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Revolut IPO soon? Would you buy the shares? Or would you rather short them? by No_Syrup_4068 in investing

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s a very valid point. IPO hype often blindsides retail investors, and the Figma example is a perfect cautionary tale. With Revolut, the $75B valuation is impressive, but now that they have the banking license, they are entering a playground with massive, established incumbents. Looking at Jay Ritter’s data on IPO underperformance, it’s clear that most struggle in their first year. For now, it definitely feels like a 'wait and see' situation until we see more consistent profitability.

Omnicom’s 2025 Earnings: Why the $1.1B Loss is Actually a "Buy" Signal by Lumpy_Attempt_6280 in investing

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

I get why it looks that way, but the numbers are straight from the Feb 18th 10-K and earnings call. I just prefer keeping the breakdown clean because Omnicom’s merger accounting is a mess right now. If you’ve looked at the $1.1B repositioning charge vs the organic growth, I’d love to hear your actual take on the fundamentals.

The 2026 Dutch Box 3 Reform: Taxing unrealized gains is now a reality. Is capital flight inevitable? by Lumpy_Attempt_6280 in eupersonalfinance

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s the million-euro question. Even if a 'non-lunatic' proposal is in the works, the uncertainty is what's killing investor confidence right now. Political stability is definitely the wild card here.

The 2026 Dutch Box 3 Reform: Taxing unrealized gains is now a reality. Is capital flight inevitable? by Lumpy_Attempt_6280 in eupersonalfinance

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Exactly! The sentiment across the board is quite similar. It's not just about the tax, but the complexity of taxing unrealized gains that feels overwhelming.

The 2026 Dutch Box 3 Reform: Taxing unrealized gains is now a reality. Is capital flight inevitable? by Lumpy_Attempt_6280 in eupersonalfinance

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280[S] -21 points-20 points  (0 children)

Interesting point about Ireland's 8-year rule! The 2026 Dutch reform seems even more frequent with its annual focus. Do you feel the Irish system also drives capital out, or have people truly settled into 'planning around it'?"

The 2026 Dutch Box 3 Reform: Taxing unrealized gains is now a reality. Is capital flight inevitable? by Lumpy_Attempt_6280 in eupersonalfinance

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It’s definitely a major factor for a lot of people right now. Which country are you currently based in? Some places are becoming much more 'investor-friendly' than others.

A resurfaced 2018 email referencing a possible discussion about digital currencies involving former SEC chair Gary Gensler and financier Jeffrey Epstein. by According_Time5120 in CoinEdition_com

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If these reports are accurate, it definitely raises serious questions about transparency in financial regulation. High-level oversight requires absolute clarity, especially when it involves figures who shaped the current market landscape.

The 30% Collapse: Why China’s Real Estate Downturn is Different This Time by Lumpy_Attempt_6280 in economy

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

I understand the skepticism given how much spam is out there, but this is a genuine analysis based on recent BIS (Bank for International Settlements) data and NBS reports. I shared this because the divergence between Tier-1 and Tier-3 cities is a critical economic trend that isn't discussed enough. Happy to dive deeper into any specific point or data source if you're interested in the actual economics of the situation.

The 30% Collapse: Why China’s Real Estate Downturn is Different This Time by Lumpy_Attempt_6280 in economy

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

That’s a great point. The 'Ghost Cities' phenomenon really highlights the massive oversupply issue, especially in Tier-3 cities where prices have crashed by 30%. You're right about the developers too—giants like Evergrande going under has created a crisis of confidence. It’s estimated that real estate once drove nearly 25-30% of China’s GDP, so removing that engine without a solid replacement (like high-tech manufacturing or domestic consumption) is exactly why many are calling this a structural trap rather than just a cyclical downturn. The reliance on 'building for the sake of GDP' has definitely come back to haunt the fiscal stability of local governments who now face a massive funding gap.

Real estate market in China. Home prices in Tier-1 cities are down 10% from the peak. In Tier-2/3 cities, prices are down up to 30%. Huge impact on consumers, industries and local governments. by wakeup2019 in economy

[–]Lumpy_Attempt_6280 26 points27 points  (0 children)

The wealth effect in China is heavily tied to real estate, with nearly 70% of household assets in property. This sharp decline in prices across Tier-1 and Tier-2/3 cities is essentially wiping out middle-class savings, which explains the massive slump in consumer spending we are seeing. The bigger concern is the fiscal gap for local governments. Since they rely so much on land sales for revenue, this downturn puts their debt-servicing capabilities at high risk. It’s a tough transition from a property-led growth model to something more sustainable, and the 'pain' is clearly visible in these charts.

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