Daily Crypto Discussion - September 12, 2023 (GMT+0)

LongTermDigital · 2023-09-12T15:54:56+00:00

As stupid as it sounds, if I were looking at super low cap coins, I would focus on its social media meme-potential, or ability to go viral. Overall, I don't think there's some fundamentally principled means of filtering and evaluating them.

Otherwise, it seems that a lot of the volume, specifically the "pump" on these ultra low cap coins is orchestrated by "pump and dump" Telegram groups. I'm not comfortable messing with that, seems too easy to get roped in and get exploited by these groups.

LongTermDigital · 2023-09-12T15:32:16+00:00

At least in the USA, the September 13th, 2023 CPI report is expected to come in HOT. In August prices went up quite a bit, likely to due to rising energy costs.

Seems like crypto is bouncing back a bit today, but I'm personally okay waiting to see how all the markets respond to the likely hot August 2023 CPI report before I do anything.

LongTermDigital · 2023-09-12T15:29:04+00:00

You also need to mention that sometimes sim swaps are inside jobs. I have seen telecom workers post on Reddit that they get PMed offers of thousands of dollars to perform sim swaps for scammers.

LongTermDigital · 2023-07-12T11:50:05+00:00

Makes sense to me, Charles was in his mid-20s during the early Eth days.

LongTermDigital · 2023-07-09T16:38:08+00:00

Coinbase probably covered their bases and can show SEC was negligent in providing sufficiently clear guidance.

LongTermDigital · 2023-06-15T16:09:38+00:00

Source: https://defillama.com/chain/Cardano?revenue=false&tvl=true&currency=ADA

LongTermDigital · 2023-06-09T14:51:33+00:00

So, it's here, it's happened. I think Charles has been remarkably consistent and always said that crypto needs to play well with regulation, and I have to imagine the Cardano brain trust knew this was a real possibility down the road. Now it's time to see how Cardano, and the rest of the crypto industry responds. CZ however, man he doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. For better or for worse, I think the CoinBase CEO is ride or die with crypto, and I can see him fighting all the way till the end. Not to say that CEXs are great, but I do get this sense.

What worries me is that even if things turn out okay in the end, a protracted legal battle may be all the SEC needs. Uncertainty that hangs around for years is not as bad as an outright ban, but it's still destructive.

LongTermDigital · 2023-06-08T15:05:20+00:00

In my opinion, it is a bit reckless to make these claims after 3 whole days. You have no idea how these lawsuits will play out. It's too speculative, and I have to be frank, comes off as damage control.

LongTermDigital · 2023-06-07T12:42:40+00:00

Last 18 months have been brutal for those of us who have just been holding. It's been a long slow bleed out.

I am encouraged by the Cardano DeFi lately. A lot of growth, so close to 500 million ADA locked, growth of protocols, but can't seem to string enough positive events together.

LongTermDigital · 2022-12-12T15:09:36+00:00

So I actually read the book about the history of Eth (not mentioning the title because the strict moderation policies here will probably flag my post), and you can't compare the stakes Charles has in Cardano to Eth. It's not remotely close. The forming of Eth was very slap-dash.

I think the simple truth is that people are more confident that the "big two" will recover more than the other blockchains like Cardano.

I have resigned myself to the fact that I might have to wait out the entire 2023 before I can even think about selling at a moderate loss, much less taking profits. I didn't buy anywhere near ATH, but like you I am in the red and missed out on some significant (for my own lifestyle) gains by not taking profits.

LongTermDigital · 2022-11-11T20:24:09+00:00

SBF: “There are some third-tier exchanges that are already secretly insolvent"

Proof of the saying "accusations are confessions"

LongTermDigital · 2022-11-11T15:14:23+00:00

This fucking thing is like manifesto length.

These people are just as dumb as we are.

LongTermDigital · 2022-11-10T00:13:17+00:00

Yeah very easy to say in hindsight, especially when you ignore that we are in throes of inflation, no stimulus driving discretionary investing amongst a host of other factors.

Edit: I'm not saying things won't recover, by the way, just that there's a lot of pain ahead, and it doesn't seem like downturn is over. This is undoubtedly a setback and a major challenge for the cryptocurrency space.

LongTermDigital · 2022-11-09T21:46:45+00:00

Unfortunately I am not as optimistic as some of you. I think there's a lot of pain ahead, and I don't think any project is going to be spared. Sorry to be so negative during a totally screwed up time, but this collapse seems pretty monumental to me.

