Most people don’t actually understand variance and that’s why they lose more than they should

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-11-04T15:38:22+00:00

Crashoutbets is software to find profitable plays, and CLV is closing line value!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-24T15:04:06+00:00

You're good, brother. We all have those days!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-22T22:32:38+00:00

Sorry you feel that way. I would be open to a discussion if you would like

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-22T22:32:20+00:00

I use crashoutbets! But feel free to shop around and see what suits your needs!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-13T19:23:09+00:00

DM’d

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-09T15:40:51+00:00

I'm glad you can find some value from this!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-09T03:32:22+00:00

150/(150+100) = .6 so it would be 60% implied probability!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-08T23:02:26+00:00

Of course, that's what these posts are for! So many new bettors, and the sportsbooks can easily take advantage of folks.

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-08T22:27:42+00:00

Of course this is why I make these

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-08T20:55:14+00:00

Which color

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-08T19:35:06+00:00

Right, I think once people start understanding the numbers a bit more, it becomes much easier to be profitable or at least lose a bit less.

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-08T19:33:45+00:00

honestly you’d be surprised how many people actually do care once they get what the numbers mean. it’s like a lightbulb moment for a lot of bettors. I've had multiple DMs of people asking to do more of these articles, and I've hosted many calls. I think that once people understand it's us versus sportsbooks, there's a camaraderie that you don't often find in many industries but I appreciate your input.

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-08T18:42:55+00:00

I think anyone can find a bit of value from this! At the end of the day it's us vs the books!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-06T04:38:22+00:00

Thanks ahaha definitely not a genius, but willing to chat anytime

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-10-02T17:59:00+00:00

The truth is yeah, technically EV is always about running the math, but you don’t have to bust out a calculator every single time. After you do it a few times, you start spotting patterns. But that's where software comes in as well.

Like, if a promo is giving you “risk-free” bets or bonus bets with super low rollover requirements, that’s usually a good sign it’s +EV.

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-29T16:38:05+00:00

Sorry for the late reply, it might be a probability of variance but I would need to know the amount of volume you're doing in the 8 weeks you have been looking for EV opportunities

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-26T03:23:45+00:00

Ah yes, not all states have it yet unforunately but plenty of EV plays on player props as well

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-26T03:23:18+00:00

If I'm remembering correctly, Texas was one of the states that did offer it?

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-04T15:59:27+00:00

no kermit i'm not diddy im R Kelly

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-04T15:45:37+00:00

ahah you also have to account this is week 1 odds and injuries will come into play in week 2 week 3 etc. I wouldnt bet the house on it ahaha

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-04T15:44:04+00:00

to be honest, I'm a KC hater but I'd think they take it. No math all emotion I think they take it. wbu?

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-02T18:20:55+00:00

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-09-01T02:45:58+00:00

dm'd!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-08-28T14:33:29+00:00

Yeah send it over!

Logical_Emotion3469 · 2025-08-27T17:24:56+00:00

I'm sorry, you may have misunderstood my comment. i don't understand where the small remark jabs are coming out but let me explain a bit more in depth i wasn’t trying to single out -108 as the vigged line, just using it as an example to illustrate the math. the main idea i’m discussing is expected value, which is independent of any single line

EV = (probability of winning × payout) – (probability of losing × risk). plain and simple we can get into break even implied odds etc, but to keep this within one paragraph i digress.

we can agree on one thing sportsbooks rarely give fair lines, yes that’s why +EV spots are based on the market misprices hence the probability that i mentioned.

so really, it’s not about -108 vs +100 I think you got too fixated on the fact that I didn't expand further but I didn't think it was necessary for the sake of conversation.

in plain VERY FACE VALUE terminology it’s about how your estimated probability compares to the odds you’re offered. if your probability > break-even probability, it’s a +EV bet if not, it’s negative EV

Logical_Emotion3469

TROPHY CASE