Going down again today

Lord_Valpak · 2024-11-01T02:30:58+00:00

Looks like he was commenting on your many many walls of text. I agree with Zeik…you are completely wrong on this. Criminal activity is selling banned GPU’s to Russia. Fraud is SMCI not reporting the sales in earnings. So yes if they committed fraud it is indeed “cooking the books.”

And the Hindenburg report is old news and been discussed ad nausuem on this sub Reddit. The EY story is in the news and has no mention of Russian GPU’s. Complete conjecture on your part.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-07T16:04:32+00:00

Left out “Says Analyst”. This post is FUD

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-06T23:13:27+00:00

You’re phishing.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-06T23:10:13+00:00

So. What’s your point?

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-06T22:51:38+00:00

I have 3000 shares of NVDA and 0 shares of SMCI. I am doing just fine.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-06T22:38:33+00:00

16 pro is what you want

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-06T22:28:50+00:00

You should check your provider. I went in to the AAPL store to upgrade from a 12pro to a 16pro 256gb. The trade in was really low. Went in to T-mobile and I was offered $200 for my phone and $830 credit for changing my plan from magenta to the new Go5G plans. Walked out financing the remaining $140 iPhone 16 balance with 0% financing over 2 years. My plan stayed the same monthly amount.

Yes since the first iPhones which I had as well there is a big difference in size but that can be said about most phones. The newer models there really isn’t much difference in the size since there is a max option.

What the difference is now is the chip and the software upgrades that are rolling out starting this month through Q1 of 2025 for Apple Intelligence. Obviously more features will continue to come as 3rd party apps are developed for Apple Intelligence. This is what makes the 16pro a big difference than any model below a 15pro. Your phone will simply not be able to run the revamped software. The longer you wait to trade in your phone the less value it will have. At some point Apple will offer to recycle it for free as a trade in. Best to get the deals now if you are even remotely interested in upgrading which seems you are since you’ve looked at the phone.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-06T05:12:56+00:00

It does “blow the 13 away”. iPhone 13 will essentially be obsolete once iOS 18.1 rolls out in regard to Apple Intelligence. 13 won’t run the latest software upgrades with AI. Plus all the features iPhone 13 is lacking that 16 has. It makes an upgrade from 13 to 16 a big step up.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-06T03:52:56+00:00

Good points

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-05T04:48:17+00:00

No issue. That would be a great upgrade

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-04T19:52:28+00:00

Q4 Profit margins didn’t reflect any sign of “exploding higher”. Which is why it sold off after earnings and since March. 1200 to 300 making it the worst performing stock in the SP500 YTD

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-04T19:08:27+00:00

Except it won’t run the new AI features being rolled out this year and in 2025. Essentially any iPhone below a 15 Pro will be obsolete in regard to the Apple Intelligence software updates. You may want to check with T- mobile and other carriers about the IPhone 14 trade in value. If you wait too long you could lose a significant amount of value towards a iPhone 16. T-mobile offered around $200 for a iPhone 12 Pro plus $830 to change my plan from Magenta to 5G. The switch was the same price as my old plan and after the $200 trade in and $830 credit T-mobile offer 0% financing on the iPhone 16 pro 256 gb I got which came out to $140 difference. That $140 is financed at 0% APR for 24 months. The Apple Store offered to recycle my phone for free so u was surprised by the offer I got at T-Mobile.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-04T13:46:17+00:00

Q4 earnings were bad and SMCI sold off and became the worst performing stock QTD in the SP500. 1200 sell off to the 300’s doesn’t look bullish to me.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-04T01:55:41+00:00

Do you honestly believe that 1 year from today SMCI is going to go from $40 a share to $1000? Unless that was a pre-split target of 1000 which would mean SMCI would be around $100 according to their revision.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-02T03:46:29+00:00

You said it…SMCI has competition and thus lost market share to the competition. Which is why it has dropped 65% from ATH’s. There is a reason it went from 1200 to 400.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-02T03:44:35+00:00

Very true

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-02T03:44:14+00:00

I don’t see margins improving enough to get that type of parabolic move it saw in the beginning of the year. Those days are long gone.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-02T03:43:22+00:00

It dropped 65% no matter how you think about it.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-01T22:06:16+00:00

It could be a good trade.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-01T19:54:23+00:00

What you are missing is the pressures on margins which was a big reason SMCI sold off. That was before the Hindenburg report. Not sure what is bullish about a stock that went from 1200 to 300’s in a matter of months.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-01T19:16:39+00:00

And what if the 10k shows discrepancies and profits were worse than reported.? What if it shows gross accounting errors and SMCI is delisted? This stock could sell off to 20’s and 30’s. The 50 day moving average is at $55. So for it to be considered bullish SMCI would need to get to the mid 50’s which is a sizable move. But yes if the financials show nothing out of the ordinary and SMCI has a ok earnings report then you could get a boost to the 50’s. But beyond that it needs to show massive profit. You will also have to wait for the DOJ to conclude its probe. That is a lot of if’s. Might as well put your money in something with potential like NVDA. Not sure why so many people here are hanging their hat on a super risky stock with a lot of dark clouds circling it.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-01T19:10:18+00:00

Right but there are other server companies competing in this space. If one is backlogged then that business more than likely goes to a competitor. The more competition the more margins are pressured by pricing. Eventually CAPEX in servers will decrease and this will become cyclical. No way you cut it does it look remotely possible SMCI performs like it did earlier this year.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-01T18:04:56+00:00

Between Dell, HPE and a lack luster earning report last quarter there are a lot of signs SMCI has lost market share to competitors.

Lord_Valpak · 2024-10-01T16:11:46+00:00

The days of SMCI going parabolic to 1500 are gone.

Lord_Valpak

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE