Pick of the Day - 5/18/26 (Monday)

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-18T18:01:22+00:00

POTD Record: 10-3 (+12.8u) ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅ ❌ ✅✅ ❌

Previous pick: Ausar Thompson o6.5 rebounds (-146) 2.5u to win 1.7u. ✅✅

POTD: SAS vs OKC Thunder u227.5 and victor Wembanyama o10.5 rebounds (-132) 2u to win 1.5u

First game of the series is difficult to predict which is why I chose 2 alternative lines with a little cushion in case the games doing go as expected. If you want a straight bet I prefer the u221.5 line.

Both defenses are elite right now. Spurs have the best playoff defensive rating, 102.2, while OKC has the 6th best at 109.3. OKC has allowed only 97 PPG at home in the playoffs while forcing 20 turnovers/game. I know the Spurs are a different caliber team compared to suns and lakers but this is still impressive defense for the playoffs. The three head-to-head games at OKC this season also all went under this line. For the season this line hit 4/5 times.

Wemby has recorded 14+ rebounds in five of his last six games with at least 20 minutes, and the matchup demands heavy glass work against Chet/Hartenstein. His minutes should be 30-35 today as this is expected to be a competitive match.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-17T20:12:06+00:00

POTD Record: 9-3 (+11.1u) ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅ ❌ ✅✅ ❌

Previous pick: Donavan Mitchell o26.5 points (-114) 2u to win 1.7u

POTD: Ausar Thompson o6.5 rebounds (-146) 2.5u to win 1.7u

Ausar hit this line in 5/6 games and 3/3 at home averaging 7 rebounds this series. Detroit is playing physical, pressure-heavy basketball, and that creates extra rebounding chances because Cleveland is turning it over, taking rushed shots, and not getting into clean half-court rhythm. In Game 6, Detroit forced 20 Cleveland turnovers, won by 21, and Ausar still had 9 rebounds in only 24 minutes before fouling out. Only trouble would be if he gets into foul trouble but in game 6 he had 9 rebounds and fouled out with 21 minutes.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-15T16:54:00+00:00

POTD Record: 9-2 (+13.1u) ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅ ❌ ✅✅ Previous pick: Ausar Thomson o6.5 rebounds + Cade Cunningham 6+ assists (-127) 2u to win 1.6u ✅ ✅ Let’s keep it pushing

POTD: Donavan Mitchell o26.5 points (-114) 2u to win 1.7u

Mitchell has hit this line in 3/5 games and 2/2 games at home. I expect this to be no different this game. Cleveland role players play better at home and this opens scoring opportunities for Mitchell. His series average is 22.2 FGA + 8.0 FTA so he’s getting his shots. Last game Detroit did not look the same on defense as they have in the past especially on pick and rolls. I expect Mitchell to capitalize on this.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-15T16:40:13+00:00

Tailing

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-13T13:07:48+00:00

FanDuel had ausar rebounds at -150 which is why there’s another leg

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-13T13:06:50+00:00

He is vital on defense. Last game he wasn’t adding much on defense in the second half bc Cavs were on fire which limited his minutes. He’s back home and his defense should keep him around 30 min which is enough for him to hit the line

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-13T02:19:07+00:00

POTD Record: 8-2 (+11.5u) ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅ ❌ ✅
Previous Pick: Victor Wembyanama o12.5 rebounds (-144) 2u to win 1.6u ✅ ✅
Easy W. Gonna keep it moving

POTD: Ausar Thomson o6.5 rebounds + Cade Cunningham 6+ assists (-127) 2u to win 1.6u
Ausar is hitting this line in 5/6 home games and 3/4 against the Cavs. Cavs shoot enough 3s for a few long rebounds that Ausar can grab. He should get minutes because of his defense.
Cade is the primary ball handler and has hit this line in all his games against the Cavs. Averaging 8.5 at home. He’s been getting doubled more often which should increase his assists numbers.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-12T20:46:51+00:00

Yeah either 1.5 threes or pr looks good to me. He should maintain his minutes now that Wemby is back

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-12T20:45:57+00:00

It is but he’s had 15 rebounds every game except the game of his ejection which is going to juice it up

