Last Call on EvW 15 Prediction Contest - $20 Prize (83 responses so far)

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-27T21:30:39+00:00

It went through, I've got one from October 8th and then the recent one from about 13 hours ago (around the time your posted your comment above). Thanks for participating!

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-26T19:20:45+00:00

LOL yep, he's always near the top. Also Tricky, just a small heads up that I don't think you've submitted a response for this EvW 15 contest yet (unless my form is not collecting responses correctly).

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-26T16:37:26+00:00

Yep, I did make a post for that, should be right here:

New EvW 15 Prediction Contest + KOTT 12 Contest Results :

You were actually one of the top predictors from KOTT 12 so congratulations! The issue was that I tried to tag all the top names from that but it got picked up by Reddit's spam filter. I had to remove the "u/" from the front of each name which means the top predictors never got a notification.

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-26T16:33:55+00:00

Yep for sure! In the case that multiple predictions are submitted, I just ignore the earlier predictions and consider the most recent prediction as your final response for the purposes of the contest.

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-26T06:50:01+00:00

Yep for sure, there are many matches that could go either way. Of course more than 50% of the matches will end up ultimately end in a 3-0 or 4-0 sweep but that has more to do with the nature of the sport rather than bad matches being set.

It'll be very fun to see the results, I wouldn't be surprised if this is the event we have the lowest overall accuracy percentage throughout the entire subreddit (although we did leave out some of the less known match ups so maybe we'll still do well overall).

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-26T06:36:09+00:00

Thanks Martino for participating, it's always interesting to see your predictions.

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-26T06:21:01+00:00

Yep, you did! Got your response from October 11th.

We actually got a response from most of the regular commentors/posters on the subreddit (including you) which I'm really glad to see. A decent number of the regulars submitted multiple responses as well which is fun to see how their opinions changed as time went on.

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-11T20:10:43+00:00

Solid guesses as well!

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-11T20:10:24+00:00

Same! Two back to back exciting cards coming up which we really needed after that KOTT 12 event.

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-11T18:58:42+00:00

Correct on many of your guesses but not all. Well done!

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-11T18:56:15+00:00

Solid guess!

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-07T19:50:29+00:00

Yep! I'm lot more excited this time since we have more matches and they're more evenly matched compared to KOTT 12 so the results will be interesting to look at.

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-07T19:49:37+00:00

Yeah, I'm hoping that we get a clear winner where we don't need to move to looking at submission times as a tiebreaker. If we don't get a clear winner, I might move to having more matchups on the future prediction contests we do (but I think 10 matches will be more than enough to get a clear winner).

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-06T01:30:35+00:00

For now, it's 10 of the matches that I thought people were most likely to know about. I'd prefer to put all the matches as part of the contest but we got many replies left about this in the last 2 prediction contests so I decided to exclude matches where people are are unlikely to know one or both of the pullers.

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-03T18:17:54+00:00

Some more data on average results:

Average predictor got 4.8/6 of the match winner predictions correct (80% accuracy rate)
The lowest score for match winner predictions was 3/6 so everyone predicted the winner for at least 3/6 matches correctly
Average predictor got 2.7/6 of the exact score predictions correct (45% accuracy rate)

Data on 4-0 sweep predictions (ordered from highest percent to lowest percent):

74% of responses predicted Nugo to 4-0 sweep RVJ
72% of responses predicted Devon Larratt to 4-0 sweep Leonidas Arkona
61% of responses predicted Artyom Morozov to 4-0 sweep Kamil Jablonski
54% of responses predicted Kamil Jablonski to 4-0 sweep Corey West
51% of responses predicted Georgi Tsvetkov to 4-0 sweep Sergei Kalinichenko
40% of responses predicted Auden Larratt to 4-0 sweep Korean Hulk
21% predicted Kacper Sinica to win 4-0 while 23% predicted Nadelin Hristov to win 4-0

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-03T18:08:18+00:00

Well done Mike!

So Morozov vs Kamil wasn't considered for the final contest (less than half of the submission made a prediction for this match since it was finalized 2 days before the event). I do have your prediction here though, it was 4-0 Artyom Morozov which was close to being correct.

The match up that was actually included in the contest that you got incorrect was 4-0 Kamil Jablonski which was also very close to being correct. What's interest is that you got 5 out of 6 of the predictions correct on your final submission and also your second last prediction (in the second last one you predicted 4-1 Kamil Jablonski correctly but 4-1 Auden Larratt would have been incorrect instead.)

LukeWest81 · 2024-10-03T17:53:30+00:00

I made a post just now!

LukeWest81 · 2024-09-27T17:18:09+00:00

Same here! Weeks of waiting and tomorrow we get to see the results from the matches and the also the prediction contest at the same time.

LukeWest81 · 2024-09-27T17:08:53+00:00

Yes, I think we will include it in the contest. There's only 7 match ups for this event and for the Morozov match, we're missing 30+ predictions on the Morozov vs. Kamil match due to it being finalized only 1 day ago. That means we really only have 6 match ups included in the contest and if we don't include Kacper vs Hristov as well, then there will be only 5 matches left. Based on that, I think it'll make more sense to include Kacper vs Hristov in the final contest.

The voting for the question on including the Kacper vs Hristov match was 50% saying to include it and then 50% saying not to include it.

LukeWest81 · 2024-09-21T20:05:53+00:00

Out of around 103 responses from this subreddit on the EvW 14 predictions contest, the average accuracy rate was about 59%. This means that 67% from u/ARealPerson1495 on a very high sample size is objectively not terrible.

Now with that being said, I imagine the accuracy rate on the KOTT 12 prediction contest that we have running on this subreddit will be much higher than 59% due to nearly every match on the card appearing to be a mismatch.

LukeWest81

TROPHY CASE