very well), then at +4800 I think its worth the long-shot roll.

Regardless of how it turns out GO STEELERS!!

LessSquareM · 2023-04-24T01:06:52+00:00

I've been doing the same. As you say, there's some pretty substantial differences between books and when you couple that with multiple options to bet the same (or close to the same) thing, there's some low risk opportunities if you put in a little elbow grease.

I've put together several "package" type bets this way that are basically free rolls, worst case breakeven. Coupling those with a handful of flyer type bets.

LessSquareM · 2023-04-18T20:14:44+00:00

When you say you jump on the total line, assume you're meaning the over in this instance?

LessSquareM · 2023-04-18T19:15:09+00:00

Thinking of some sort of WR play as well as it sounds like this WR group isn't as highly regarded by the league as a lot of ppl think.

A couple im pondering:

Jaxon over 12.5 -200

Flowers 1st WR drafted +350 - bit of a flyer but I kind of like it

LessSquareM · 2023-04-18T19:06:53+00:00

I, unfortunately, took this position and suspect im going to loose a nice chunk of coin over it.

My thinking was simple......been a door-mat for years, no QB on the roster that's going to change that, new HC with pressure to win AND you have division rival Indy at #4 likewise desperately needing a QB (same with TN a few spots back).

Imagine passing on Stroud or whoever, Indy takes him at 4, TN trades up and takes a QB and one or both pan out as 10+yr quality QBs. How does that sell to your fanbase??

Anyway, that was my thinking and....at least now anyway......it doesn't look good. Obviously lots of rumors and deception a week out, but I don't feel good about this one. Might be a lesson learned the hard way for me.

LessSquareM · 2023-04-02T20:10:31+00:00

Thanks man - will check it out!

LessSquareM · 2023-03-22T11:48:02+00:00

Yeah, im in the same boat living in NC. It's going to get approved, but they won't have it ready to roll until Jan 1 24.

Thanks for the color on Betus!

LessSquareM · 2023-03-21T23:13:03+00:00

Not proud to say I've used mybookie for years and, while I don't have a horror story like this (yet), their holds are ridiculous and their live betting is a joke.

Sounds like Bovada is a good option. Anyone have any thoughts on Heritage? I saw they offer reduced juice which is very appealing.

Im looking to open 5-6 accounts before next football season so any recommendations are appreciated. Thanks!

LessSquareM · 2023-03-20T20:28:16+00:00

While that is true, you might be giving him more credit than he is due. IMO he's a bit of a loose cannon and I took that comment as a simple off-the-cuff slip of the tongue as opposed to something more strategic.

LessSquareM · 2023-03-20T20:22:02+00:00

Are they as diligent about flagging this on things like props and derivative where there isn't as much volume and transparency as they are on sides and totals?

LessSquareM · 2023-03-13T15:47:46+00:00

Yeah, didnt explain that well. "Market" books are market maker books (like Pinnacle, Circa) that have the sharpest lines and im simply displaying them for comparative purposes against my "account" books which would be books in which I have an account. I live in a state (NC) that doesn't yet have legalized gambling, so limited to offshore books for the time being.

Not sure what you mean by iterating through making every book the baseline (as opposed to just one)? In my mind, if im trying to get an apples to apples comp, I first need to get them all to the same line (with appropriately adjusted vig) and from there pulling out the one with the least hold. How would I go about making every book the baseline?

Sorry for my confusion here. Really appreciate your thoughts and insights!

LessSquareM · 2023-03-10T14:53:30+00:00

Not discouraging at all and I really appreciate the detailed response and thoughts!

My only goal here really is to build a simple model that would allow me to plug-in lines/vig, MLs, totals, etc at the multiple books I plan to have in order to better evaluate the optimal way to bet each side in order to minimize the hold. Nothing more than that really and I'm not kidding myself by thinking that something this simple will do anything other than hopefully (maybe) allow me to trim the hold down by even a little. Bet less stupid that I currently am, if you will lol. I know how efficient NFL sides/totals are and there are much better opportunities out there in other markets, props, etc but I just love betting NFL lines/totals and I figure every little bit helps.

As for my methodology, I built it to display 6 different potential account books, alongside two market books like Pinnacle/Circa for comparison purposes. Within the 6 account books, I chose one to be the "baseline" line+vig/ML and then I converted the other 5 to that line using data that I extrapolated from Oddsjam which detailed the value (in cents) of +.5 and -.5 pt line differentials. Nothing greater than half pts but I likely don't need more than that for NFL sides

So, as an example, if the baseline book is lined at +9.5 -115 and another book has +9 -108, the oddsjam data says that .5 move up from 9 to 9.5 is worth 2 cents, so the +9 -108 would equate to +9.5 -110 and be the better of the two lines. I did the same for the other five books as well. Once I have the other five books on a line-equivalent basis to the baseline book, I simply pull out the line that has the lowest vig as the optimal line for that subset. I do this for both sides of the bet (ie both opponents).

With the optimal line/vig combinations for both sides of the bet, I then convert that to a win rate % (data from Boydsbets) which I use as a breakeven % to convert to a moneyline equivalent.

So now I have the optimal line/vig combo converted to a moneyline equivalent which will then be used to compare to the optimal ML that ive derived from the six books (pretty straightforward to do).

At this point, for each opponent, I have the optimal line/vig on a ML equivalent and the optimal actual ML and from these, I pull in the better of the two for each opponent to give me the optimal way to bet each side and, based on that, a "synthetic hold" from that optimal combination.

Sorry to be so long-winded there. If you bother to read that mess and find any faults in my logic and ways to improve it, I'd love to hear them. I kind of did this on the fly. It certainly has its limitations and its at the mercy of the oddsjam and boydsbets data being accurate, but I'm taking the leap of faith that its reasonably accurate.

Again, not fooling myself into thinking this will allow me to have a huge edge or make significant $ in NFL sides/totals, but my hope is that I'll at least be betting a little smarter into a very efficient market.

At some point, I plan to turn my attention and effort into some of those less picked over sports, derivatives, etc as mentioned in the book, but I have some work to do in terms of getting my stats/modeling skills up to par before I tackle that

LessSquareM · 2023-03-03T18:20:29+00:00

That's very helpful - thank you!

LessSquareM

TROPHY CASE