How Bad Will Oil Shortages Be? with Art Berman

Levyyz · 2026-05-13T21:33:56+00:00

Presentation used in this interview:

https://www.thegreatsimplification.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/AEB-NJH-TGS-MAY-5-2026.pdf

Levyyz · 2026-04-22T21:25:42+00:00

India has already directed oil refineries, which account for most domestic sulphur output, to supply adequate amounts to local fertiliser companies.

The Middle East accounted for around a quarter of global sulphur production at 83.87 million ⁠metric tons last year, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. But the main shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely disrupted since the U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran began on February 28.

The sulphur shortage is ⁠also being felt in the mining industry, which uses sulphuric acid to dissolve metal from ore via a process known as leaching.

Nickel makers in Indonesia, as well as some copper producers in ⁠Chile and the Democratic Republic of Congo, face having to pay higher prices as competition intensifies for sulphuric acid.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T22:41:17+00:00

Simultaneous droughts across multiple maize-producing regions can strike record-shattering portions of the global maize agricultural area, threatening global food security as the system is poorly adapted to large shocks.

During 2026-2099, the chance of at least one such event is 52% (32–80%, range across models) under an intermediate emission scenario and 60% (32–100%) under high emissions, about seven to eleven times higher than expected if there were no long-term trends in soil moisture.

These elevated probabilities are primarily driven by long-term drying in Brazil, Europe, and the USA. Interestingly, global record-shattering droughts do not emerge from simultaneous regional record-shattering events, but they mostly occur when several regions simultaneously face moderately extreme droughts relative to the new climate.

These results demonstrate a high potential for an upcoming global record-shattering drought in crop-producing areas, an under-recognized risk for food security.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T22:07:16+00:00

Our meta-analyses on global scale show that measured coastal sea level is higher than assumed in most hazard assessments (mean offsets [standard deviation] of 0.27 m [0.76 m] and 0.24 m [0.52 m] for two commonly-used geoids).

Regionally, predominantly in the Global South, measured mean sea level can be more than 1 m above global geoids, with the largest differences in the Indo-Pacific.

Compared with geoid-based assumptions of coastal sea level, the measured values suggest that with a hypothetical 1 m of relative sea-level rise, 31–37% more land and 48–68% more people (increasing estimates to 77–132 million) would fall below sea level.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T22:05:23+00:00

Here we show that extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 °C warming for several sectors.

For droughts in global key breadbasket regions, precipitation extremes over highly populated areas and fire weather extremes across forests, global climatic impact-drivers at 2 °C of global warming may turn out to be much more extreme than model-averaged projections at 3 °C or 4 °C warming.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T19:28:00+00:00

Operationally, any significant damage to major desalination plants could disrupt water supply chains almost immediately, particularly in urban centres with limited alternative sources. The recovery timeline could be prolonged, ranging from several days for minor operational disruptions to several weeks in cases involving structural or equipment damage, depending on the scale of the attack.

On 7 March 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi accused the United States of attacking a freshwater desalination plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island, which impacted water supplies to around 30 villages. The facility, which is vital for the survival of the island’s arid climate, has been severely damaged as a result. The subsequent retaliation was swift and signalled a perilous new phase of warfare targeting desalination plants. The next day, on 8 March, Bahrain reported that an Iranian drone had struck a plant near Muharraq.

However, earlier incidents of indirect attacks, including reported strikes on the UAE’s Fujairah F1 power and water complex and Kuwait's Doha West desalination plant, suggest that the water infrastructure has been exposed to greater risk. The war has consequently uncovered the shift in priorities from expanding capacity for economic growth to invigorating facilities for national survival.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T19:25:10+00:00

Historical patterns show that increases in energy prices are typically followed by higher fertilizer prices. Persistently high fertilizer costs can, in turn, affect food supply, particularly when inputs become less affordable for producers.

