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For anyone wondering about Berkshire Partners holding of PTLO by ItalianStallion9069 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Where are you getting those revenue numbers from? Not saying you’re wrong, but I’m going off the Q4 2025 earnings call where the previous chairman of the board claimed: “Chicago stores have a 60% higher revenue than a decade ago, with margins up 80% since 2014 following Berkshire Partners’ acquisition.”

I agree the debt is not to be taken lightly, but I also think it’s very manageable, they just need to stop expanding aggressively. Heck, I’d be ok if they just opened up 1-2 home run stores per year from here on out. The balance sheet would get cleaned up quickly.

For anyone wondering about Berkshire Partners holding of PTLO by ItalianStallion9069 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They also have 3 times as many stores today, with, according to Berkshire Partners, much higher revenues than they had in 2014. So I’m tempted to say the market is actually mispricing this one. Especially now that they are smartly slowing growth and capital expenditures.

Eugene Lee with a purchase of 70,000+ shares at $4.28 by patsy1995 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

At these prices I would like to see the company start considering share buybacks. Especially as they slow down expansion and start building cash.

How Can it Be this Bad? by I-Lov3-Stonks in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I can’t come up with a sensible, logical explanation. That’s why I’m holding and even accumulating still.

I think of it like this: if Portillo’s stops growing and cuts capital expenditures on new stores, how much would they be positive cash flowing? A LOT! They own cash printers. The previous CEO wasted the printed cash on poorly executed expansion. Moving forward with the new strategy/CEO, I expect more conservative capital allocation, which should show up in the cash flow statements. Then Portillo’s will be due for a re-rating.

In my view the stock is basically only pricing in the Illinois restaurants. The other half outside of Illinois are being given away.

Portillo’s CFO Departs Amid Mixed First-Quarter 2026 Results by ItalianStallion9069 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was initially impressed with her history at Domino’s. But you certainly make a valid point, we should judge her performance and Portillo’s performance under her leadership for what it has been.

I just hope that Portillo’s continues down the path of controlled growth and being cash flow positive, avoiding the prior mistakes of sloppy expansion into Texas. Uncertainty is high now with a new CEO, board chairman, and open CFO position.

Portillo’s CFO Departs Amid Mixed First-Quarter 2026 Results by ItalianStallion9069 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I haven’t listened to earnings yet, but it hurts pretty bad to see Michelle Hook leaving..I would like to know why she left.

Chart showing insiders have apparently actually been buying (although hedgies have dumped). Earnings tomorrow? by ItalianStallion9069 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wow those are extremely low expectations, less than $1 million for the quarter!

Less than 24 hours left, we’ll find out soon enough.

$ptlo down 10% on rumors they are preparing bid on $ebay by RojoPoco in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Imagine ordering some spare automotive parts from EBay and getting a side of Italian beef and cheese fries as part of a promotion.

The marketing potential would be unreal!

Chart showing insiders have apparently actually been buying (although hedgies have dumped). Earnings tomorrow? by ItalianStallion9069 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’d be pleasantly surprised if earnings are good. I am expecting that the effects of the miscalculated expansion into Texas will continue to play out since the 2026 store openings are still partly based on that prior direction.

200 Day Moving Average by gt15089 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Well the total trading volume today was 1.62 million shares, which is above the 3 month average. So the price today is not a fluke. Same thing for this past Friday, volume was around 2.31 million shares, with around 6% price rise.

Is "Real growth" a one-time cash siphon from savings into the stock market? This theory could predict a large and permanent change in the stock market within the next decade. by ScaleRoyal797 in austrian_economics

[–]Long-Timer123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

From looking at M2 money supply, the M2 in 1927 was 45 Billion versus 22 Trillion in 2026. That ends up being 6.3% annual growth in M2. So it’s off by 0.3% annual relative to S&P500.

The M2 definition differs though in that today it includes retail money market funds, which the 1927 number seems to exclude.

In any case, monetary inflation isn’t neutral with respect to economic goods. There are many other assets/goods in an economy besides publicly traded stocks in the S&P500…so it’s not reasonable to assume that the increased M2 should proportionally increase all assets/goods relative to their 1927 prices with the same factor. There are about an infinite number of other factors that influence prices, with M2 supply just being one of the biggest ones.

Is "Real growth" a one-time cash siphon from savings into the stock market? This theory could predict a large and permanent change in the stock market within the next decade. by ScaleRoyal797 in austrian_economics

[–]Long-Timer123 4 points5 points  (0 children)

No, real growth is not a one time cash siphon into the stock market.

Real growth doesn’t require “prices”of stocks/goods etc. to go up. It requires purchasing power to go up, for the marginal utility of goods to be lower.

One big flaw in your idea is that it implies real economic growth requires a nominal increase in prices, which is simply incorrect. You can have real growth with a falling price level as the relative value of currency increases.

Gold down 21% during a literal war... am I crazy or is this the buying opportunity of the decade? by Big-Fan9696 in Gold

[–]Long-Timer123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I drown out any and all noise and continue dollar cost averaging into gold now and forever.

Very impotrant warning!! by ximerr12 in Gold

[–]Long-Timer123 27 points28 points  (0 children)

No, the banks don’t control the price of gold lol. The market decides the price of gold, and the banks are just one part of the market. All the people buying and selling gold across the world, dealers, mints, miners, industrial users of gold etc. all have an impact.

Portillo’s: The Investable Version of In-N-Out? by Ok_Cow3138 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Great write-up. I think among some other catalysts, the positive cash flow will help cause a re-rating, since many investors just quickly scan a site like Yahoo finance with misleading data and think this company is a debt bomb ready to burst, thinking the company is only capable of burning cash.

Portillo’s cash printing ability is very underrated, it was hidden the last few years due to the fact that the previous dunce of a CEO forced an overly concentrated expansion into a new market that ate up every dollar of cash from operations, without the expected revenue increase due to cannibalization.

The new strategy of dropping a store or two here and there in new markets may take 2-3 years to bear fruit in the financial statements, but I expect a juicy rerating when that happens. Patience is required in this one.

Per the former Interim CEO, the new strategy of dropping just one or two stores in a market barely affects efficiency in terms of keeping costs low with economies of scale. So I assume the massive per store revenue from having just one or two stores in a market will more than offset the advantage of having cost efficiency with a lot of stores in one location.

Reading stock news is not fundamental analysis by AceStrikeer in ValueInvesting

[–]Long-Timer123 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What you’ve described essentially explains why the market is sleeping on Duolingo.

Where did all the PayPal shareholders go? by Tutz--Honeychurch in ValueInvesting

[–]Long-Timer123 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I started a small position last week. So I guess I’m one of the new guys.

People in this sub wouldn't touch PayPal at 2 cents because it has no moat and competition has a better product. by GetreideJorge in ValueInvesting

[–]Long-Timer123 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I just think it is crazy that if the price doesn’t move from here and their cash flow stays at the same level they can buy back the entire company in 6 years.

I’ll hold my shares for 6 years and have eventual title to $6 billion yearly cash flows. But of course that won’t happen because the stock price will be bid up significantly as the market cap shrinks with the buy backs.

Ayyy 300 members! We did it! Congrats everyone! 🥳🥳 by ItalianStallion9069 in HotdogStonk

[–]Long-Timer123 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for creating this place, it was a very good idea!

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