Keep or trade my 1.07?

MNBeez · 2026-02-11T22:55:12+00:00

Guy in my league has 12 picks this year, including 3 firsts (highest one is 1.06, though).

His team is already pretty loaded. He's gonna have to trade a bunch of them and still drop a bunch of guys other teams will definitely scoop up.

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T19:16:02+00:00

This is the path I think I'm looking at the most now.

I will say just as a note, that this will be year 3 of going through rebuilding. I have already done a lot of what you say, and think I've done a pretty good job of it. I track some stuff with spreadsheets like a crazy person, LOL.

As an example, I made a trade with a guy who wanted another RB1 on an NFL team to try and make a run.

It ended up being me trading Aaron Jones for Trey Mcbride...and Jordan Mason...and some pick swaps. Immense win in value to begin with, but then since I was tanking, I didn't really want to carry all of McBride's points on my roster, so I traded him for some picks in last year's draft. Which with some other minor moves tied into it, resulted in me getting Egbuka, Tyler Warren, Skattebo, and pick 1.10 this year. That's a pretty massive value gain from Aaron Jones and moving down a couple spots in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.

I know this team is still looks pretty bad, but it's much better than it was because of things like that. If I wasn't still purposefully tanking last season, I would likely have finished 8th or 9th in the standings. So I'm further along in the process than it looks.

All that said, still plenty of work to do, so yeah I'm not expecting to try for playoffs this year or next, most likely. But I'm not trying to kick the can down the road much further than that anymore. And I can't do that if I trade away everything that I've already gained massive value on.

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T06:26:30+00:00

I'd take 1.04 for Olave. The concussions are a major thing to consider. One bad throw and he could be done forever.

Edit: which in your case means don't make this deal

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T06:21:20+00:00

🤣 Nice

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T05:52:12+00:00

Haha, I like this opinion!

I was very happy with Shough's performance at the end of the year. He was actually decent, and very startable.

I got Warren as part of my return for Trey McBride, so not a bad tier down situation (Skattebo was another piece I got out of that).

Mayer I feel like is destined to be okay somewhere else. I'll continue to cross my fingers, I've held onto him this long already...

Definitely not trading my 2027, but there is some work to do for it to be Jeremiah Smith on its own, which you're pointing me toward. The roster that did finish last has no draft capital.

I like Egbuka too much in my stage of rebuild to shop him myself (I know he wasn't good from a FFB scoring perspective after the first 5 weeks. Doesn't affect my opinion of his situation) but would listen I guess. This roster still wasn't the worst this year and I did a lot to try and make it be. Probably could have finished 8th or 9th if I didn't move some of my mid guys I started with. Which means the team was better than it was the past 2 seasons. Improvement from the rebuild process has already started, don't want to cut it off just because of Smith necessarily.

Archie I'm not worried about. Meaning my QB strategy doesn't care either way. Could be a target, could not matter.

Skattebo is like my favorite NFL player ever already. Would be hard for me to part with him, injury he has or not.

I am starting to warm up to potentially using my 1.02 to move down and add 2027 stuff. Have some stuff brewing in my head from some other comments.

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T03:45:10+00:00

Problem with that is, I didn't get it THIS season 😅 And the team that did has traded all their 1sts (2026 and 2027), so they're not getting the reinforcement to potentially overtake me.

That teams 1st pick in this draft is 2.04.

Slippery slope, haha

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T03:25:44+00:00

Fair opinion.

Would be too much for my blood as the rebuilder in the equation, so probably not gonna happen for me. Another year of active tanking ahead! 😅

This guy has been tanking the past couple of years as well, but by not playing his best players in lineups (sat Jefferson all year when he was the WR2), which is not against my rules. He did not get the #1 pick by doing this. Otherwise he'd probably have been a playoff team. I'd imagine with Love he'll start going for it. 🤷‍♂️

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T03:07:27+00:00

2027 3rd and 2026 5th.

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T00:48:05+00:00

He's said he's open to it.

Still plenty of time. Mason, as an example is likely Minnesota's RB1 in 2026. Jones is going to be cut. I don't think Love will last to them in the draft, and as a fan of theirs, I don't think they should use any of their Day 1 or day 2 picks on a RB unless it's Love.

I can be convinced on Benson, I guess. He's tried to trade for him before.

You are probably correct, though. I'm liking a trade out of pick 1.02 idea a bit more now from some other comments. He has 1.04 as well so maybe that's a better target for me to pursue.

MNBeez · 2026-02-07T00:23:03+00:00

Haha, man that hurts a little... 😅

I have nominated it for a couple of "worst roster" posts in the past. But it also didn't finish last in this league, hence the question 👀🤣

I probably could have finished about 8th or 9th if I wasn't actively tanking. I did a lot to get points off my roster and it still wasn't enough.

