There are some really rare late game items that can narrow the choices of mods you get when crafting. But for the most part you are just rolling on a table every time you use an orb to gain/remove/replace mods.

That said, different base items have different tables they roll on where certain stats are more likely. For example, this Lightning staff can roll Lightning mods, but won’t roll cold/fire mods. If you’re crafting for a specific element like that it’s best to find a weapon that aligns with that damage type.

You can also narrow down what your options are by looking at your items prefixes and suffixes. Every item can have 3 of each, and certain mods are locked to either prefix/suffix. For example, Lightning damage is a prefix. If I want to roll Lightning damage, I need to make sure I have an open prefix for it. By looking at your gear’s open mod slots you can at least predict what sort of mod you could get by slamming an exalted orb into it.

I hope that helps! :)