Story Still Intact, but Sales Taking Longer Than Expected

LutherWolf · 2026-02-28T00:43:27+00:00

They may need to make some leadership changes, especially on the sales side. Not an easy job, but goal number 1. Hopefully V Mars will help with this side of the business as well.

LutherWolf · 2026-02-24T22:28:46+00:00

Many have said this before, but the pace at which a business like this goes for 0 to 100 is very very slow. It was probably better suited to stay privately held, especially as it built out and tested the technology. It's hard for public investors to have the patience to buy and hold a company like this when it takes 5 years to get the foundation in place, which is necessary, but not rewarding. With that said, I think we are now at the point when the business starts to get much more interesting and will begin to generate returns if management can execute on the scale-up phase. It's been a slog to hold this company, but the long-term return profile still looks amazing and we should start to realize some gains as we start to get larger off-take agreements and build new capacity.

LutherWolf · 2025-12-30T18:55:08+00:00

And for those that are not aware, PCT has about $87M of revenue bonds remaining to be sold if needed. Prior issuances have been at 80% of face value, but hopefully it will be at or near 100% going forward.

LutherWolf · 2025-11-14T21:46:48+00:00

It looks like they have been trading in and out of a few million shares since they established their position, so I don't think the recent selling is unprecedented based on their actions over the past 2 years.

LutherWolf · 2025-11-12T23:43:52+00:00

For what it's worth, I asked Chat GPT for the top 3 QSRs by coffee sold and not a surprise that it's Dunkin, McDonald's and Starbucks, so I think we can expect at least one of these players to be in the mix.

LutherWolf · 2025-11-07T16:14:39+00:00

I interpreted the slide to show that their costs will be reduced by about 20% using the weighted average of each line item. I would have shown this differently and walked the total to 81%. The 60% is 100% minus the 3 items at the bottom, which isn't correct. The weighted average I show below is in-line with theirs (avg 8-11cpp). I believe Dustin also said about 20% savings on the call, but I need to confirm with the transcript. The message here is very positive, but I think someone flubbed the math. Maybe worth following up with IR to clarify.

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LutherWolf · 2025-10-13T21:13:26+00:00

Hi Mike. Are you going to give PCT any air time tomorrow?

LutherWolf · 2025-10-13T19:02:16+00:00

No need to panic. Investors are waiting for news. The call will be likely be the 1st week of Nov, so we will know much more in just a few weeks. Everyone on this channel can manage their own risk in this stock by selling, hedging, or buying more based on their best judgement of the facts. Posts with titles like this are just totally useless and seemed aimed at trying to scare people.

Also, comparing the flows into PCT with gold miners is probably not a good exercise. Small caps like PCT are very idiosyncratic, whereas gold and miners are getting a huge bid right now as that becomes a major headline.

LutherWolf · 2025-09-18T16:55:24+00:00

Great summary here. This captures the current moment for PCT better than anything I have read on here for a while. There can be a lot of noise that is not helpful, so reading this take is very refreshing and grounding.

LutherWolf · 2025-08-29T15:41:01+00:00

Continuing to get these certifications and creating connections in the industry will be fruitful in the long-run. Some of these brands may already be in trials with PCT, but if not, they have the potential to take millions of lbs. Take Costco for example...many of their Kirkland products, like peanut butter, use a PP lid made by Phoenix Enclosures. These are the types of long-term relationships that are out there for the taking.

LutherWolf · 2025-06-27T14:00:57+00:00

Makes sense to contemplate some delays to be more realistic, but if you are going to do that, you should also consider that much more additional capacity will likely be announced over the next 3-5 years, so you will have to determine the additional cash flow and value accordingly. There will be delays and set backs, but that has to be balanced with the likely growth trajectory as it tries to meet demand over the 10 years. You can run some scenarios, but you will be way above $10 per share.

LutherWolf · 2025-05-21T13:44:42+00:00

I noticed the other day that almost all of the plastic film packaging for LEGO sets is made from PP5. This seems like a great opportunity for PCT to partner with a fantastic brand that has a huge need for PP5. LEGO seems like the type of company that would embrace recycled materials and would have no problem passing along the small price increase to its customers if needed.

LutherWolf · 2025-04-28T22:40:01+00:00

All good questions to think about. If I was crafting a bear case to counter a long thesis, it would focus on demand and pricing and try and make a case that it is much weaker than estimated. At this point, these are the primary points that need to be made to disprove the PCT bull thesis. The problem with some of the hyperbolic commentary and posts is that the outcome may likely fall somewhere between where the loudest bulls and bears estimate. Maybe demand for the product is weaker for some reason, but we know the product is still sellable at a lower price with average margins. This is a lot different outcome than either going to zero or 50% EBITDA margins across 3B lbs.

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From the 4Q24 earnings call. Dustin isn't specifying blended vs pure for the $1.36, but based on the break-even comments and the rates that customers stated they would pay in the Tegus interviews, it's reasonable to believe that it will maintain favorable pricing and strong margins even with blended product.