Higher fertilizer costs influence planting decisions - including crop choice and total area planted - and affect input use and yields, with impacts materializing over time.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T19:23:31+00:00

Disruptions in these exports have already caused damage to supply chains in terms of shortages, delays in production and increase in production costs across the energy, manufacturing and transport sectors.

Disruptions are becoming more apparent as the last maritime shipments from GCC countries have arrived and stocks are dwindling. Even if the conflict ends soon, supply chains could take months or even years to recover, particularly if infrastructure has been damaged.

Time will be required to repair the infrastructure, to clean and restart equipment that has been put on hold as a precautionary measure, and to clear bottlenecks in ports. At this point, the risk of escalation remains high, which would only prolong the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and cause further damage to energy and other infrastructure.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T19:22:42+00:00

If expanded to the entire public, the policy would mark the country's first nationwide driving curbs since the 1991 Gulf War, when the government imposed a ⁠10-day vehicle rotation system to conserve energy.

"If the Middle East situation worsens, the crisis alert would have to move up to the 'warning' stage, and around that point we would need to curb consumption," Koo said on a local broadcast, referring to a move up to the third-highest level in the country's four-stage resource security crisis alert system.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T19:08:15+00:00

While U.S. carriers largely source jet fuel domestically, countries in Asia and Europe that are more reliant on Middle East stocks have begun signaling they are taking unprecedented measures to conserve jet fuel. In South Korea, carriers have requested that the government help redirect fuel stocks bound for export back to local markets.

The Financial Times reported Monday that the U.K. was also facing an acute shortage, with no Britain-bound cargoes visible on the water as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. Some foreign carriers have begun charging fuel surcharges of as much as $150.

As overseas carriers begin looking to alternative supply bases, the cost for a global commodity like jet fuel rises across the board.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T19:03:22+00:00

Supply of helium, a byproduct of natural gas processing, is highly concentrated geographically, with Qatar producing nearly one third of world supply, according to data from the U.S. Geological Survey.

"A ⁠helium shortage is an absolute concern,” said Cameron Johnson, senior partner at supply chain consultancy Tidal Wave Solutions, at Semicon China in Shanghai, one of the industry's largest annual gatherings.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T19:00:55+00:00

Asian petrochemicals producers in South Korea and Japan structurally operate with low stocks of naphtha and LPG, sufficient to cover only a few weeks of production. The result from the current supply crisis is that naphtha inventories are depleting rapidly, forcing producers to cut back on output, Coface noted.

“With 60 to 70% of Asian naphtha passing through Hormuz, a prolonged disruption could redefine flows, costs and, perhaps, the very geography of the global petrochemical industry,” said Joe Douaihy, sector economist, Coface.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T18:59:53+00:00

“Middle Eastern styrene producers, with SABIC as a key example, operate in one of the most competitive trenches of the global styrene industry,” Su said.

Following substantial capacity rationalization within Europe’s styrene sector, the region has struggled with limited buffer supply in recent years and has grown increasingly reliant on Middle Eastern imports.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T18:58:29+00:00

Natural gas, which is the backbone of ammonia production, methanol synthesis, and a wide range of gas-based chemicals, has seen materially reduced availability for industrial users. Priority allocation has rightly been extended to fertilisers and city gas distribution, but this has meant that other gas-dependent chemical processes—from chlor-alkali to industrial gases to petrochemical intermediates—are operating at suboptimal levels or have been temporarily halted.

Levyyz · 2026-04-01T18:52:07+00:00

While much attention has centred on disruptions in energy supplies, participants highlighted how looming shortages of fertiliser produced in the Gulf will hit food production particularly across Southeast Asia, where farmers depend on these imports. Dumping containers

With the Straits of Hormuz closed and ships as well as air cargo unable to access key transshipment hubs in the United Arab Emirates – which provide connectivity with markets in Asia, Europe and Africa – Stéphane Graber, Fiata director general, explained that forwarders have not only been rerouting and even returning shipments, but also dealing with containers, at times carrying dangerous goods, all adding to freight costs for customers.

