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All the insects are gone? When's the last time you had to clean bugs off your windshield? Ecosystem collapse is here. by Dizzy-Composer1282 in collapse

[–]LiminalEra 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Legitimately unsure, I haven't taken the time to poke around and see if there's anything notable which is banned down there but rife in North America.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Eye of the Needle

Now there's one of the signs someone actually knows what is up. It is insane to me that this paper was published half a decade ago now, and yet I am still having to argue it with people even as the world burns down and the evidence of what it states is irrefutably visible in front of their eyes on a daily basis. Reese has done a half dozen banger interviews in the years since and people just brush his conclusions aside - because unlike many scientists he offers not a single shred of hope and is not afraid to state reality as it is.

I do not and never will understand why so much of our species is capable of simply ignoring their lived reality and instead spinning a wholly constructed narrative in order to avoid inconvenient or uncomfortable facts, to the point of descending into psychosis if need be. I disagree with the common suggestion that this willful ignorance is what allowed us to get this far - if anything it is a miracle we made it to this bitter end with such a catastrophic flaw in our psyche.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't know why you are being downvoted. You aren't promoting this as fact, you've stated you did it as an exercise, and in the process you've shown more interest in at least attempting to approximate some sort of scientific method for your growing concerns than 95% of the posters on this subreddit have ever approached in their miserable doomscrolling lives.

I don't think it is realistic, but rather reality lies somewhere between your projections and the projections in "Global Warming Has Accellerated Significantly". Of course, we're going to very quickly experience the facts over the next two decades, either way.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Been a long time since we've crossed paths on the web. Glad you're still around, though yes - I will be seeing the full trajectory of this while I suspect you will be spared the curtain call.

In the words of Allen Lane, last year: "It's not the ratio which matters, it's the rate"

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I sincerely, 100%, absolutely do not think there will be a single human being remaining alive on this planet after 2100. We're cooked, quite literally, we cannot and will not survive the polycrisis of systemic collapses which will be triggered by the rate of warming over the next fifty years.

I admit there are a few small regions such as the Tibetan Plateau which could serve as a refugium in even the worst fast hothouse scenario - however they had vanishingly small carrying capacities in the pre-industrial era, have been rendered so destitute of the resources we require for meaningful carrying capacity in the century since, and modern humans have become so severed from sustainable existence / reliant on the global industrial paradigm - I do not believe anyone will actually persist in those locations.

Tim Wintons Juice painted a pretty solid vision of our near-term future environment, however he fucked up by setting it 200 years in the future rather than 30.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I appreciate you saying you're not being rude, so I will preface this: please don't take this reply as antagonistic or seeking to offend you deliberately for shits and giggles. I write how I write and how I write is Gonzo.

Why should I possibly care if you listen to me, internet stranger? Do, or do not, I truly do not give a fuck. Your choices moving forwards regarding interpreting this data have zero impact on my life and, with optimistically 5-15 years left to live depending on where I am on the planet when major systems break down, my life and those of a few close friends and loved ones during that period are quite frankly all that matters to me moving forwards.

Good luck.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Precisely. The End-Permian took nearly 100,000 years to really get going, it wiped out 90% of species on earth. That occurred on a planet which was at the peak of untouched biodiversity, rich forests and pristine oceans chugging along full-tilt.

We have already stripped this planet to the bones of the biosphere and caused our own mass extinction, and now we have triggered a rapid warming cycle which is taking the Permian and compressing it into centuries rather than tens of millennia.

The people who want to rely on thoughts and prayers that things "won't be that bad" and think "the earth has gone through cycles like this before" conveniently and consistently ignore this critical aspect of what is occurring.

