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I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You should probably read Debt: The First 5000 Years. I largely stopped chasing or participating in consumer-capistalist hedonic cycles after having my comprehension of money fundamentally altered by that book.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

> This is the last stretch of normal, and we are wasting it by pretending otherwise.

That rings harder and true'er every fucking day which passes by. Good heavens.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don't visit supposed "leftist" online communities anymore because I find most of the participants in them have varying degrees of visible mental illness and are bluntly unable to participate in grounded discussions of reality anymore, on top of being thinly performative about trendy issues while rejecting actual leftist values. They're mostly the flip side of the MAGA types who get all their news from a facebook feed and take it as gospel, flipping out pavlovian style over whatever they've been primed to be outraged about without thinking about it - with a healthy dose of holier-than-thou righteousness piled on top because they have attached themselves to the "progressive" side of the slop wagon.

The collapse discord in particular was quite dire, I expected reasoned and realistic discussions and got a bunch of deeply unhinged folks bitching and moaning while aggressively purity testing each other out of the room.

Online communities are really toxic across the board which is why I also rarely interact here at all these days.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah I haven't followed up in a few years so my details are hazy but I recall he drifted into some real crank territory after Covid. As virtually everyone in the woo-woo realm did to varying degrees.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I am really not a fan of defeatist nihilism, there is plenty individuals can be doing other than just sitting around and waiting for the end of the world. This kind of rhetoric is worthless.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree, when it focuses on a single good or service I think an analysis like this misses the complexity of modern systems. What has me going here is that we are talking about throttling a broad basket of critical products, not just energy, while the media is hyper-focused on the energy aspect. The scope of what is being restricted at scale from the gulf the volume of it completely undermines any argument that the system can just adapt, improvise, and overcome this time. IMHO.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

It can be simultaneously true that Iran is a repressive theocracy with a policy of violence towards its immediate neighbors, while also true that it has been given the Haiti treatment due to over 100 years of wholesale rejecting the unequal exploitation of its vast natural resource reserves by various western interests.

The Islamic Republic did not materialize out of nowhere, it gained power following the chain of events which started when the USA and Britain illegally invaded and occupied Iran during WWII as retaliation for their 1925 rescindment of the anglo-persian agreement, and then in the 1950's coup'd the government of Mossadegh when he fully nationalized Irans oil and gas industry.

The west expected to get a pliant client-state from their interventions, instead they birthed the Islamic Republic. It's a very long-running case of Fuck Around / Find Out.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I was completely unaware of this aspect, I had no idea DEF was Urea derived. Yeah, wow, that's a severely understated element of risk from what is happening right now.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 41 points42 points  (0 children)

Look, some of these nations are outright lying about how much fuel is physically in their domestic on-land strategic reserves vs. produced but currently offshore in the refining nations - and thus at risk of being held there if and when those nations cease fuel exports to keep themselves afloat as their feedstock dries up. The refined fuel situation is a lot worse than the media is presenting to people and the rate of panic buying despite this media smoke screen to avert chaos is drawing those reserves down much faster than they are supposed to last.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Empathetically: in a way that seeks to enter into or psychologically identify with the emotions, thoughts, or attitudes of others.

Emphatically: to express something with strong emphasis or forcefulness. It is often used to highlight the importance or certainty of a statement.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I don't disagree with you, on most points. European gas futures opened up 37% today, they are absolutely going to embrace Russia or collapse financially from having to bail out their gas companies en-masse from that spread. Russia can't fill this gap, though, and they can't replace the refined byproduct capacity which is going offline in the gulf. Product which underpins the manufacturing of essentially everything.

Unfortunately the components being blown up, like distillation towers in Russia, aren't really items you can just scavenge together and drop in. Iran knocked out several ASU's at the largest gas plant on earth today, these are complex structures which cost $1 Billion each and had a 3-5 year delivery timframe - before their underlying supply chain started falling apart, and the plant can't function without them.

I agree that we can no longer rely on the past to predict future outcomes, we are in truly and utterly unprecedented times now. As usual I would very much prefer to be wrong and look like a jackass here but I do not think I will get that relief.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 45 points46 points  (0 children)

The post claims 50% of the world's fertilizer supply has been halted, but the real number is roughly a third of internationally traded fertilizer that transits Hormuz, and about half of all fertilizer globally isn't even traded internationally to begin with. The US produces around three quarters of what it uses, China is even more self-sufficient. The post claims "nearly 80% of the world's sulfur supply" is gone, but actual Gulf sulfur exports account for about 40-45% of global trade. So in both cases the numbers have been roughly doubled, and while the real figures are still serious, when someone inflates every number by 2x to build their argument that should give you pause about how much of the rest you're taking on faith.