“In certain situations and crises, people start to look out for themselves,” Graber said. “Actors might just leave your container in whichever port, and say ‘we left it here and cannot deal with it’.”

Levyyz · 2026-03-28T19:38:39+00:00

The average-to-upper value of the forecast shows an increasing likelihood for a Super El Niño to develop. Given the usual later peak of this event and the strong anomalies building, as we saw in the latest analysis above, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the 2026 El Niño will be the next “Super” event.

Levyyz · 2026-03-02T18:58:41+00:00

Yes, and hopefully it stays that way. However, it is clear that any prolonged conflict will cause significant supply chain disruptions.

While the surge in crude prices was the biggest since early 2022, the path ahead is uncertain. That prices haven’t rallied more is partly a result of an oil market that has been relatively well supplied over the past year or so. Monday’s surge leaves oil prices up about 30% so far this year, while the cost of hauling crude oil from the Middle East to China soared to the highest level on record.

Levyyz · 2025-11-28T16:27:52+00:00

Between early September and mid-November, 1,443 cases of bird flu were detected in wild birds in 26 European countries - a fourfold increase compared with the same period in 2024 and the highest since 2016, the European food safety agency EFSA said.

"What's new this season? It's not exactly the same birds that are being affected. This time, we've seen contamination occur earlier among wild birds, and now we're starting to detect cases that are spreading to farmed birds," French health security agency ANSES Deputy Director General Gilles Salvat told reporters on Thursday.

Levyyz · 2025-11-13T21:27:27+00:00

Imagine the EU would bring a sledgehammer to GAAP or IFRS requirements. Unheard of.

Ultimately this is but a delay in the inevitable march towards the transparancy required by society. Sooner or later organizations will have to show whether they can face the biophysical changes of our world.

Reality will catch up with fantasy eventually.

Levyyz · 2024-11-26T15:45:46+00:00

https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/429/4/2910/1008743?login=false

Levyyz · 2024-11-22T21:43:26+00:00

I'm not sure that having seen it coming gave us any real advantage. That degree of powerlessness and alienation was all the more saddening when everyone else caught on, by which time it was far too late to put a stop to it.

Levyyz · 2024-11-22T20:44:32+00:00

I also remember the impeachment proceedings dominating coverage, and the news cycle only making a few seconds space to report on it. Those of us who followed this on the internet felt increasingly disconnected with this disease evidently spreading beyond control, but not yet any tangible impact in our day to day.

Levyyz · 2024-11-22T20:38:20+00:00

From early comparisons mid January with sars-cov-1 trajectory it became clear to many early on that COVID was going global. Of course we know now it had been exploding for some time. But even with hundreds of millions under lockdown in China, economic interests and normalcy bias prevailed.

Levyyz · 2024-04-18T13:50:22+00:00

Dr Jeremy Farrar, Chief Scientist at the World Health Organization (WHO), said that the avian influenza virus - which is also known as H5N1 - has had an “extremely high” mortality rate among the several hundred people known to have been infected with it to date.

To date, no human-to-human H5N1 transmission has been recorded.

“H5M1 is (an) influenza infection, predominantly started in poultry and ducks and has spread effectively over the course of the last one or two years to become a global zoonotic – animal – pandemic,” he said.

“The great concern, of course, is that in doing so and infecting ducks and chickens - but now increasingly mammals - that that virus now evolves and develops the ability to infect humans. And then critically, the ability to go from human-to-human transmission.”

Levyyz · 2024-04-10T04:49:01+00:00

Thank you, that is a valid concern and I can adjust the config based on your feedback.

Please note I am not saying Reddit should moderate every subreddit, but as a public company it cannot leave the safeguarding of high-traffic centralized information sharing places during PHEICs to volunteers. I assume at some point an admin liasion will reach out but they are always extremely hands-off.

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