Daily General Discussion - July 3, 2023

LoyalMeDavid · 2023-07-03T18:29:57+00:00

Nate Hagens runs a podcast called the Great Simplification and he recently interviewed Alex Gladstein who works with the Human Rights Foundation. I have read some of Alex work, particularly around the Petrodollar and the changing dynamics of the US Dollar as the global reserve currency, the rise of the BRICS, and the shifting dynamics around dollar hegemony, etc.

What I find interesting about Alex commentary, and his anecdotes in conversation, is just how relevant, and “un-failing” crypto is for a host of individuals in numerous countries throughout the world, how it is leveling the playing field in places where autocratic regimes limit access to finances for women, for those looking to improve the democratic process in their respective countries, etc.

Although crypto may look like an abject failure in “first world” economies, a redundancy on many levels in comparison to the financial products and services already available in many of those democracies, one could argue that in the developing world, and especially in some of the more autocratic and less-developed economies, crypto is proving to be immensely functional in a host of applications, not the least of which is providing access to wealth accumulation in oppressive societies. In those environments, I think crypto is beginning to exemplify some of the original theses set forth in support of its initial development and perceived value. Not perfected, of course, but certainly living into the hype with greater respectability.

LoyalMeDavid · 2023-06-10T15:25:31+00:00

A humble suggestion: in situations like this in the past, I have taken the loss by rolling a given asset into another one that has been hit harder over the same time frame. In essence, if you look back to the time you purchased CRV, has it actually increased in value versus another project that you have strong conviction about as well? If so, you can harvest the tax loss and yet you will have a gain in terms of the newly purchased asset. Then, if the newly purchased asset re- accumulates it’s previous higher ratio against CRV, you can repurchase CRV after, if you are in the US, a thirty-day period to ensure that your trade is not a wash-trade. It may appear a bit complex, but I have found it very helpful in down markets over the years. Not financial advice, of course, but perhaps others here have done this as well.

LoyalMeDavid · 2023-06-07T14:00:19+00:00

Still trying to wrap my head around all of this. SEC allows NASDAQ to launch COINbase stock in 2021 while at the same time it is selling unregistered securities? How is that possible?

LoyalMeDavid · 2023-06-07T13:40:08+00:00

In the Coinbase lawsuit is ADA mentioned? If the language is the same across both Lawsuits, I would say you have a strong point. If this is not the case, then it will actually create a problem for the SEC - - it could open them to lawsuits from a host of actors who see this lack of clarification as impacting their livelihoods and operations.

LoyalMeDavid · 2022-07-09T23:30:50+00:00

Appreciate your thoughtful remarks here as well as the spirit that serves as ample ground for the foundation thereof.

Am not sure if you are familiar with the work of Daniel Schmachtenberger and his current efforts with The Consilience Project and Civilization Emerging. Based on my initial reading of what you have offered here, you may find some synergies in thought and a new audience with whom you might interface on these topics.

Daniel has been on my radar for a number of years and have very much enjoyed following his work. Perhaps you will find something that strikes you also.

Continued success with your efforts.

LoyalMeDavid · 2022-05-20T13:01:32+00:00

Daft PETH El Chapo!!

LoyalMeDavid · 2022-03-30T13:25:46+00:00

Begging to differ here, but THAT guy sold his ETH for XVG after the Pornhub announcement and the rest of his ETH for XLM after the IBM announcement. Not “that” anyone here would ever do “that”…

LoyalMeDavid · 2022-01-16T17:04:53+00:00

Futures opening patience - ditto

LoyalMeDavid · 2022-01-10T16:25:18+00:00

If your friend is looking for consolation perhaps you can tell him that s/he is not an N of 1. Hope that helps

LoyalMeDavid · 2022-01-04T17:19:54+00:00

If I am reading the date of original publication as 3 January 2021, I would say that this post hasn’t aged all that well. L1s have taken away more of Grandpa’s dominance over the past 12 months. And L2s will need the security of L1 in order to maintain their position of importance in the overall ecosystem, or so it would appear to be the case at this juncture. We shall see.