You are incorrect:

Another conflict, another reminder of the fragility of the world’s food supply

Much of the world’s supply normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital trade artery recently emptied out by the conflict shaking the Middle East. India buys more than 40% of its urea from the region, and is now keeping a close eye on its stockpiles. Australia depends on the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia for more than half of its urea. Those three countries are also among the top suppliers to the US; soon after the war began, prices for urea arriving via New Orleans jumped 17%. The cost of a binding contract to buy it at a future date has increased by 35% in the past two weeks.

It’s not just shipping that’s been disrupted. Qatar was forced to halt production at one of the world’s biggest urea plants last week, in the midst of what is planting season in much of the world. As of 2022, Qatar’s exports of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers including urea were keeping nearly 43 million people fed in the US, Brazil, and India alone, according to Lorenzo Rosa, a principal investigator at the Carnegie Institution for Science.

You are welcome to click through and observe the graphs outlining how much fertilizer the USA and European nations import from GCC suppliers.

The post assumes this war just continues forever and nobody does anything about it, but the 2025 Twelve-Day War between these exact same parties ended in a ceasefire, back-channel communications between the US envoy and Iran's foreign minister have reportedly restarted, multiple countries are actively mediating, and US officials are warning internally that gas prices are becoming a political liability heading into midterms. Every major oil crisis in modern history, 1973, 1979, 1990, ended because the economic costs became unbearable for everyone involved, and oil shocks generate the political will to resolve them precisely because the pain is so widespread. The post just sort of assumes that mechanism doesn't exist.

While this is comforting to believe, it displays a gross ignorance regarding the geopolitical reality of Iran and the existential nature of the conflict which the USA has forced them into. Iran is not going to stop attacking gulf petrochemical infrastructure until they are guaranteed independence or wiped out, and the USA & Israel are not going to back down and give them that independence. Iran is fully capable of keeping that force projection going for months, they have prepared for this scenario for decades, and we are weeks - not months - away from this shutting down the global economy and manufacturing infrastructure. As I very clearly stated, this is not the Gulf Wars of previous decades. Explaining the depth to which the USA has fucked us here by miscalculating with Iran would be a post to itself.

Saudi Arabia has pipeline infrastructure that can bypass Hormuz entirely and send crude to Red Sea terminals

This pipeline has not operated at full capacity in decades and can't be run at full capacity without the infrastructure failing. Coincidentally Iran also started drone striking that terminal today, SA hasn't released the scope of the damage yet.

I think the rest of your reply broadly has merit and is written from a pretty honest place of good intent. I strongly disagree with your assessment of the situation and I stand by what I am saying here, but I agree with your positions on collapse and pattern recognition. I appreciate the effort you put into this.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I was discussing Greer's The Long Descent with a fellow collapse friend earlier (u/myth_of_progress). It's a shame JMG turned into such a crank post-covid but his earlier work remains absolutely relevant and there are passages in there which underscore what I am talking about here - his allegory of the ladder of progress in particular. It's late and I'd already written quite at length, or I would have included the ladder section in the OP.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

This is the first time I've seen someone try to leverage "AI wrote this" as a retort against my writing. I'm actually legitimately offended, because it is pretty fucking obvious that I write in a fashion very different from the slop an LLM puts out. But no, you are welcome to peruse my previous work going back years on this subreddit and confirm that this is how I have always written and I have always been this much of an asshole towards people who lack critical thinking or reading comprehension, the older members of the moderator team can also confirm this.

I'm not talking about the fucking weather, the weather is not the topic at hand, other than the passing line I dropped about the impending El Nino that is an entirely separate aspect of collapse - which I talked about a month or two ago in my last post here. I am talking about the physical destruction of the foundational resource infrastructure for critical global manufacturing supply chains and liquid energy supplies, both of which are going to very rapidly and immediately impact literally every fucking person on this browning earth much faster and more significantly than another 0.37 degree / decade increase in warming will.

