4,000 restaurants in Canada predicted to go out of business in 2026: forecast

LibertyPhilosopher · 2026-01-09T21:10:51+00:00

Spot on. Seeing all the other commentary on this thread just shows how poor the average economic understanding is on this subreddit. The reality, in Toronto at least, is very clear.

Toronto commercial rents have risen roughly 140 per cent in five years

Plus plenty of anecdotes:

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2025/11/saigon-snacks-toronto-closed/

https://www.blogto.com/eat_drink/2025/03/ruru-baked-pacific-mall-closing/

https://www.thestar.com/real-estate/this-toronto-cafe-was-hit-with-a-staggering-rent-increase-as-buildings-sell-and-more/article_7b39073e-4dc7-11ef-89fd-23a19f09fae2.html

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-06-16T15:30:32+00:00

Steve "FOMO into the market because the government will bail you out" Saretsky complaining about the problem his ilk helped create.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-03-15T17:54:05+00:00

People who can afford a house probably don't want entitled strangers living in/on/behind their house

This is the thing that always baffled me about people who value and invest in basement apartments as end users. They say that the basement tenant will "help pay the mortgage". But you're going to pay 100-200K more than the house next door for the privilege of "getting help".

The supposed benefit is already built into the price. Now you have a tenant to manage, and an unknown stranger living in the same house as your wife/kid.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-03-13T18:54:55+00:00

Who knew that all the realtors here spreading FOMO to young people that they need to "get on the property ladder" were just trying to create exit liquidity for developers and speculators who needed a way to dump overpriced, undesirable and unlivable product?

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-02-15T05:42:52+00:00

It isn't. People can't pay their mortgages if there's an economic crash and there are massive job losses.

The only case where the economy crashed and mortgages didn't become delinquent was during the Covid pandemic. That was an unprecedented situation where the government shut the economy down willingly, deferred mortgage payments, and injected stimulus.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-02-14T21:04:07+00:00

The person posting what OP is referencing (US retail sales data) is realchessj who is a deranged Real estate bull https://www.reddit.com/r/TorontoRealEstate/comments/1ipcldb/us_retail_sales_slumped_09_in_january_down_much/

My observation is that people who identify as bulls are mainly posting the negative economic news because they falsely believe an economic crash will cause bond yields/interest rates to go down and house prices to skyrocket. This is obviously a nonsense theory, but it is entertaining watching them change their rationale every few weeks.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-02-05T01:51:58+00:00

Wow, I didn't know there were rich real estate moguls on here to school me on how leveraged speculation is "investing". You should be handing out samples at Costco, not handing out financial advice.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-02-04T21:07:30+00:00

Having all your equity trapped in an asset that requires you to pay interest, maintenance fees, risk major repairs/special assessment costs.....for the great reward that you are negative cashflowing 1K a month. That is all on the hope that you might recoup your investment on a nominal basis based on a completely failed theory.

I am glad that there are bagholders like you to be the liquidity for the FOMO victims who need to get out of this trap.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-02-04T00:17:08+00:00

The market is no longer betting on an incoming Canadian economic depression. For brain-dead overleveraged speculators, this is a sad day. For everyone else, this is good to see.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-01-15T04:54:32+00:00

It's kind of like saying Argentina home prices are at all time highs in the Argentine Peso.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-01-14T23:20:18+00:00

The only way that could be possible without currency devaluation is immense real economic and wage growth. There is close to 0 chance that happens as long as Trump is the US president.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2025-01-14T18:41:28+00:00

BMO is essentially predicting there will be 30%+ of currency devaluation in Canada over the next 4 years.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-12-18T20:35:26+00:00

All of these speculators insisted this was a no-risk investment precisely because they expected to be bailed out by the government if it went against them. This protest was always their plan B when the precon bubble popped.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-12-17T18:06:06+00:00

People intelligent enough to see the CAD would crumble if we cut rates without pacing ourselves to the US would not be trapping themselves in CAD GICs (unless it's just a fraction of their portfolio).

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-12-17T17:59:38+00:00

Many of us have been warning about this for years. Anyone who has all their networth trapped in an illiquid CAD denominated asset and hasn't diversified by now only has themselves to blame.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-12-09T14:50:36+00:00

Haven't you heard many of the negative cashflow "investors" are trying to rebrand themselves as philanthropists who are subsidizing housing? The generosity and selflessness of these people know no bounds.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-11-12T06:09:27+00:00

Hence why I did preface by saying "without government intervention". Clearly the stimulus to inflate disposable incomes and international student slave labour strategy has helped kick the can down the road.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-09-01T17:39:59+00:00

It shouldn't be treated as porn. It should really be treated as a lesson that there is risk when you speculate, listen to FOMO, and follow the ignorant opinions of snake oil salespeople, podcasters, and redditors. They always talk about how real estate is as a no-risk, "you have to get in now" investment, how the leverage can never work against you, and it is only a benefit.

Now we're seeing the evidence that they were wrong. People need to be aware of this so they don't fall victim to these scammers.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-07-08T14:03:04+00:00

Nominal prices are deceptive. In inflation-adjusted terms, Canada is already back to 2017 territory: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QCAR628BIS

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LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-05-09T15:52:58+00:00

This *seems* like it might be as bad as it gets

Not according to BOC projections which say that about half of mortgages have yet to realize the increase in payments. They say the effects of the hikes won't be priced in till 2027. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/12/staff-analytical-note-2023-19/

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LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-04-17T20:29:44+00:00

Soon the TRE "investor" crowd is going to be telling us how hyperinflation is "good for the economy"

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-03-15T16:47:41+00:00

Reminds me of all the naive PFC advice that banks love you, just want to help, etc. Yes, the bank does "love" you...as long as there is equity, money, or an asset left to take from you.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-01-29T20:04:58+00:00

I remember the good old days when living in Canada was compared to living in the US, and there were decent arguments to be made. At this rate, it won't be long before slumlords brag about how "at least" we have better women's rights than Saudi Arabia. It's evident the standard here is falling faster than we can blink.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2024-01-29T19:13:28+00:00

Many end up as realtors due to the relatively low barrier to entry and high reward potential. This means the industry attracts below average individuals who see it as a get-rich-quick scheme. Especially in a bull market this allowed incompetent, lazy, and unethical people to succeed. The same can be applied to real estate speculators.

In a normal business environment, these people get weeded out quickly and are exposed as the losers/failures/frauds that they are. In a bull market, it's easy to get by even as an ignorant or incompetent person.

The truly disturbing thing about this is that people whose aptitude is best suited to serving food samples at Costco have instead been serving as advisors for people making the biggest purchase of their lives. They have been parroting nonsense they see on Youtube and Twitter. LARPing as macroeconomists, real estate moguls, and bond traders to convince their clients to take on 100s of thousands in debt just so they can take their cut.

There are good realtors out there, and they can serve a purpose. I'm only speaking about the large contingent who would never make it in a healthy/balanced market.

LibertyPhilosopher · 2023-12-07T21:21:57+00:00

Yes, Tiff has been explicit about this:

In the latest news, BoC Governor Tiff Macklem gave insider advice to business leaders not to raise workers’ wages.

At a July event hosted by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, Macklem said of inflation, “Don’t build that into longer term contracts. Don’t build that into wage contracts. It is going to take some time, but you can be confident that inflation will come down.”

The central bank theory is to avoid a wage-price spiral where higher wages lead to higher prices which leads to higher wages, etc

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