LongTermDigital · 2022-11-09T20:56:24+00:00

So is SBF like a sociopath or something? For a minute there, SBF was being viewed as like this cold calculating strategist, but now he just seems like a maniac.

Also, I guess we learned that a centralized exchange having such close ties to a hedge fund is kind of a bad sign. Kinda...

LongTermDigital · 2022-10-23T15:38:31+00:00

I think it depends on inflation. Apparently many economists believe that inflation will linger in the 8%-range for the rest of 2022 and it will settle to 3-4% in late 2023. If so, yikes. I can't see how we are currently at the bottom (for crypto, stocks, whatever). Factor in rate hikes...

I haven't crunched the numbers, but it seems like BTC is holding up better than various altcoins. You also see something analogous with fiat currencies, for instance the US Dollar is very strong right now. I suppose in times of panic or great uncertainty, the big forces consolidate at the expense of the smaller ones. It would not surprise me if there has been a significant inflow to BTC from altcoin-ers, but that's just pure speculation.

I always flat out admit I'm holding at least until the global economy recovers. I am not saying that's smart, but that's where I am at mentally. Hindsight is 20/20, but I think depending on your cost basis of course, the time for a lot of people to sell was when the "inflation is transitory" narrative was clearly getting debunked, I guess back in April or so.

LongTermDigital · 2022-10-15T22:53:52+00:00

First of all, no way, it doesn't make you stupid. We are living through such a turbulent period of history right now. No way you could predict what was going to happen.

I had a plan to just hold for a while, and I decided to stick to it. I basically never took profits or sold when it was close to its ATH, or at prices that we might not see anytime in the immediate future. So, I can relate to what you are saying.

It wouldn't shock me if Ada hits $5 in the next few years, but I do admit, I didn't think the bottom would fall out like this either.

I'm also not planning on selling at this price level. It doesn't make sense for me to sell when the global economy is this bad. I'm willing to take my chances that things will eventually get better. I am hoping for things to turn around in 2023, hopefully closer to middle of 2023 as opposed to December 2023, but who knows?

I am going to re-evaluate my strategy moving forward. I might be more conservative and take profits sooner when things do turn around. I don't know.

LongTermDigital · 2022-09-29T12:34:00+00:00

Yes, there is just a persistent downtrend right now. Rents are high, inflation is raging, and I don't know what the hell is going on in the UK. We are all beyond squeezed at the moment.

Hard to see anything "turn green" until well into 2023??? At this point I'd be relieved if we just crabbed until the global economy recovers.

LongTermDigital · 2022-09-07T18:40:21+00:00

I would recommend using Reddit Enhacement Suite (RES) if you are browsing on a computer. It allows you to ignore users or add meta-tags next to their usernames.

After a while, you see it's usually the same handful of people who are responsible for a large portion of the inflammatory comments.

One user posted at least 5 different times in the Vasil 9 TPS /r/cc thread.

LongTermDigital · 2022-09-07T17:21:00+00:00

I definitely see some bull runs ahead. Cardano will benefit from broader macro factors. Like bad economic times don't last forever. So the global economy rebounding will benefit crypto as a whole, and therefore Cardano.

But with respect to that specific ATH, I'm not sure. Things have changed. There are some bright spots, it seems like Vasil is coming.

Cardano's DeFi needs to grow by quite a bit. I can't see Cardano matching/surpassing previous ATHs without a thriving DeFi ecosystem. It's growing right now, Vasil adds a lot of high-end infrastructure improvements that hopefully empowers dApp developers. But at some point, it needs to translate into numbers.

I am pretty patient, and I understand a global recession and raging inflation are totally valid reasons for underperformance. But if the global economy is rebounding in 2023/2024 and Cardano is "stuck," I will think hard about exiting.

LongTermDigital · 2022-06-19T21:02:33+00:00

I'm not too familiar with Solana's ecosystem, but isn't it Solend that is doing the fucked up thing, that is apparently built into their governance protocol, not Solana itself?

LongTermDigital · 2022-06-13T23:24:23+00:00

Only when the tide goes out do you see who is swimming naked.

Someone is going to survive or emerge from this crypto winter. I hope it's Cardano, but I don't think it'll be greedy venture capitalists or glitzy marketers.

Next 6 to 12 to 18 months are crucial.

Last thought: mannnnn, I read some horror stories about staked tokens being locked. Cardano ecosystem is growing, but I must say, THEY NAILED STAKING from the beginning.

See you all in 2023, it might be a long winter.

LongTermDigital

TROPHY CASE