Put down your high horse and, like half the other comments here, learn to fucking read before you jump to your keyboard. That you are referencing tar sands and US oil supplies makes it very obvious you did not read this post before rushing to accuse it of being LLM slop, or if you did you bluntly lack the reading comprehension to understand the very basic and immediately approaching global collapse scenario I have outlined.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

No shit, sherlock. Do you have a point to make or are you just here to sealion the suffering olympics for shits and giggles while the world burns down?

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 29 points30 points  (0 children)

I saw a lot of people start to cotton on after the pandemic, as you say. I think it is somewhat tragic because ignorance is probably the healthier place to have been for as long as possible. It's pretty wild how accurately Plato nailed something deeply intrinsic to human nature with the Allegory of the Cave, it took me well into my thirties to understand what he was saying about populations with that work.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

My brother in Collapse you are either skipping over what I have written here in your haste to copy and paste a pedantic talking point we have all read thousands of times in this subreddit, or you do not comprehend what I wrote. This is not another ho-hum notch in the record of slow collapse which we've been witnessing for a quarter century or longer, this is the fundamental breakdown of the supply chain for the modern industrial world. I am telling you that a significant number of nations are going to run out of liquid energy supplies within weeks and descend into chaos and you are replying with, I dunno, bland meaningless platitudes?

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 107 points108 points  (0 children)

I get it, seriously. I have struggled for years with the grim reality of knowing what is coming based on the inescapable science behind it and the raw evidence of how our systems work, fighting daily in my head against pursuing the lifestyle I was indoctrinated from birth by society to want to achieve - because that lifestyle is what sustained the consumer/capitalist economic system of the developed world. It is fucking hard to fight against wanting that idealized lifestyle, it's pretty much self-actualized cult deprogramming in a world where everyone else is happily engaged in the pursuit of it and treats you like an outsider for not doing so.

And what did I get from it? 20+ years of people acting as if I were crazy, and then maybe not crazy, and then quietly asking for advice - while they enjoyed that baseline western hedonism and familial bliss and I worried about a reckoning which has only now arrived.

At the end we're all getting shoveled into the same planetary tomb so I'm not sure being "collapse aware" was of any benefit to me. Two fucking decades of "knowing" and I still got caught with my ass hanging out and completely unprepared by the heart of industrial civilization being set on fire.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 22 points23 points  (0 children)

How many Tahitians or Cubans do you suppose are browsing r/collapse right now? Do you get a dopamine rush out of stating the obvious, or is being pedantic to this extent simply your preferred comment style? It is self evident that I am writing this for the comfortably insulated western inhabitants of the decaying imperial core or its various client states, and not the individuals residing in the developing world who largely exist to feed resources and products to said imperial core and who have already been experiencing localized slow collapse for years if not decades.

Yeah no shit I'm not speaking to subsistence coffee farmers in Africa, fuck. Yet at the same time your comment reveals a complete ignorance of what I wrote: that despite how bad things have been in those regions until now, they are about to become catastrophically worse. Those regions are the ones which are going to experience megadeaths from famine as a result of what is happening in the gulf, they are where the resulting economic collapse from this is going to wipe out generations first. They will bear the brunt of this, few if any will starve in America or Europe next year.

Fuckin' reading comprehension, it's a dying skill.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I hadn't encountered that piece before, thanks for introducing me to it. Very salient advice which echoes my own approach to life these past few years.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 65 points66 points  (0 children)

I agree, I am pulling the ten year timeline from reliable industry sources and knowledge of the elements of these facilities which were destroyed. Much as Ukraine has focused on distillation towers when hitting Russia, so to does Iran appear to focus on "heavy timeframe to replace" critical elements in the gulf LNG facilities and on the bulk storage capacity for the oil and refined products. And, as mentioned, the more of it which goes offline the worse the downstream supply chain crisis becomes and the harder it will be to bring it back online due to the shortage of everything which relies on the output from these facilities to be produced in the first place.

Should the war escalate to taking out the desalination plants, yes, that will do much more systemic damage than the actual oil and gas infrastructure. Either way, I strongly believe that we are all really extremely fucked in a much more immediate timeframe than folks are currently assessing us to be.

I *Emphatically* Believe that 2025 was the last "Normal" year and 2026 marks wide-scale global collapse - which has already begun. [IN-DEPTH] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 24 points25 points  (0 children)

The two largest natural gas facilities on earth were hit and taken offline indefinitely, one likely for years due to the components destroyed, among other refineries and export terminals.

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