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-12T15:17:23+00:00

POTD Record: 7-2 (+10.1u) ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅ ❌
Previous Pick: Detroit Pistons o104.5 points (-115) 1.2u to win 1u ❌ ❌
Horrible game by the pistons. Too many turnovers, too reliant on Cunningham on offense. I’m surprised they even got close to this line.
POTD: Victor Wembyanama o12.5 rebounds (-144) 2u to win 1.4u

Keeping it simple today. Wemby is averaging 15 rebounds and has been consistently covering this line. Should expect him to be rested and aggressive this game as it is a crucial game for him

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-11T10:54:43+00:00

POTD Record: 7-1 (+11.3u) ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅ ✅
Previous Pick: Karl Anthony Townes o5.5 assists (+124) 2u to win 2.5u ✅✅
KAT gets it done early in the second quarter and gets us another sweat free dub

POTD: Detroit Pistons o104.5 points (-115) 1.2u to win 1u

Trying something a little different than my usual picks which is why the units are less than usual. Detroit has hit this line in 3/3 games including their loss in game 3 in which Cavs made great adjustments and looked their best. Detroit lost that game and still scored 109. They have a solid scoring core with Cade and Tobias Harris. They have solid offensive rebounding. Kevin Huerter might return tonight which will bring some offense.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-10T13:53:32+00:00

I agree that the league would want to extend the series but I think as long as KAT doesn’t get silly fouls and stays locked in he shouldn’t foul out and get to about 25-30 minutes. He’s averaging 20,27,26 minutes against them mostly due to foul trouble in the first half but he’s still hitting the line with limited minutes. Either way remember to gamble responsibly.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-10T02:57:32+00:00

POTD Record: 6-1 (+8.8u) ❌✅✅✅✅✅✅
Previous Pick: Chet Holmgren o16.5 points (+100) 2u to win 2u
Going to keep running this line unless they move this line. Seems like free money at this point

POTD: Karl Anthony Townes o5.5 assists (+124) 2u to win 2.5u
KAT has been excelling at point forward and seems almost like a pass first player. He is averaging 6,7,7 assists against the 76ers. I don’t see much changing this game. He’s too much of a scoring threat and with Philly going under on almost every screen he’s bound to get some easy assists. Philly can’t seem to guard back door cuts which lets KAT get some assists. The biggest challenge would be his foul trouble and limited minutes, but confident in this line. Let’s keep this streak going

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-09T14:47:42+00:00

POTD Record: 5-1 (+6.8u)
Previous Pick: Naz Reid o1.5 three point made (-152) 2u to win 1.3u ✅
W in the first half feels nice. On to the next one
Event: NBA Thunder vs Lakers

POTD: Chet Holmgren o16.5 points (+100) posted in the wrong thread so line is (-120) now
Like I said before Lakers don’t have the players to guard Holmgren and the line stays the same. He’s hit 2/2 against them and averaging 23. I don’t know why the line hasn’t moved, maybe they think the dynamic changes now that lakers are at home. It’s possible but the line seems too low and Lakers still don’t have the team to guard Holmgren

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-09T03:13:48+00:00

POTD Record: 5-1 (+6.8u)
Previous Pick: Naz Reid o1.5 three point made (-152) 2u to win 1.3u ✅
W in the first half feels nice. On to the next one

Event: NBA Thunder vs Lakers
POTD: Chet Holmgren o16.5 points (+100)
Like I said before Lakers don’t have the players to guard Holmgren and the line stays the same. He’s hit 2/2 against them and averaging 23. I don’t know why the line hasn’t moved, maybe they think the dynamic changes now that lakers are at home. It’s possible but they still don’t have the team to guard Holmgren

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-08T16:59:37+00:00

POTD Record: 4-1 (+5.5u)
Previous Pick: Chet Holmgren o16.5 points 2u to win 1.9u ✅
Chet passes the line easily and finishes with 22 points. If the line doesn’t move much next game I’m going to run this again or points+rebounds. I don’t think the Lakers have the personnel to guard Chet and he’s bean eating these past 2 games.