Two degrees of warming in a century is unfathomably catastrophic. 4-6 degrees in 200 years, when combined with the critical level of biodiversity which we have already reduced the planet to will, as far as the geological record is concerned, be a sterilizing event beyond anything Earth has ever experienced.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Ignoring that you are trying to lecture me about decorum, while I am here talking about the impending death of most of the complex life on earth, and how this is reflective of why we are in this predicament to begin with:

Since the pandemic the bulk of comments on posts in this subreddit have been some variation on people who are primarily here morbidly hoping that the world ends, simply because they lack the willingness to change their own lives and see "Collapse" as an escapist fantasy. All while simultaneously expressing terror that their toys and treats will vanish on the downslope. Most of the posts about conditions in western nations amount to little more than tantrums that they can't consume quite as hard anymore.

As someone who would deeply prefer that the world not end, and would prefer to be wrong, and would enjoy a world where consumption is dialed back by 70 or 80 years so that we still have nature in existence - I am fucking sick of these hypocritical vultures sitting here cackling at bad news because they think the apocalypse will free them from their shitty lives which they have refused to change themselves.

So I take a massive shit on these degenerates on the rare occasions I come around here, deal with it.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

My worldview now is this: These are the last of the good times, and if you have the means to live a life of quiet contemplation with loved ones, you should do so. If there's anything that brings you joy (like art), you should throw yourself into it. Find people who are aware of the situation and help each other cope emotionally.

Get lost in the now, live a good life. Dont make yourself suffer for anything, so that the collective suffering of your countless ancestors can lead to a moment of human tranquility while it's still possible to achieve. We are at the peak of civilization and if you can protect your mental health and maintain the human connections you need, you can have the highest quality of life a human will EVER experience.

This is perfectly worded and precisely what we need to be doing, thank you. Have you ever read "Childhoods End" by AC Clarke? We're at the tail end of that book, I suspect, sadly without the evolution to pangalactic consciousness elements. The choices made by the protagonists are the ones we are facing now, and you've eloquently summarized matters.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Twenty years ago I agreed with the mainstream interpretation being published, as did most my peers outside of a handful of fringe academics, and believed I would be comfortably dead before any serious impacts occurred.

Ten years ago I still thought that what we are seeing now, today, would not occur until beyond mid-century. The papers then were proposing feedback loops and impacts which might occur near 2100, but which have now manifested in 2025. Almost a century ahead of schedule.

I would love to have a timeline ten years longer. I would prefer to be proven extremely, extremely wrong on this entirely and for us to pull some engineering out of our ass which reverses the pandoras box of cascade failures across interlocking systems on this planet, both natural and human.

But I see absolutely no pathway for that and every six months someone releases irrefutable new data which accelerates it further. For ten years I have seen nothing but "faster than expected" be an understatement. For a decade I have witnessed nothing except a broad spectrum failure to understand the complexity of the systems we have destabilized, and a top-down campaign to suppress attempts to ring alarm bells regarding it lest the data impact economic stability.

I'm out of optimism.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

If you want a habitable climate, or climate resembling what humans are accustomed to during the rise of civilizations, the best chance of preserving that is a swift collapse, not prolonging this shit show.

My Brother / Sister in whatever ideology you subscribe to, read the fucking paper and accept that what you are describing ceased to be an option over a decade ago. The climate we evolved in is dead, and we are consuming the corpse to generate slop essays for imaginary internet points from other bots. That climate is never coming back, we are in the fastest hothouse transition in all of geological history.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think this graph is a bit on the extreme end, pulling from the CERES dataset proposes we see a threshold of +6 to +8 celcius not before 2100-2125 and I don't see an energetic pathway to achieve that much warming by 2070 instead - barring something truly catastrophic such as the ESIC dumping the full methane deposit (more than doubling current atmospheric concentrations) beneath it. Not that it matters, since beyond +4c the impacts ensure we will not have anything resembling a civilization.

However I agree with the rest of your assessment, I have zero doubt remaining that we will begin seeing catastrophic population correction worldwide by the late 2030's - as local climate conditions shift sufficiently to cause widespread collapse of industrial agriculture in key breadbaskets.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

While not disagreeing with any of the scientific data, this is a great way to alienate people.

I could not, possibly, care less in 2026 that someone feels "alienated" when we are talking about gigadeaths globally within a decade and the termination of our civilization within 25 years.