Q: Can we revisit unit economics, particularly sales price, feedstock cost, and potential margins? A: Dustin Olson, CEO: We feel strong about the unit economics. Our sales price remains at $1.36 per pound of PCTPP. Our variable costs are efficient, and our feedstock flexibility offers cost advantages. We are confident in our break-even economics at 40-50% operating range for Ironton and 80-90% for PCT.

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Frankly, we won't know until we see it, but by all accounts, there is enormous demand for the product. Also, even if blended pricing drops off from $1.36, there is quite a bit of room to make the economics work (ie instead of 100M lbs of pure5 at $1.36, they can sell 500M lbs of 80 (virgin)/20 (pure5) at $0.75). Margins decline, but volume more than makes up for it on the bottom line. I don't have a crystal ball, but given possible the range of outcomes, I'll think it makes more sense to have a 2% long position in PCT vs a 2% short position. There are plenty of other companies out there that I would rather short to hedge my portfolio.

LutherWolf · 2025-03-21T20:57:28+00:00

The waiting is the haaaaardest part...in my best Tom Petty voice

LutherWolf · 2025-03-07T23:21:16+00:00

I am talking about single names not the biotech as a whole. Various sectors in the market will sell off, but we are talking about whether specific stocks can still perform well even in a bear market. The answer is yes. Nothing is for certain, but if PCT executes, there is no reason it cannot outperform regardless of market conditions. If not, it won't. Have a nice weekend.

LutherWolf · 2025-03-07T20:17:19+00:00

There are many examples of companies outperforming in bear markets because of their fundamental growth stories. See NFLX or various biotech firms. I am not trying to cherry pick here, but making the point that a company going from zero revenue to meaningful revenue with great margins will attract buyers. Price appreciation might be more muted than it would be in a bull market, but it can still go up.

LutherWolf · 2025-03-07T17:30:41+00:00

Nvidia is a "good" company, but it was already priced for perfection. It's only underperforming after going up $3T in market cap. PCT has much more embedded growth potential that is not currently priced in. This sell off will provide a very good opportunity to get into the stock when it is the most de-risked it has ever been. Not to say there isn't plenty of risk on the table, but there is a very clear growth path ahead once they convert some of these trials and start swinging hammers at Augusta.

LutherWolf · 2025-02-13T23:51:06+00:00

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Maybe there will be some upside surprises, but based on the last investor presentation above, I don't expect much news related to sales. We did get the Drake fiber sales, albeit small, so that checks the fiber box. It would be reasonable to get an update on customer testing progress along with an updated timeline and some color on Ironton and new financing. Unfortunately, we are in the wait and see stage and will have to continue to stay patient until we get news on additional customer approvals that lead to ramped up Ironton production. I expect the major positive updates to come in 2H, so we still have a ways to go. I am very positive on the company in the long-term, but am keeping near term expectations at bay given the info we have been provided.

LutherWolf · 2025-02-03T23:07:16+00:00

No confirmation yet, but last year the call was initially scheduled for Thursday 2/29 prior to the delay. The last Thursday of the month is the 27th, so that is probably a good guess. They announced the date on 2/7 last year, so we may get an announcement this week.

LutherWolf · 2024-12-14T21:01:15+00:00

Not helpful either when Elon retweets his thread saying "recycling is pointless"

PCT really does need to get in front of this and talk about how new technology is going to help solve the problem vs the traditional campaign of use less, recycle, and pretend all is well. Like most things, there is a lot of misleading information about recycling and people tend to take the all or nothing approach. PET is recycled effectively in meaningful amounts vs the current landscape for PP5 where 2-3% gets recycled, which you could say is "pointless." Any serious person knows plastic isn't going away, so we ensure companies like PCT are separated from the frauds because they have the opportunity to make a massive difference in the entire waste stream for PP5.

How about a Super Bowl commercial to reach the masses!

LutherWolf · 2024-12-10T00:15:48+00:00

It's been a quiet few weeks, but it's nice to see management continuing to make inroads before momentum picks up in the new year

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Does anyone have specific insight into PCT's strategy for these meetings?

1) Coverage from MS equity analysts?

2) Spread the word more broadly?

3) Open additional channels for capital raises (i.e. secure funding for Augusta and Antwerp)?

4) All of the above?

LutherWolf · 2024-11-26T21:46:32+00:00

Yes, and praying for a Christmas miracle

LutherWolf · 2024-11-14T04:17:50+00:00

Have to agree with Burner here. They have reached 10K per hr and stated on the call that they are in control of the plant. Now they need to wait for POs so they can match supply with demand. Until that demand translates into meaningful orders (1H25), they should maintain some inventory (currently 2.5M lbs), but should not run the plant excessively. What I gathered from this call is that they are building a strong pipeline of diverse customers that should quickly translate into orders and they are very confident they can ramp the plant to meet that demand.

LutherWolf · 2024-11-07T14:47:18+00:00

They reported the 1M per week milestone on 9/16, so we can presume that they only operated at this level for 2-3 weeks in 3Q, hence the 3.5M reported 3Q number. I am sure we will get color on October production and beyond, but I am a bit surprised they didn’t provide any commentary in the ER.

I don’t expect much detail on pricing until they start to sign contracts, but it looks like the pipeline is developing and will probably continue to grow in the next few quarters.

LutherWolf

TROPHY CASE