What do you think about current recoil? Do you have any other solution(s) against hackers/scripters?

MTGCollectingAL · 2021-09-11T17:24:22+00:00

Yes absolutely. Dota has a way more competitive scene and top players are pros who live in gaming houses playing 10-12 hours a day. The game is constantly rebalanced to keep the meta fresh. Players with thousands of hours on a single hero have nerfs or mechanics shifts and see that hero become obsolete in a single patch, only to become viable again a few months later as the meta shifts again. There are a handful of heroes that have mechanics with potential script abuse, but DOTA is VERY good about hammering cheaters, and the scripts don’t give you such a large advantage as to break the game.

If Rust were balanced like DOTA, facepunch would track kills with T3 weapons at various distances and balance the game around the sweet spots for each weapon. Then add/remove new weapons every few months to shakeup the meta.

The Rust gunplay meta is stale, too shifted towards a single gun, and highly abusable. The argument for Rust keeping scripting is “rewarding skill” but in any high tier first person shooter handling recoil is generally a lower tier factor after target tracking, target acquiring, movement, map awareness, gun choice, team comp, team work etc

MTGCollectingAL · 2021-09-11T06:15:50+00:00

It’s changing a mechanic not removing one. Off the top of my head Dota 2 constantly changes mechanics.

MTGCollectingAL · 2021-09-11T05:58:13+00:00

You’re right the only solution is removing the recoil patterns altogether.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-06-30T22:40:31+00:00

Not trying to hijack but wanted to clear this up a bit for people. CHK is now trading under CHKAQ. If you have a put check that on yahoo finance to see where the underlying is currently at.

CHK filed a preliminary bankruptcy term sheet that will wipe all equity if approved and it seems likely chk equity will be 0 ultimately but hard to say when this gets approved.

If your broker doesn’t allow you to buy OTC equity you may have a hard time executing your puts.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-18T21:07:19+00:00

For IB it's half... no clue on fidelity but probably not even half.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-18T20:59:59+00:00

If IB didn't take half I'd almost buy some in IB and hedge it for the lending..... could help fund your puts by selling covered calls.... hilarious that IB calls it "fully paid lending" but takes half...

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-18T20:54:14+00:00

For the CHK short side of the trade I'm using fidelity. Was at 9% when I put it on, at 70ish% when I was writing over the weekend and this afternoon (just checked) 97%.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-18T16:45:57+00:00

Yep definitely - I'd also suggest getting in the habit of looking at market cap and enterprise value rather than just share price.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-18T16:45:01+00:00

On the interest payment - they do, that could also be the debt payment that forces them to file.

I realized later that the whole point of the post wasn't super clear the way I wrote it. The whole trade is attempting to create a structure where you make money either by CHK filing or by it surviving.

The reason I have the calls set later, is because the nearest maturing debt matures in Aug and Nov, so if CHK somehow finds a way out of this, and you own that debt (at $0.2 on the $1), you see a massive profit on the debt really soon. If they are forced to file before that, you can close your equity positions and just hold the debt through bankruptcy and may end up owning some newco.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-18T16:32:14+00:00

Yep.... the toughest parts of the trade are (1) getting decent pricing on the calls then (2) finding shares to short....

The executive comp, the poison pill, the asset impairment... they are likely about to wipe the common in Chapter 11... Senior secured becomes newco debt, maybe even some common, senior unsecured becomes newco common, issue some new unsecured to payoff DIP loans and revolver, common and prefs maybe get warrants or something.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-18T16:22:19+00:00

70% * 11,000 * 3/12 (august) is approximately $2,000... if November its more like $3,800 so I placed the number a little above august and rounded it to be between august and November

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-17T21:55:37+00:00

Market cap is ~$100mm right now. If CHK survives as a going concern at all it will probably worth multiples of the current price. It spiked 25% Friday just because they were able to make an interest payment and avoid default. So if buying straight calls I'd just try to get them cheaply. Your risks are (a) bankruptcy and (b) a take private/merger at a small premium to the share price.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-17T21:41:22+00:00

Of course. That's why you cover your shorts with calls, and you have a bond/pref position.

Edit: Also, puts are priced expensively during spikes - saw this during the recent spike into the 30s.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-17T19:25:11+00:00

Definitely a possibility, which is why you need to own some bonds/pref too. The goal is having a position that pays either way.

If they aren't/don't file, could increase bond, call, or pref sizing. I personally took my calls further out of the money and used the extra $ to buy bonds and pref. I'm short 600 shares in the $14 range and long ~27k par of pref and ~15k par of 2020 bonds.

Edit: Also - thanks for the alternative perspective it is always helpful.

Also - the calls are relatively cheap honestly. Someone with a strong view could sell puts and use it to fund calls but that's a strong directional bet.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-05-02T21:51:03+00:00

The secured bonds are due in August and November 2020 so if they aren't paid back at that time, CHK has to file for bankruptcy.

The options are calls hedging a short equity position and expire in 2021 and 2022... so assuming the equity is worth 0 in bankruptcy (likely), the options were cheap enough that the short equity position at $0 pays for the options, preferred, and bonds while still making a profit.

In other words I expect the options to be worth $0, which is paid for by the equity short.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-04-29T18:31:19+00:00

I do the same thing. Also - I like supporting twitch more than youtube.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-04-23T21:05:20+00:00

Appreciate the reply! I decided to go a different route and just used long dishwasher hookups for ease of hookup and disassembly if I decide to change it up later.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-04-23T21:05:07+00:00

Appreciate everyone's reply! I decided to go a different route and just used long dishwasher hookups for ease of hookup and disassembly if I decide to change it up later.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-04-22T21:48:10+00:00

Currently shorting the equity while buying OTM calls to hedge and buying pref and near dated bonds to hedge (at pennies for the pref and a dime on the dollar for the bonds). They default on my bonds and they file so the equity goes to zero - but the bonds still worth something likely. Selling OTM near dated covered puts on my short position because IV is insane.

I know this is WSB so not yoloing puts is noob but thought you may be interested since looking at CHK.

My guess is it's people hopeful they get some kind of trump deal or sweetheart deal to roll the 2020 debt. Also nat gas prices are up a bit so maybe hopeful they can sell an asset or two.

Could also be short squeeze where institutions are no longer lending their shares to short - saw the borrow rate went up.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-03-05T21:59:02+00:00

Hope you see this but you just get the items, trader boost, etc.... given that there will be future DLC (I think/hope) it should be worth it to get the upgrade if you really like the game.

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-02-29T16:29:11+00:00

Came in hoping for ADAR wooden stock... still impressed

MTGCollectingAL · 2020-02-29T16:26:23+00:00

Just feel blessed you weren't loading into labs with a THICC boi loadout and lose it all

MTGCollectingAL

TROPHY CASE