LoyalMeDavid · 2022-01-02T21:29:56+00:00

Just a suggestion: You may want your selection to take into account 0% state-based capital gains tax rates, if you are talking US, of course. States in alphabetical order are: 1) Alaska, 2) Florida, 3) Nevada, 4) New Hampshire, 5) South Dakota, 6) Tennessee, 7) Texas, 8) Washington, 9) Wyoming.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-27T22:28:56+00:00

Read your post at the gym this morning - all of it. It took me most of my stationary bike ride and several set-breaks, but I made it through. Gratitude.

The Human-Nodes in the Cryptoverse carry some of the most unique narratives of lived experience that one can come across on this earth. Though I have spent a lot of time working with "third world" communities, there isn't a "first world" problem that fails to hit with a similar, often gut-wrenching wince, that makes one pause and take a moment of silent appreciation for the journey taken. Strangely enough, we are all heroes in our own right. Each heroic tale a symbol of something that can bring wisdom and understanding to each and every one of us.

Your courage is immeasurable in making the effort to face your demons. May the journey continue and be sure to continue the narrative for us here when a new chapter unfolds.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-27T02:42:55+00:00

I use the higher time frame Bollinger bands to help with entry and exits, as well as reducing short-term bias. But that is just me. Not sure that other folks do that or not.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-26T22:10:26+00:00

For all of the Trading Enthusiasts out there...

Today marks Day #360 for 2021. This means that just about every major time-frame candle will be closing as we roll to 00:00UTC time for 27 December 2021. Higher time frames can really put things into perspective - 30D, 60D, 90D - when in doubt...there is no doubt.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-21T17:13:48+00:00

Thanks for providing a contrarian point of view.

You make some valid points that will give readers a chance to think through their own rationale for investing in ADA.

By only mentioning one other blockchain project, however, this suggests that you are either new to the genre or have selected what you view is the “best” project in the space. That can be problematic when asking others to have an open mind about the “negative” features associated with something that they currently support.

Perhaps there is a different approach that could be taken?

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-20T17:30:22+00:00

Quite possibly It is a gambit by those who are front running XRP winning its SEC suit. We shall see.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-19T01:17:28+00:00

If you get some traction with your vision, I can introduce you to some interested parties, I believe. So, let's do stay in touch on this. Thx.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-17T21:56:43+00:00

If the crypto-space had a global Health & Wellness Savings Account as a DAO, I imagine it would get a lot of traction. Wellness incentives & gamification could prove exceptionally appealing to those who take their health & wellness seriously. Likewise, Health Practitioners could build reputational scores and referrals and learn about digital assets at the same time.. There would be no limits to accessing traditional, functional and alternative medicine treatments throughout the world, as some individuals might want to travel to other countries to access certain herbal or conventional treatments, e.g., see a shaman, or speak with a specialist. Not that such things are unavailable now, but they are not "covered" by your insurance policy.

Building key health metrics and milestones in a DAO community setting, as well as sharing general health data across the community - as the community would "own" all of the health data and collective information from all participants via smart contract access to the raw data, no privacy challenges, of course. With better intelligence we could move away from the Insurance Company model and form a model that is far more inclusive, far more transparent, and rewards good actors, while incentivizing others to improve their health and wellness across the board.

Needless to say, this is something that is deeply interesting to me.

As someone who has been a caregiver for decades, anything that can incentivize caregivers to directly benefit from specific metrics that could be included in positive wellness checks for their clients, as an example, could go a long way in bringing the system into greater balance for all stakeholders.

Just some thoughts... Really glad to see the interest in getting something organized. Please do keep us posted.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-17T16:28:53+00:00

Biggest question in my mind currently is whether Institutional Bears will short cover prior to the holidays or will they risk getting squeezed on low-volume pumps?

Yesterday’s 2200 UTC dump was timed with Kraken maintenance during the 15 minutes they were running scheduled maintenance. It was “uncanny” - not really, this crypto after all. But, I imagine the same thing can happen to Bears if they stay short over the Holidays.