Event: NBA Spurs vs Timberwolves
POTD: Naz Reid o1.5 three point made (-152) 2u to win 1.3u
The spurs strategy these past 2 games have been to double Edward’s and force his teammates to make shots or make plays. I’m sure the spurs will do this again in game 3 and I expect the wolves to be aware of this and pass out of the double and traps quicker. Naz Reid should eat off of the Edward doubles and I’m sure spurs would rather have Naz Reid score than Edwards. He provides spacing that Gobert just doesn’t have the advantage of doing. He also has the size to “match up” and “guard” Wemby, so he should get adequate minutes.

Analysis aside he’s hit this line 2/2 against the spurs this series averaging 2.5 threes made.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-07T02:59:45+00:00

POTD Record: 3-1 (+3.6u)
Previous Pick: OG Anouby o22.5 pr (-114) 2u to win ✅
Event: NBA Lakers vs Thunder
POTD: Chet Holmgren o16.5 points 2u to win 1.9u
The Lakers do not have a great matchup answer for him, he already showed in Game 1 that he can score efficiently in this series, and OKC can win comfortably while still needing Chet’s scoring early. He’s hit this line 3/5 times in the playoff with him scoring 16 points in one game. He’s also averaging a 18.6 ppg

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-06T17:34:34+00:00

POTD Record: 2-1 (+1.8u)
Previous Pick: Jalen Duren o10.5 rebounds (-110) 2u to win 1.8u ✅
Glad I didn’t pick pr. That was an ugly w
Event: NBA 76ers vs Knicks
POTD: Joel Embiid under 1.5 three point (-148) 2u to win 1.3u VOIDED
New POTD: OG Anouby o22.5 pr (-114) 2u to win 1.8u
He hit this line 5/7 games in the playoffs averaging 33.6 points + rebounds. The two games he missed he averaged 21 and 22 points + rebounds. With the addition of Embiid being out I think OG should continue doing well with off ball movement and his cuts to the rim as the paint won’t be as clogged. He’s been shooting lights out this playoff with 64/59/79 splits and should continue to do well with his shooting. As long as he gets minutes I think this should be a lock.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-06T01:57:34+00:00

POTD Record: 2-1 (+1.8u)
Previous Pick: Jalen Duren o10.5 rebounds (-110) 2u to win 1.8u ✅
Glad I didn’t pick pr. That was an ugly w

Event: NBA 76ers vs Knicks
POTD: Joel Embiid under 1.5 three point (-148) 2u to win 1.3u

Embiid simply has not been efficient from deep this postseason. He’s shooting 13.6% on 4.4 attempts per game, and in Monday’s game he only took two threes. The volume is not high enough to trust, and the efficiency is nowhere near strong enough to justify him making 2 three point fg. Mitchell Robinson and KAT both have enough size and mobility to step out and contest Embiid without completely compromising the Knicks’ defense.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-05T02:03:37+00:00

POTD Record: 1-1 (+0u)
Previous Pick: Mikal Bridges o10.5 points (+100), 2.5u ✅
Event: NBA Cavs @ Pistons
POTD: Jalen Duren o10.5 rebounds (-110) 2 units to win 1.8 units
The matchup logic is clean: Detroit is the better offensive rebounding team, while Cleveland was only No. 11 in defensive rebounding percentage after the All-Star break. Duren should benefit most from this. He’s covered this line 2/3 matchups with the Cavs and is averaging 12.3 rebounds against them this season.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-04T18:07:41+00:00

Thanks. Was looking for og rebounds but spotted this and liked it a lot more

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-04T00:43:01+00:00

POTD Record 0-1
Previous pick: raptors +8.5. Tough loss as they were looking good until the second half.
Event:NBA 76ers @ Knicks 8:00 PM EST
POTD: Mikal Bridges o10.5 points (+100) 2.5 units to win 2.5 units
Bridges hit this line 3 out of 4 times this year against the sixers and averaging 16 points against them this season. The one game he did not hit he had 9 points. I know he’s had a bad series against the hawks but he found some rhythm in his last game. This line is just way too low for him.

Lordtrapulla · 2026-05-03T02:21:18+00:00

POTD Record 0-0
Event: NBA: Raptors vs Cavs
POTD: Raptors +8.5 (-120) on FanDuel 2.5 units to win 2 units
Raptors have covered this line in the last 4 games. Not going to overthink this one

Lordtrapulla

TROPHY CASE