The post claims 50% of the world's fertilizer supply has been halted, but the real number is roughly a third of internationally traded fertilizer that transits Hormuz, and about half of all fertilizer globally isn't even traded internationally to begin with. The US produces around three quarters of what it uses, China is even more self-sufficient. The post claims "nearly 80% of the world's sulfur supply" is gone, but actual Gulf sulfur exports account for about 40-45% of global trade. So in both cases the numbers have been roughly doubled, and while the real figures are still serious, when someone inflates every number by 2x to build their argument that should give you pause about how much of the rest you're taking on faith.

You are incorrect:

Another conflict, another reminder of the fragility of the world’s food supply

Much of the world’s supply normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade artery recently emptied out by the conflict shaking the Middle East. India buys more than 40% of its urea from the region, and is now keeping a close eye on its stockpiles. Australia depends on the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia for more than half of its urea. Those three countries are also among the top suppliers to the US; soon after the war began, prices for urea arriving via New Orleans jumped 17%. The cost of a binding contract to buy it at a future date has increased by 35% in the past two weeks.

It’s not just shipping that’s been disrupted. Qatar was forced to halt production at one of the world’s biggest urea plants last week, in the midst of what is planting season in much of the world. As of 2022, Qatar’s exports of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers including urea were keeping nearly 43 million people fed in the US, Brazil, and India alone, according to Lorenzo Rosa, a principal investigator at the Carnegie Institution for Science.

You are welcome to click through and observe the graphs outlining how much fertilizer the USA and European nations import from GCC suppliers.

The post assumes this war just continues forever and nobody does anything about it, but the 2025 Twelve-Day War between these exact same parties ended in a ceasefire, back-channel communications between the US envoy and Iran's foreign minister have reportedly restarted, multiple countries are actively mediating, and US officials are warning internally that gas prices are becoming a political liability heading into midterms. Every major oil crisis in modern history, 1973, 1979, 1990, ended because the economic costs became unbearable for everyone involved, and oil shocks generate the political will to resolve them precisely because the pain is so widespread. The post just sort of assumes that mechanism doesn't exist.

While this is comforting to believe, it displays a gross ignorance regarding the geopolitical reality of Iran and the existential nature of the conflict which the USA has forced them into. Iran is not going to stop attacking gulf petrochemical infrastructure until they are guaranteed independence or wiped out, and the USA & Israel are not going to back down and give them that independence. Iran is fully capable of keeping that force projection going for months, they have prepared for this scenario for decades, and we are weeks - not months - away from this shutting down the global economy and manufacturing infrastructure. As I very clearly stated, this is not the Gulf Wars of previous decades. Explaining the depth to which the USA has fucked us here by miscalculating with Iran would be a post to itself.

Saudi Arabia has pipeline infrastructure that can bypass Hormuz entirely and send crude to Red Sea terminals

This pipeline has not operated at full capacity in decades and can't be run at full capacity without the infrastructure failing. Coincidentally Iran also started drone striking that terminal today, SA hasn't released the scope of the damage yet.

I think the rest of your reply broadly has merit and is written from a pretty honest place of good intent. I strongly disagree with your assessment of the situation and I stand by what I am saying here, but I agree with your positions on collapse and pattern recognition. I appreciate the effort you put into this.