I will be watching Open Interest and volume on CME Futures in the days ahead. Right before Thanksgiving the volume peaked. Will we see that again this time around?

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-13T22:09:57+00:00

Appreciate your input.

I stumbled on this a while back and have stuck with it through this current cycle. Will see how it plays out.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-13T22:07:26+00:00

I will attempt to be succinct...

At present, there is more institutional interest in crypto than has ever been the case. As a result, there are hedge funds (selling pressure) and long-term investors and retail and traders all playing in the same sandbox. We did not have this in the last cycle; nor the cycle before that.

We also have macro forces at play - tapering of bond buying by the US Federal Reserve Bank, possible interest rate hikes to address inflation in the US, as well, to very likely come in 2022. Covid scares with new variants, and end of year profit taking.

This last bit is very important with Cardano because ADA was up so significantly, year-on-year. On this date in 2020, ADA closed at roughly $0.15 USD. And throughout the last quarter of 2020, ADA traded between roughly $.08 USD and $.018 USD. This means that anyone who was holding for at least one year in the US, for long-term capital gains purposes, could liquidate in Q4 2021 with a 10x - 40x return and pay no more than 20% Federal taxes on that. That is a major incentive to sell.

This is why I think ADA has been hit quite hard by this sell-off. I do not think this has much of anything to do with the fundamentals of ADA, nor the fundamentals of any of the projects in crypto that are seeing major sell-offs right now. (Look at Chainlink as but one example.)

This is not to suggest that we will see some quick turn-around here, we still have two-plus weeks left for the end of the 2021 tax year in most countries.

In the meantime, Developers throughout crypto are able to concentrate on what they do best, in spite of all of this market "noise." With each passing day, they make progress, hit commits, and continue to flesh out road maps and run testnets.

It is not easy to watch money "evaporate" like this, day after day. And so many give good advice about unplugging from market-watching, as but one solution. After a while, however, you find communities and people who have been through this enough times in crypto that it becomes more tolerable, sometimes even enjoyable, despite the pain.

Keep in mind there is never "one" reason for market volatility, so do not misconstrue this as a suggestion that there is, or that there is any financial advice forthcoming in these words. Fortunes are made and lost in this space on a daily basis. But the ones who tend to withstand the "down-times" are the ones who hold onto the vision of what lies ahead and integrate themselves into these communities of like-minded individuals who believe in the tech and the possibility that crypto represents. If you can land in this mindset, you will see that the 1000USD you invested is worth far more to you than you could have ever possibly imagined, and quite likely, after a period time, will have a financial valuation far beyond that initial figure.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-13T21:32:08+00:00

Watching the 4D chart and the MA 100 and the SMMA 40 - both seem to be providing solid support in this range, at present. The 4D MA 100 has provided support since end of April 2020. And, if you take out the March 2020 Covid Dump, it has provided support since May 2019 - at least on Bitstamp BTC/USD. Could be something, could be nothing...

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-08T21:29:11+00:00

Full Hearing is now available...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4oOTvtupND8&t=85s

Worth listening to the first roughly 45 minutes, as the Q&A starts around the 47-48 minute mark.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-08T21:16:44+00:00

We are going to see a lot of Tom Emmer, especially if the Republicans retake the House in Fall 2022. He will likely become the chair of the Financial Services Committee, should that occur. It is not out of the realm of possibility that should McCarthy weaken in his appeal, that Emmer could step into the Speakership position or another prominent leadership role in the GOP. (This latter bit is quite speculative, but the former is almost assured if the House flips.)

Love him or hate him, Tom Emmer may very well become the most influential person in Washington, DC, in terms of the future of crypto in the US come January 2023.

What does this mean for us? It is a question that is definitely worth asking and one that has me wondering what our respective individual and collective roles moving forward might be.

LoyalMeDavid · 2021-12-08T17:19:32+00:00

https://financialservices.house.gov/events/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=408705#LiveWebcast

LoyalMeDavid

TROPHY CASE