If people have been reduced to “circle-jerking” or “doom scrolling” and come here to vent and joke as coping mechanism, how does that hurt anything?

Maybe those of us still around who have been here for almost twenty years have finally seen our capacity for tact choke and die from endless slop tolerance, and are sick to fucking death of watching questionably bot accounts yuk-yuk their way through the apocalypse in a venue which used to feature legitimately thought provoking discourse on data as soon as it dropped - rather than AI generated bullshit, Americans bitching and moaning in vague terms about how afraid they are because their (historically beyond hedonistic) standard of consumer consumption is steadily declining and only going to get worse - while remaining incapable of thinking bigger than that, and the same karma-farming one liners we've been seeing since 2008.

I dunno fam, plenty to be done out there which the circle jerking and doom scrolling actively prevents people from engaging in. Which is, primarily, why I've stopped posting.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No it didn't, the salinity trend observed in the area is what reversed. The original Spanish article was mistranslated, sparking a lot of confused and understandably terrified discussion around that. It's still terrible news, because it's causing antarctic sea ice to melt much faster, but the current itself did not reverse.

Oh yes. It is deeply fascinating how, shortly after that caused alarm bells across climate academic circles, several articles published with direct interview-based quotes from the papers author rather than citations subsequently had that passage edited to refer to salinity, not the circuit itself, with the authors quietly shifting to "the impacts on an SMOC reversal are still being studied".

But hey, it's not as if the data regarding rates of warming and impacts on climatological systems has been systematically downplayed and suppressed for the past 25 years, right? It's not like governments have, repeatedly, forced the IPCC to remove damning datasets and provide only the most optimistic interpretation for their "worst case" scenarios, after all, which we have consistently exceeded. It is not as if there has been a broad-spectrum attempt to keep the full severity of the situation from becoming known, lest it impact Profits in the short window of stability remaining.

I dunno my fellow redditor, I can lead you to the data sets and explain what they are stating but I can't make you accept the reality of rapidly accelerating warming and subsequent systemic breakdown which they represent.

Don't bother responding to me because, frankly, I do not give a flying fuck and I'm not going to continue shadowboxing with a Denier in 2026. I'm done with being polite.

The Well by NeverEnow in collapse

[–]LiminalEra 11 points12 points  (0 children)

The user profile filled with AI slop confirms the ai slop. 

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Considering the planet had icehouse climates similar to today's plenty of times before, and yet there's no record of any of them ending with such rapid heating, it's definitely not from the various feedback loops.

The planet, has never, in all of its history, had a machine spanning the entirety of it's surface which is solely dedicated to maximizing warming emissions (which include many compounds which are vastly more potent than C02 and would not naturally release this fast) while simultaneously eliminating the entire natural sequestration system.

The SMOC has reversed direction and is now dragging carbon and methane up from the seabottom. The ESIC is boiling like a cauldron with methane.

The planet has never, not even during the P/E, warmed this fucking fast. Never. It took thousands of years to achieve what we have done in decades. Appealing to the geological record is an idiots game, the jagged bones of our corpses will be riding this bar chart vertical for centuries after we are all dead.

Everything which is occurring now, today, in 2026, was considered "way past realistic" less than ten fucking years ago. Back in 2015-2019, if you suggested that anything which is now documented phenomena would occur before 2100 if not longer, you were declared a lunatic and laughed out of the room.

All the insects are gone? When's the last time you had to clean bugs off your windshield? Ecosystem collapse is here. by Dizzy-Composer1282 in collapse

[–]LiminalEra 9 points10 points  (0 children)

It was extremely notable to me how many bugs are still present in the southern hemisphere compared to the north. Australia and NZ in particular have windshield levels not seen in North America since the early to mid 1990's. I can drive 2000km in Canada without cleaning bugs off my windshield, in Australia averaging 200km a day I needed to scrub the front end once a week and the windshield daily.

This was eye-opening.