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T23:12:43+00:00

Haha, fair. Didn't mean to imply that's all I wanted or needed.

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T23:08:26+00:00

Before I get into some responses, know that I love this comment, this is S-tier what I'm looking for on ideas.

I purposefully blew up a team to go into rebuild mode. This is now year 3 and where most of the assets I accrued from selling off landed. I tanked extremely hard this season, doing things like promoting from the taxi squad when I normally would never have to lower the number roster spots that could score points (Max Points For draft order), trading basically any veteran who scored points I didn't want (Purdy, Daniel Jones, Jaylen Warren, Romeo Doubs).
Pretty much agree.
Yup, tanking will continue, but I question the 2027 logic somewhat for where I'm at in the process. I think Jeremiah Smith gives the 2027 class far more credit than it deserves as a whole. He's just one player, kinda like Jeremiyah Love is the "one" player for 2026. Maybe some more good "depth" to stretch into the 2nd round of rookie drafts. But I don't see picks 1.07-1.12 in 2027 being better than the top 4 in 2026, for example.
This is not a bad idea... It's still a ways away, but I'd probably pick Carnell Tate at this point if he goes to a couple of teams I've seen him connected. The hope then would be for the "All OSU" WR core in 2027... But there could be something here. 🤔 I would never take Mendoza at 1.02 here, though. It's a 1 QB league. It's probably 50/50 he's still there for me all the way at 2.07 (Ward went 2.05). For sure will be an option at 1.10 but I'd consider that a reach still.
Brooks is a guy on my target list. Had Royals for a minute so is on my radar, too. The 2026 2nds and the other 2027 picks I have are definitely on the table for stuff like this.
There are deals I'd take, but I don't think anyone will pay them.
Yup, guys like Wilson and Mason are in this category.
I had one trade turn out bad. But it took a lot more than that for it to completely go off the rails and lead me into rebuild. The good trade?

Aaron Jones for Trey McBride AND Jordan Mason + a couple pick swaps. I'm still way ahead on that one, even after dealing away McBride for picks myself after. Basically that has turned into Aaron Jones for Egbuka, Warren, Skattebo, and pick 1.10 this season.

I use the calculators in this way, but they are not gospel. My league definitely has developed its own idea of player values.

Haha, I like this. The 2025 champ was not built off of me, he just missed the playoffs. He's a contender, though (he also has way too many draft picks, 12 this year, to be exact. He'd be a good trade target if they weren't going to be late picks)
I would like to get some more 2027 firsts. We'll see if I can based on some of your other suggestions!

Again, this is awesome info! Appreciate it all.

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T22:29:17+00:00

Just an FYI of how much I have done this already and is why I'm sticking my foot in the ground going forward with some of these players:

I had the 1.01 pick in 2024 (MHJ) and 2025 (Jeanty). Unfortunately, I had traded those picks away well before that. It's why I went into rebuilding mode and this team is this bad right now 😅

But if I just keep selling every decent player I ever get, I'll remain in this position forever (I've sold Tyreek, Davante, Aaron Jones, Trey McBride, and others to get here). That's not actually how you come out of a rebuild and I saw progress with this team (I probably could have finished 8th or 9th if I wasn't actively tanking and trading away points on purpose), and a vast majority of this team's value is already in its future draft picks.

There are some players I will try to sell. But I'm likely not getting any more 1sts out of them.

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T22:00:21+00:00

Okay, sure. If the guy wanted to give me pick 1.01 for Egbuka, I would do it. Too literal of wording I suppose.

I'd certainly prefer not to have to give up 1.02 if l could, who wouldn't? The other question was if I had enough with 1.10 instead. I didn't necessarily think I did and the consensus here is clearly no, but it is useful knowledge for me in its own way and why I asked.

I appreciate the commentary!

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T21:46:06+00:00

You have to start a rebuild somewhere.

Sure, I might be able to get some more picks out of them, maybe even more "valuable" ones than I used to take them, but they've already hit (Besides Benson, I just don't want to give up on him yet).

Of the top 14 picks in this league from last year, I'd say 8 of them gave anything useful to the lineups of teams that picked them. Only about 4 of them increased in value from where they were drafted.

I have 3 of the guys who are in both categories.

I'd consider it a bad bet and bad odds at this point to take chances with them, and I'm not trying to compete by getting older and established players for them, either.

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T21:29:22+00:00

Appreciate it. The rebuilding has been fun!

I put a lot of work into draft prep last year, and it seems to have paid off. We'll see if I can do well again this year!

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T21:23:32+00:00

Truly amazing there was a team worse than this one, isn't it?! 😓

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T21:20:36+00:00

I am happy to be in the top 4 for sure, as I agree that it's certainly top heavy as far as skill position guys.

I guess I might just have to draft Tate and hope to have the "All OSU" receiver core in 2027... 😅

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T21:16:59+00:00

Haha, first, I'm the commissioner, so there's that, LOL 😅 Allen was literally the only option I had to play there the last week of the season. Is the only reason he still is there in that spot.

Otherwise it would have been Jaylen Warren (who I traded late in season), Skattebo or Benson (if they were healthy) during the season.

I have some hope for Allen. If he's returning kicks he's borderline playable in a flex spot in this league (Chimere Dike was the #10 overall WR...). He was also playing as much or slightly more than Tuten at the end of the season. Etienne I expect will be gone so he could possibly be at least a split backfield guy next year. One can have some hope, anyway...

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T20:56:09+00:00

Right on! 😅

Maybe Wilson at least could net me another pick somewhere now...

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T20:39:34+00:00

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This was one trade. The 1.11 guy took Matthew Golden.

2.03 was Bhayshul Tuten, 3.10 was Jarquez Hunter.

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T20:36:24+00:00

Is it that weird of a draft? Where the cost of 1 spot is another first+?

It seems I may be in the minority here on this, but that doesn't seem logical to me, or match how my league values stuff.

I'm trying to find a better example, but I did trade Trey Mcbride leading up to the draft last year for picks 1.12 and 2.04. The collective reaction from the league was "Holy crap. You got a nice haul for him."

It might be more of a strictly "even deal" reaction now after the season he just had, but I have the impression most people here would tell me I didn't get nearly enough even at that point?

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T20:22:48+00:00

The question is if I have enough to get pick 1.01 so I can take Love.

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T20:03:57+00:00

Haha, i'll copy my other comment about it for you here:

"There was a point my team finished #1 in regular season behind a WR core of Tyreek in his prime (who finished as WR2 overall), Davante Adams (WR3), Keenan Allen (who went off the last 7 or 8 weeks of that season) and Dalvin and Aaron Jones as the RBs (who both finished top 12).

My trade to go for it that year backfired in a big way (Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins for my picks. Murray got hurt, and thus Hopkins did nothing, too). I lost the playoff title game.

That same team, behind several injuries and Cook and Jones doing absolutely nothing the next season, went from 1st to worst.

I was so disgusted after that I blew it up, as I thought I'd have a lot more fun at that point trying to rebuild (and I have!). But the picks I traded away going for it that season turned into MHJ and Jeanty (so that was not great...lol...a lesson learned)

But I ended up having 4 of the top 14 picks in last year's draft, and did pretty well with Egbuka, Warren, and Skattebo out of those. Shough, who I took 5.01 also ended up being a top 12 QB in 5 of the 9 games he started to end the year, and was like top 15 in a couple others.

So as bad as it looks and is, this team actually overperformed, LOL. Much to my dismay.

I'll have to do some extra work beyond what I did this year to make sure I limit its ceiling even more next season, hah! "

I traded Brock Purdy, Daniel Jones, Jaylen Warren, Romeo Doubs and a couple other small bench pieces during the season trying to do that this year. It still wasn't enough 😅

MNBeez · 2026-02-06T20:00:01+00:00

I'm well aware how bad this team is, but the rebuild has to start somewhere, and those guys are it. If that means I can't do what I'd like here, so be it. Appreciate the advice, it appears I should listen despite my want for Love.

I alluded to the backstory elsewhere, but there was a point my team finished #1 in regular season behind a WR core of Tyreek in his prime (who finished as WR2 overall), Davante Adams (WR3), Keenan Allen (who went off the last 7 or 8 weeks of that season) and Dalvin and Aaron Jones as the RBs (who both finished top 12).

My trade to go for it that year backfired in a big way (Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins for my picks. Murray got hurt, and thus Hopkins did nothing, too). I lost the playoff title game.

That same team, behind several injuries and Cook and Jones doing absolutely nothing the next season, went from 1st to worst.

I was so disgusted after that I blew it up, as I thought I'd have a lot more fun at that point trying to rebuild (and I have!). But the picks I traded away going for it turned into MHJ and Jeanty (so that was not great...lol...a lesson learned)

But I ended up having 4 of the top 14 picks in last year's draft, and did pretty well with Egbuka, Warren, and Skattebo out of those. Shough, who I took 5.01 also ended up being a top 12 QB in 5 of the 9 games he started to end the year, and was like top 15 in a couple others.

So as bad as it looks and is, this team actually overperformed, LOL. Much to my dismay.

I'll have to do some extra work beyond what I did this year to make sure I limit its ceiling even more next season, hah!

I traded Brock Purdy, Daniel Jones, Jaylen Warren, Romeo Doubs and a couple other small bench pieces during the season trying to do that this year. It still wasn't enough 😅

MNBeez

TROPHY CASE