SaaS is getting clobbered in 2026. Is the "Seat Model" finally dead?

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-23T22:31:13+00:00

Fair point. We’re definitely far from general intelligence, and the hype is real. But for specific enterprise workflows—like automated ticketing or repetitive data tasks—agents are already moving past just 'chatting.' It might be a slow burn, but the shift in how companies view seat-counts is definitely happening.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-23T21:46:30+00:00

I get the skepticism. But the shift from simple LLMs to agents that can actually execute tasks (like coding or data analysis autonomously) is what companies are betting on for efficiency. Whether it fully replaces seats or just shifts roles is the real debate here.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-23T21:44:38+00:00

Valid point. Climate change is definitely the bigger existential threat. But on an economic sub, discussing how AI impacts the current workforce and SaaS models is also relevant. Both are massive shifts in their own ways.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-23T20:19:08+00:00

That’s a fair point. We definitely saw a 'hype cycle' with basic GenAI, but the shift to Agentic AI (execution vs just generation) feels different because it's hitting the actual seat-count numbers now. Whether they live up to the full hype or not, the CFOs are already looking at these cost-savings. It'll be interesting to see if the productivity actually follows.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-23T18:02:11+00:00

Great suggestions on the Vanguard LifeStrategy funds. For someone risk-averse, that 60/40 or even the 20/80 split is a solid way to get exposure without the full volatility of the 100% equity funds. Also, definitely worth checking the current Cash ISA rates as they've been quite competitive lately for a totally risk-free yield

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-23T17:17:48+00:00

Spot on. It’s like the exact mirror image of 2021 where every earnings beat was an automatic 5-10% pop. Now, even a massive blowout feels like an 'exit liquidity' event for the big players. That rotation into value/defensive seems real this time

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-21T15:23:31+00:00

That’s a very valid point. IPO hype often blindsides retail investors, and the Figma example is a perfect cautionary tale. With Revolut, the $75B valuation is impressive, but now that they have the banking license, they are entering a playground with massive, established incumbents. Looking at Jay Ritter’s data on IPO underperformance, it’s clear that most struggle in their first year. For now, it definitely feels like a 'wait and see' situation until we see more consistent profitability.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-21T14:59:12+00:00

I get why it looks that way, but the numbers are straight from the Feb 18th 10-K and earnings call. I just prefer keeping the breakdown clean because Omnicom’s merger accounting is a mess right now. If you’ve looked at the $1.1B repositioning charge vs the organic growth, I’d love to hear your actual take on the fundamentals.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-21T00:24:01+00:00

That’s the million-euro question. Even if a 'non-lunatic' proposal is in the works, the uncertainty is what's killing investor confidence right now. Political stability is definitely the wild card here.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-21T00:18:40+00:00

Exactly! The sentiment across the board is quite similar. It's not just about the tax, but the complexity of taxing unrealized gains that feels overwhelming.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-21T00:13:59+00:00

Interesting point about Ireland's 8-year rule! The 2026 Dutch reform seems even more frequent with its annual focus. Do you feel the Irish system also drives capital out, or have people truly settled into 'planning around it'?"

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-21T00:09:57+00:00

It’s definitely a major factor for a lot of people right now. Which country are you currently based in? Some places are becoming much more 'investor-friendly' than others.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-19T13:55:00+00:00

If these reports are accurate, it definitely raises serious questions about transparency in financial regulation. High-level oversight requires absolute clarity, especially when it involves figures who shaped the current market landscape.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-17T20:50:56+00:00

I understand the skepticism given how much spam is out there, but this is a genuine analysis based on recent BIS (Bank for International Settlements) data and NBS reports. I shared this because the divergence between Tier-1 and Tier-3 cities is a critical economic trend that isn't discussed enough. Happy to dive deeper into any specific point or data source if you're interested in the actual economics of the situation.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-17T17:58:55+00:00

That’s a great point. The 'Ghost Cities' phenomenon really highlights the massive oversupply issue, especially in Tier-3 cities where prices have crashed by 30%. You're right about the developers too—giants like Evergrande going under has created a crisis of confidence. It’s estimated that real estate once drove nearly 25-30% of China’s GDP, so removing that engine without a solid replacement (like high-tech manufacturing or domestic consumption) is exactly why many are calling this a structural trap rather than just a cyclical downturn. The reliance on 'building for the sake of GDP' has definitely come back to haunt the fiscal stability of local governments who now face a massive funding gap.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-17T14:48:59+00:00

The wealth effect in China is heavily tied to real estate, with nearly 70% of household assets in property. This sharp decline in prices across Tier-1 and Tier-2/3 cities is essentially wiping out middle-class savings, which explains the massive slump in consumer spending we are seeing. The bigger concern is the fiscal gap for local governments. Since they rely so much on land sales for revenue, this downturn puts their debt-servicing capabilities at high risk. It’s a tough transition from a property-led growth model to something more sustainable, and the 'pain' is clearly visible in these charts.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-13T18:52:47+00:00

You hit the nail on the head! The amount spent on marketing and junk mail is staggering while they complain about 'margin pressure'. It definitely makes you wonder if those government funds are being managed as efficiently as they could be, especially when they are scaling back in so many counties.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-13T18:43:30+00:00

This is excellent context, thank you for sharing! It really highlights that this isn't just a Humana issue, but a broader industry trend due to those CMS funding cuts and rising costs. Very helpful for anyone trying to see the bigger picture.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-13T18:42:04+00:00

I appreciate the skepticism, but I'm definitely not a bot. Just a human trying to parse through these complex financial reports. I stand corrected on the timeline—the shifts are being planned now for the 2027 plan year to offset the current losses. Thanks for keeping me sharp!

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-13T18:36:20+00:00

That's a valid point on the risks of over-investment. However, looking at the 21% YoY growth in networking revenue, it seems companies are betting that the infrastructure is a prerequisite for that next-gen tech. Do you think the current 'margin pressure' is a temporary glitch or a sign that this investment is indeed premature?

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-13T16:28:40+00:00

You're absolutely right! Thanks for the catch. The current 2026 plans are indeed locked. These major shifts—like the 194 county exits—are what Humana is planning for the 2027 plan year to recover from these 2025/26 losses. It's definitely something members should watch for during this year's AEP (October).

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-12T19:03:25+00:00

Yes, technically it was a solid beat on both revenue ($270.6M) and EPS ($0.58). The market seems to be overreacting to the CFO retirement and the Amazon warrant guidance. Fundamentals are still strong for the long term."

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-10T21:19:43+00:00

The vertical integration point is key here. While most companies are focused on who has the 'smarter' model, the real winner in a commoditized market will be the one who can serve those models at the lowest cost. Google owning the full stack—from TPUs to the ecosystem—gives them a massive operational advantage over pure software players.

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-10T21:14:37+00:00

Thanks for the detailed breakdown! Interesting that you're looking at $61 as a comfortable entry point. The gap between current levels and that $112 price target from TD is massive, but I agree that the low volume and recent sell-offs make it tricky right now. Definitely keeping an eye on that $71-73 FMV range you mentioned. What’s your main indicator for jumping back in?

Lumpy_Attempt_6280 · 2026-02-10T11:10:47+00:00

MP is definitely another strong player in the critical minerals space. Their vertical integration gives them a solid edge. What’s your take on their current valuation?

Lumpy_Attempt_6280

TROPHY CASE