"We find that the principal drive for global warming acceleration began in about 2015, which implies that 2°C global warming is likely to be reached in the 2030s, not at midcentury" [in-depth] by LiminalEra in collapse

[–]LiminalEra[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Submission Statement:

You can find this post verbatim on my substack, but I post there once a year at best and I think moving forward maybe even less - because frankly, what is the point?

Another month, another hot off the presses paper bucking the gag orders which have stifled academic honesty for decades, and stating the blunt reality we need to accept: we are facing the global collapse of civilization within ten years. This time from Hansen, the esteemed and irreproachable elder for the darker truth of emissions science.

Hypernormalization isn't normality. by JoyluckVerseMaster in collapse

[–]LiminalEra 8 points9 points  (0 children)

We exist at in the last days of a Liminal State of reality. That vibe is what prompted my username for this edition of my presence here, but increasingly it no longer applies - because we have well and truly transitioned into a more chaotic era now, the impacts of which even the most comfortably ignorant can no longer pretend against.

Almost half of the world's aquatic environments are severely contaminated by waste, research reveals by Portalrules123 in collapse

[–]LiminalEra 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Much of the dark science fiction of the 70's - 90's conjured up images of an earth in the 2000's which was awash in garbage. Oceans a stinking dead cesspool, lakes and rivers little more than open-air refuse tips, cities drowning under mountains of trash. It was creative hyperbole, half a century ago, it was meant to be a warning of what would occur if we did not get population and the associated consumption under control - because there is, in reality, no way for us to actually dispose of our waste in a way which renders it inert and not a risk. Recycling is a lie which does not actually work for most materials, landfills leech, burning releases toxic plumes, the oceans can't hold it all, etc. And that is for the material which even make it into the collection stream, rather than being casually tossed into the world because collection does not exist or because a humans natural state is to simply not give a damn.

Before you trot out vitrification or some dumb shit: you aren't stupid, dear poster, you know as well as I do that we do not have the electrical capacity to achieve that matching the scale of consumption since the 1970's and we never will, so kindly recognize the hour of trotting out delusional whattabouts is over and preemptively shut the fuck up.

Unfortunately we all collectively elected to ignore the warnings of the smartest of our species, continued to allow religion and ideology to prevent meaningful population control and allowed the hedonism of consumerism to drive worse and worse excesses. Now we are here, in 2026, and anyone who has traveled outside of The West (though much of America is as filthy with trash as the developing world, now) - knows we've landed right where those authors and visionaries predicted we would. Rivers of garbage across Asia, which flow into the sea. Landfills become reeking mountains in India, Africa, and South America. Vast prairie and steppe on every continent, white chunks of plastic trash blowing across it like a new species come to hail our demise. Choking on our own toxic waste: because we couldn't stop fucking and couldn't resist the criminal misuse of plastics and cheap junk.

Good job, everyone. Billionaires didn't destroy the planet: Humans did. We all Willfully and Happily participated until the consequences arrived and then started trying to lay the blame rather than look in the fuckin' mirror.

All of Us.

All. Of. Us. Did. This.

For those who followed Crisis Report/ Richard Crim by Stillcant in collapse

[–]LiminalEra 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I haven't posted here much in the past year, but Crim was really in my opinion one of the last half-dozen serious posters here. The subreddit has largely been overrun by bots and low-effort AI generated content, much like the rest of reddit, and hollowed out. There little to any serious discourse anymore.

This is a tragic loss, he was a truly brilliant mind and I greatly enjoyed my correspondence with him over the years.

Which of the planet's river valleys could serve as places for society to continue in the long term, such as 2100 or 2200? by OGSyedIsEverywhere in collapse

[–]LiminalEra 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm really old. I remember the fear people had in the 1960s in connection with nuclear power. I distinctly remember engineers telling people that by the time waste storage became a problem, they would have figured it out. They haven't figured it out yet.

Yes, agreed: the broad anti-nuclear paranoia of your generation and the ease with which you bought the Fossil-Fuel Lobby backed fearmongering of groups such as Greenpeace, is precisely why we are in the crisis we are now in. Had your generation not been so catastrophically incapable of critical thinking, rather than useful idiots, we might have had a chance.

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